Game Mares and Sire Influence…Improving the Game Mare
We have all read the Message Board threads about breeding and sires. The questions about the Game Mare influence and sires being bred to stakes or graded stakes winning Game Mares is always a topic for debate. Do the top Sires, usually the most expensive, make the best breeding prospects, or is their success directly related to the success of the Game Mare, perhaps a combination of both.
I want to explore is Sire value and see what sires improve a Game Mare.
My study begins with ten (10) sires randomly picked from the top 100 sires in the game. My research involved the top 999 offspring from each Sire. From that list I selected only the offspring that were bred from Game Mares. I then broke that list down to only the Graded winners produced by that sire from Game Mares.
These are the results:
DISTORTED HUMOR has produced 78 graded winners from Game Mares. Forty Two (42) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 53%, meaning 47% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. I see a balance there.
GHOSTZAPPER has produced 56 graded winners from Game Mares. Thirty-three of (33) those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 58%, meaning 42% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Perhaps partially helped along by his Game Mares.
ELUSIVE QUALITY has produced 36 graded winners from Game Mares. Sixteen (16) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 44%, meaning 56% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Does maintain a slight dominance over his Game Mares.
ZENSATIONAL has produced 18 graded winners from Game Mares. Five (5) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is only 27%, meaning 73% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. He certainly improves his Game Mares by a wide majority.
WAR FRONT has produced 24 graded winners from Game Mares. Twenty-four (24) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 62%, meaning 38% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Might need a strong female presence to excel.
HARD SPUN has produced 23 graded winners from Game Mares. Eleven (11) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 47%, meaning 53% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Based on his number of graded winners, he ranks better than WAR FRONT at improving the Game Mare.
INVINCIBLE SPIRIT has produced 29 graded winners from Game Mares. Eleven (11) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 37%, meaning 63% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Another sire that dominates his Game Mares.
MORE THAN READY has produced 34 graded winners from Game Mares. Twenty (20) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 58%, meaning 42% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Similar results to GHOSTZAPPER.
CURLIN has produced 36 graded winners from Game Mares. Seventeen (17) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 47%, meaning 53% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. One of the better top echelon sires at improving the Game Mare.
SUPER SAVER has produced 4 graded winners from Game Mares. All four (4) of those graded winners were bred to stakes or graded winning Game Mares. That is 100%, meaning 0% were bred to non-stakes winning mares. Ranks at the bottom of this list.
One might conclude from this study that Sires like ZENSATIONAL, whose graded winners came from 73% non-stakes winning Game Mares, and INVINCIBLE SPIRIT, whose graded winners came from 63% non-stakes winning Game Mares, present more value from a financial and breeding standpoint, and perhaps are deserving of being bred to stakes and graded stakes winning mares.
The direct opposite of this theory, although a small sample sire, is SUPER SAVER, who appears fully dependent on the strength on his Game Mares.
You can see that sires like WAR FRONT, GHOSTZAPPER, and MORE THAN READY are helped by a strong female line when breeding. This is not to say that these sires are over-rated, it can simply be a case of top sires like these are routinely bred to top mares and there aren’t enough bred to sub-stakes level mares to draw a definitive conclusion.
While I won’t conclude, or even suggest, that ZENSATIONAL and INVINCIBLE SPIRIT are better sires than the likes of WAR FRONT, GHOSTZAPPER, and MORE THAN READY, I think it is safe to say, based of the information presented, that they are worthy of being bred to stakes and graded winning Game Mares.
This is only a small portion of my study; I am hoping for any feedback the readers can provide before going forward. Poke holes into the statistics, make suggestions. I need your input to fine tune my research.
Interesting article! I think you identify one of the problems with your study – what % of all mares bred to each sire were high class runners. The other issue you have to contend with is where in a mare’s reproductive cycle is she being bred to these stallions. I’m not wasting my 100 credit first breeding to send my recently retired G1 winner to Zensational. But three allowance winning foals later I know she’s an ok producer but I’m not gonna shell out big money to breed her again. Whereas War Front likely sees more maiden mares who were high class runners. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will be good producers though.
I agree, for first time mares, from a financial standpoint, you would take the opportunity to use the upper echelon Sires like War Front and Distorted Humor etc. They have a proven track record with graded and stakes winning mares. The second and third time around, where the cost to use the mare is doubled the sire price, horses the likes of Zensational, who are considerably cheaper, should merit consideration.
One thing you need to do – you have to check the family from the stakes winners from allowance level mares. Have those mares produced other black type winners? If so, then the mare should be counted as providing a higher influence.
that is a good point…in my research I noticed a couple of HOF mares that never won a stakes race, so obviously they earned their HOF status via Broodmare success.
what criteria would you set for non stakes/graded winning game mares that produced other black type winners?
I would just take two of the sires, maybe Ghostzapper and More than Ready since they had like stats. Look at those allowance winning mares and see how many of them were black type producers. This will alter the % breakdown of your conclusion. Now will it be a by a little or a lot? Who knows. An even better sire breakdown, and close to AEI in real life is to look at mare who have multiple stakes winners and look at the sires. Which were more successful? Which got the graded winners and which had open stakes winners?
My non scientific, highly subjective experience has been that the mare’s breeding is FAR FAR FAR FAR FAR more important than her race record. The one exception is well bred mares who plain sucked on the track. They generally do not produce well. But I must say that at least two extremely sucky mares did produce graded winners. I remember them because I covered their babies in graded events for the BTB.
I will take a well bred allowance winning mare over a modestly bred graded stakes winning mare every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Bill, from a personal standpoint, I tend to breed first to Stakes and Graded winning game mares, next to well-bred games mares that have a good on track performance, stakes placed, graded placed, next scratch-breds.
I will use a lesser bred mare that was a stakes winner, but most likely with a modest sire.
I am less likely to ever use a mare with a poor track performances no matter how well-bred she is…
You know me though, I’m a numbers guy that likes to delve into the nuts and bolts of the matter.
I found your results very interesting. And I agree with most of your conclusions. It is just that my experience is slightly different than yours and I’ve never been one to allow facts to get in the way of a good discussion. http://blacktypebugler.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif
You have far far too much time on your hands Trotter-for which we are grateful 🙂 No comment on the results, just wanted to say thanks for the research.
Dan/Legions
not sure if it’s a blessing or a curse being retired…thanks
Hey Trot thanks for this good stuff. Personally my best results have been when breeding to mares that are stakes winners as a minimum. Have struck occasional luck with other mares but they were ones in hindsight I retired too early and never gave them the chance to achieve what they should have due to my impatience.
A blessing for us and a curse for you lol
Thanks for the great article. Breeding mares is certainly my Achilles Heel in the game. All help and advise welcome. Finding the right sire to match up with a mare is certainly not easy for me, regardless of how much I research and what I do. Have I gotten lucky before in the past? Yes, but lucky is the key word. I need to find more than just luck in my sire/mare match ups.
Thanks Trotter for taking the time to put together this article. You have provided some valuable information as I start to put together a breeding spreadsheet. This will help me prioritize my mares as well as ideas on how to choose sire shares for them.