Air Moe(IRE) Stakes to showcase turfers
Viriginia gives the juveniles a rest this week, shifting the focus to three year old routers for this week’s Air Moe(IRE) Stakes. The race invites all three year olds, and will run over ten furlongs of turf. The weather held beautifully this week, and the track is rated as firm for this $60000 stakes race. This is the third annual running of the stakes, and it tends to be feast or famine for the runners. Three of nine runners have gone on to stakes glory, while the other six found themselves running in claims down the line. Last year’s edition was won by Minor Miracle, a relatively untested colt in only his third start, who has gone on to win two more stakes, including one at Grade III, in only fourteen starts. This year’s race has only drawn four entries, but it looks to be a tightly matched field. Oddsmakers have chosen a 7/5 favorite, and the rest of the field is sandwiched between 2/1 and 3/1 odds. Looks like pickings are going to be slim again at the betting window, with these odds, but on the positive side, it should make for a a very excitig race.
PP 1) Sworn Private(KY) Sired by Eddington, Trained by trotter8. Sworn Private(KY) takes the gate for his eleven career start here. This will be his second try in stakes company, and he is still seeking his first stakes win. Overall in his first ten start, he has posted a record of 2-0-5-1-0, with a best speed of 93.7, which he earned in his last start. That run was an A3L at eight and a half furlongs, where he finished fourth, with his close kicking in way too late to bring him into contention. He started his career on dirt, suffering several near misses and average speeds, but he has blossomed with a switch to turf this year, with two wins and steadily improving speeds in his last five. He has run three times at this distance with mixed results, though tow of three have been very nice runs, netting him a place and a show. He has been experimenting with start speeds, but seems to prefer running from midpack. His close was looking very good earlier in the season, but he has bounced his last two, one of them where he got stuck in a field of deep closers and wasn’t sure how to react to finding himself out front early. His speeds are comparable with this field, and are on the rise. There is not a lot of early speed here and that isn’t a positive aspect. His experience at this distance is a plus though. He should still be threatening late here.
PP 2) Chicagoland(KY) Sired by Saarland, Trained by olympiafie. Chicagoland(KY) sees action for the fifteenth time here. This will be his first try at stakes level. In his last ten starts he has earned a record of 2-2-2-0-3, with a top speed figure of 91.4 earned two starts back. His last run was a ten furlong A3x in Ohio, where he finished third closing down the stretch, but not nearly hard enough. He is another colt that found new life on turf after spending most of his two year old season on dirt. He has only finished out of the money once in his last nine runs on grass. Distance wise, this colt is hard to gauge. Looking at his performance overall, though, his jump seems to start late for a closer, and it looks like he may be looking for more distance than he even has here. He runs as a deep closer, and his close has been very consistent. As stated above though, he has a tendency to jump rather late, and that has hurt him in some of his recent starts. The positive thing for him here is the lack of blazing early speed. That should put hi in closer than it normally would in the late going, and give his close a chance to be more effective. He’ll need a jump in speed to win this one here, but it’s not totally out of the question.
PP 3) Bowel Movement(ENG) Sired by Rainbow Quest, Trained by hawk10. Bowel Movement(ENG) draws the oddsmakers’ nod here in his fourteenth career start. This is his second try at stakes level, and he is still looking for that first stakes win. He has been on a roll as of late with four wins and a place in his last five. His last ten have netted him a 4-1-0-1-1 record, as well as a best speed figure of 102.0 earned two starts back. His last race was an A2x effort in North Carolina where he crushed a field of six by over six lengths in a twelve furlong race. This colt has been a turfer from day one. He has tried dirt, just to say he did, but turf is his preferred surface, beyond a doubt. His las run at twelve furlongs was his longest by a goodly margin and he acquitted himself well, but it was also on an off track. He tends to start at the head of the mid pack, and in this one, that good very well put him out front early. He has posted some of the best speeds in this field, but they have also been in lower value races. He has taken well to his new trainer and has run by far his best over his last four. If he runs like he has been, he will be hard to beat here
PP 4) William Thomas(KY) Sired by Yonaguska, Trained by lamepony. William Thomas(KY) will make his twelfth career start in this race. He has one previous stakes win, which came late last year. In his first eleven, he boasts a 3-0-1-3-3 record, and a top speed number of 90.6 earned in the start before last. His last run was an A3x at six furlongs on dirt in Michigan, where he finished fourth holding his same position pretty much through out the race. This colt has been primarily a dirt runner, but he has acquitted him self well in both of his previous turf starts. This will be his longest start by half a furlong, and his best range seems to be the seven to seven and a half range. He runs as a midpack to deep closer, but his close has been spotty at best. That added distance could be a help in this regard. In his last run close to this distance, he broke too early and couldn’t hold it down the stretch. He’ll be in the same situation here, with the relatively leisurely early pace. He doesn’t seem particualrly fond of this track either. He will need to rely on stamina to be a factor here, and he hasn’t proven he has what it takes yet.