Sloppy Test Stakes Puzzles Handicappers
The feature race for this Sunday is The Exam Stakes, a 7-furlong Grade 1 sprint for 3yo filles, most of them already owning graded-stakes star badges despite their inexperience and youth.
SLICK POWER appears to have had the most career success at this distance thus far, but this division is well-known for sudden jumps forward in ability from one race to the next and just about anything could happen… Especially when you consider the sloppy going after the expected rains came and drenched the track.
This one is a must-watch Raceviewer event!
TAKE WHAT’S GIVEN tries a sprint for the first time since August even though the Pioneerof The Nile filly has nabbed three Grade 1’s at route distances, including the Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes last time out. Hard to question the trainer’s decision-making, though; All Canyongate has done is win at a 30% clip. My guess is this well-established router will compete at 7f just fine; the CPU ‘capper feels the same way and makes this one the 5/1 favorite. Makes her first wet-track try.
LEVER SHARAPOVA could be tough if she can fire another one like she did in winning the Grade 3 Priority Princess Stakes two back. However, that performance is the high mark thus far in her career, by quite a lot, and she has to try wet going for the first time, too. The Distorted Humor filly carries 8/1 odds and the colors of Cencall Racing into the fray.
MYTONARIAN (8/1) came up just a half-length short of wiring the field in the prestigious one-mile Grade 1 Chestnut Stakes last time and has a pair of graded-stakes wins at today’s distance to her credit. From the powerhouse Stoners stable group, this Lord Nelson filly could be the one to catch if she likes the slop.
NY TROOPERS SPITE, a Speightstown filly racing for the nearly-new 3-stable Doodlgbs stable group, has been coming up a bit short in graded-stakes racing since her triumph in the Grade 3 Saint Paula Stakes and needs to find a bit more to make her 8/1 odds pay out. Certainly not impossible, but a tough task awaits her here. Her good-track effort early in her career may offer extra hope.
EMPIRE SONG pulled a big upset in the Grade 3 Love Muffins Stakes last time out and Nycowboy hopes to see lightning strike again here at 11/1 with his Uncle Mo filly. She is 1st or 2nd in 8 of 10 career sprints and not all that far off this bunch, at least if she takes well to her first sloppy-track experience. Maybe?
EASY PEG is a Fusaichi Pegasus filly that is just now finding her game for Kaner Racing. After a solid but non-threatening 3rd in the Grade 2 Manhattan District Stakes, she won a minor stakes with ease last time out and could be sitting on a good one. The price looks pretty good at 9/1, but like any in here she sees slop for the first time.
FRANKLY FORTY is a Frankel filly who ran fairly well but not up to expectations on grass, prompting Tenpoint Stables to experiment with her on dirt. Improvement found! She won a Grade 3 win at 6 furlongs last time out, but tries longer and tougher here and gets a 12/1 price. Speedy filly will have to outrun her best by a good bit to get ‘er done with these. Her one off-track try offers encouragement until it’s noted that Good turf is hardly the same as sloppy dirt at all…
EIGHTS HEART YOU looks on the surface to be a bit overmatched here, but the Tapit filly is actually undefeated at 7f and the Davarto trainee could have a bit more than appears. The speed numbers do look a good bit short, however, contributing to a 13/1 price on the tote. Like almost everyone, she tries slop for the first time.
SLICK POWER is clearly the most-established runner here at 6/1 with nine wins and three fast-closing seconds in her twelve starts for the powerful Coolk stable group. This talented filly has three Grade 2 wins, all at today’s distance, and she just may eventually prove to be the magnum opus of the solid Irish sire Mastercraftsman. Every rider in this field will have their eyes in the rear-view mirror, wishfully hoping to not see this fine filly charging at them in the stretch.
COCAINE DONUTS represents the monster stable group led by (some say) the infamous Lenny, and does so very impressively. The American Pharoah filly is one of the few to have managed to stay in front of SLICK POWER, and did so in her most recent start, the Grade 1 Priceless Stakes. However, that win was a furlong shorter and the lead she had just earned was shrinking pretty quickly. 9/1 is the reward for backers if she can hang on. Has one solid off-track effort, on a Good track.
SEPOY’S LADY has won only three times in ten career tries, but she has danced all the dances, to be sure. A representative of the Stockswami stable group, the Sepoy filly has been away from the races since her bombout in the sloppy Grade 1 Bluegrass Derby. Shortens up here to a distance where she had success last year, but this appears to be a lot to ask, especially on slop. She gets an appropriate 13/1 number on the tote.
POINT OF A DERBY made her first dirt start last time out, finishing a strong 2nd in an allowance, with an all-time top speed figure. The Slipery1 trainee is taking a huge leap up the class ladder here and is the longest price on the board at 19/1, but the Point Of Entry filly has shown a little grit at times in her earlier turf tries. Yet another trying off-going for the first time.
BEAUTIFULNIGHTMARE finished 3rd in what seems to be today’s key race, the Grade 1 Priceless Stakes. Running under the colors of Cvbear‘s stables, this consistent Hard Spun filly should be in the picture for at least part of the money, especially on today’s wet going. 9/1 just might be a bargain on this surface.
___
I’ll go with BEAUTIFULNIGHTMARE to pull the upset, otherwise I have zero clue…
Good luck all!