Finding Treasure Will Be a Trial

Portugal’s Grade III Little Momma Debutante, now in its eighth running, is one of the oldest graded stakes in the Sim.  As you might expect, it has attracted some nice runners in its history.

Inaugural winner Newbie’s Dream went on to win two more graded stakes and a million dollars, but more importantly has had great success as a dam for the keryn barn.  Meet the Legend, the winner in 2002, went on to amass over $2 million in earnings and seven graded stakes wins after her Little Momma win.

While the winners have come from a variety of prep races and have won with a variety of styles, only one longshot has managed a win.  Sahm’s Halo, 2003’s winner at 15-1, was recently seen in a $4000 claimer.

Last year’s winner, Kneel Before Zod may go on to surpass them all.  She has stretched out and switched to grass and is now the number four rated filly in her division.

Statistically, this year’s edition seems dominated by the favorite, Trial an Treasure, but there are other promising fillies to consider.

Here is a look at the field:

1. AURORA AT SEA(KY) (NORTHERN AFLEET x SOUTHERN HALO x MUMMY’S PET(GB)) bred and trained by Kindnews (6%)  Odds: 7-1

She’s been improving by leaps and bounds, and the jump in class after her listed win last time looks like a reasonable place to be.  It doesn’t seem she beat much in that last race (other than the number six filly in this field), and none of her rivals have raced since, so that doesn’t help our confidence that they were better than they seemed.  Both of her wins came wire to wire and she looks to have quite a bit of front end pressure here.  We love that she’s getting better and her speed figure last time is second only to the chalk’s.

2. PINKIE STAR(KY) (STAR DABBLER x MR. PROSPECTOR x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by Simart (8%)  Odds: 4-1

Also shows steady improvement.  She broke her maiden last time in her third try, but she might welcome seeing the smaller, if more accomplished field here.  She will appreciate the likely speed duel.  Low cost freshman sire has but nine runners, of which Pinkie is the one with the most promise at this stage.  Trainer is a crafty veteran looking for a star for the barn.  This one might be it. 

3. FLEET INDIAN(KY) (INDIAN CHARLIE x AFLEET x DAMASCUS) bred and trained by Harnootz (6%)  Odds: 11-1

Here is a nice pattern:  Fleet Indian’s speed figures have improved by 13 points each time.  One more improvement of that magnitude makes her one to be reckoned with here.  She fell behind an early leader in her listed race last time and maintained her place for an even second.  There are reasons for the long odds: she exits a four-filly listed stakes where she couldn’t win and moves to face a larger and much better field. 

4. MEAN GIRL(KY) (CAME HOME x MACHIAVELLIAN x STORM BIRD) bred by tropicount5, trained by gg (16%)  Odds: 4-1

Neither of the last two Little Momma winners won their prep races – but both exited some tough fields.  Mean Girl split the field last time in the Grade I Hoserhead, where she faced the number one rated two-year-old filly.  Her time was competitive, and she faces a smaller and slightly weaker field today.  She figures to get first run at any speed duel that breaks down.  A speed duel is a clear possibility.

5. TRIAL AND TREASURE(KY) (MINESHAFT x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by Oaklawn88 (17%)  Odds: 9-5

Here’s the easy part.  Why she wins:  This race has been kind to low-odds fillies in its past; Her earnings per race are three times as large as any other here; She’s ranked number six in the division – the second highest rated filly is 87^th; Exiting a Grade II win, she is stepping down in class; She has the highest speed figure lifetime and last out; She has impressive breeding and runs for a high percentage barn.  OK.  Why she loses: Top jock opts for another, and she’s left with one that has never won this race; Early runner will face early pressure; Although she’s showing improvement, others are showing a greater rate of improvement.  Have I discouraged any bettors?

6. EE BRIGHT LIGHT(JPN) (FANTASTIC LIGHT x WILD AGAIN x SUNDAY SILENCE) bred and trained by Autumnwind (13%) Odds: 5-1

After winner her debut, this filly has been satisfied to finish in the money in her next four races.  In fact, she’s been the beaten favorite in three of those races.  The finish behind Aurora at Sea last time makes us willing to pass on this one as a win bet, but any exotic that doesn’t include her seems very risky.

7. SUBURBIA(KY) (SPEIGHTSTOWN x HOUSEBUSTER x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by Goody (9%)  Odds: 11-1

Half of the field has been posting speed figures in the 80’s.  Suburbia’s top figure of 70 is a tough one to inspire confidence.  So let’s try to inspire some.  All of her races have been right here in Portugal.  We like that, but we aren’t inspired yet.  Two year olds mature even while they aren’t racing.  Frequently the one who has been away from the races longest will wrongly be ignored in the betting because of small figures.  Suburbia has had the longest layoff in the field.  Maybe she’s ready to run in the upper 80’s today?

Finally, let’s note that she’s lost to some fillies that have gone on to improve in subsequent races.

8. ROCK OF CAUSEWAY(AUS) (FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DANASINGA (AUS))  bred and trained by Jarrod4 (9%)  Odds: 12-1

This longest shot in the race continues her pattern of running further each race.  She also continues her pattern of being a longshot.  Despite her odds, she’s been competitive against some tough competition, and she’ll try again here.  Her style of sitting just off the pace may help her pick up some places late.  Promising and reasonably priced sire already has a pair of two-year-old stakeswinners.  This one will pick up her second win before long – only question is what level that win will come at.

Summary:  Trial and Treasure looks like a very legitimate favorite.  With that pace scenario in place, let’s recommend: Trial and Treasure / Pinkie Star / EE Bright Light.