Kentucky Rose Garden Stakes Grade III

Fine weather is expected for this week’s Rose Garden Handicap in Kentucky, meaning the dirt track will be firm for when this field of 10 fillies and mares go out in battle for a share of the $200,000 purse.

This race has a grand 7 year history, with the fastest time recorded over the 9 furlong trip of 1:47 2/5 being registered in 2005. The morning line favourite, K’S JOAN BACH, went quicker than that at her last time out, and looks to be the one to beat here.

PP 1

6/1 UNINHABITABLE ID# 6579 (CAPOTE x VICE REGENT x HABITAT) phartlap1

This 5yo mare steps up to try the longer distance here after having 32 of her 36 career starts in sprints. She has shown ability over the mile with a second in a Stakes race with an SP#102, however as her distance increased, her speeds decreased – both runs over 8.5 furlongs gathered respectable 96 SPs, and her one try over this 9 furlong trip saw her finish 10 lengths from winner in fifth place of a field of 7. It has been a year since that effort, so she may be ready to show her increased stamina, however this is definitely still a big question mark. Her latest form has been solid – back to listed stakes for her last two starts have seen her finish third, followed by a nice win in the Bezerk Virgin Challenge Stakes. Hasn’t had any good results when running in graded company, so she may be just shy of this class, and with the query at the distance, she may find this too tough.

PP 2

9/1 STRONG ACHIEVER ID# 98745 (STRONG HOPE x SEEKING THE GOLD x ALLEGED) given2

Bold front running filly, whose best results have come when she has been able to open up a big gap on the field and hold off challenges in the stretch. Last start she entered the stretch with a 2 length break, but was well and truly overrun in the Smackdown III event. Prior to that she almost lasted but was nosed out on the line in the Prospector Lily Stakes. Hasn’t been able to blow away a graded stakes field as yet, and tends to do better in listed stakes races. Her running style puts her in the hunt in every race she contends, and has hit triple digit SPs at her last 2 races, suggesting she is in form. Place chance.

PP 3

13/1 NESSY ALYFAY ID# 101605 (HENNESSY x A.P. INDY x ALYSHEBA) burnin

Finally, this front runner put it all together last start and hit a career high SP of 103. This is her first shot at a Graded stakes, coming off a third place last time in a listed race, when she was just run down on the line. Looks to have found her best distance after trainer, burnin, has given her a shot at longer routes over the last year with not much success. She is the 235th ranked filly in her division, so is not exactly a formiddable rival in a race like this, but last start suggests there could be more to come as she matures. Look for her to be running alongside the the filly from the 2 post early to battle it out for the early pace. Will need her best effort to figure in the finish.

PP 4

14/1 CHOCOLATE PIGEON(FR) ID# 64510 (MARKELLA(FR) x HOLLYWOOD BRAT x DANZIG) 2ofus

First start in the 2ofus stable after going for almost $1.5mil in the auction. Has mixed form in the last few starts, struggling most recently in the Trick Sadie Special, when beaten by 13 1/2 lengths. Before that she never got into the race in the Grade II Larry Laffer Stakes, and was beaten convincingly by the same margin. Was sent out the red hot favourite and just went down in a starter allowance race three starts ago, and failed before that in a Grade III event. She had been almost unbeatable in starter allowances for most of the season, topping it off with a win in the Grade III MD Distaff, posting an SP of 106. Seems to have lost form and looks a tough ask to find it here against this field.

PP 5

9/1 HOSE BLOWER ID# 11359 (WAR CHANT x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT) hansg

Has hit some great form recently, being placed in listed stakes at her last 2 starts, and before that, scoring 2 wins and a third in allowances. Best results include a stakes win as a juvenile and a Grade II placing as a 3yo, but looks well suited here, having been gradually getting better with racing. She is a late closer, so could be favoured by the fast pace expected out front early. Last time she came from over 15 lengths behind at the halfway mark to finish within 2 at the finish. Has topped the $300k mark in prize money, and will be flying home again, with D Sherman (10%) on board.

PP 6

3/1 K’S JOAN BACH ID# 67319 (FORESTRY x MILL REEF x DANZIG) verdugote

Came from a long way back last time to be the only one to make ground on OTTO HISTORY when second in the Grade I Go For The Gold Stakes. Hitting an SP of 110 on an off track bodes well for this, where most of the field are happy to make it into triple figures. Was second over this track and trip for the Grade I Breeders Bowl Distaff at the end of last season, and has a Grade I win over the same conditions to her name when she bolted home to score with an SP of 111 in the Three Smokestacks Stakes in the lead up to the BB. Bounced 3 starts ago when finished off the board here in the Mike’s Hometown Cap (Grade II). Would take another major bounce to see her miss the board here, and well in for a share of the purse with top jockey, D Givins (25%) in the saddle.

PP 7

11/1 TOM QUEST ID# 112792 (CORONADO’S QUEST x SILVER DEPUTY x TOM ROLFE) rubiano06

Trainer, rubiano06 has decided that this filly deserves a shot at a better class of race after last time out she ran a blinder of a race to finish second with a career best (by a long way) SP of 108. Not a bad effort for a horse with a tag of $7,500, and a great claim if she can back up her last effort. Before that she hadn’t finished out of the placings for her new trainer in 4 straight restricted allowances. Steps up an extra furlong here, which will be a bit of a test – her recent good form has come over a mile, with her longest attempt to go a routing distance resulting in a failure with an SP 73 over 11f. Should handle this distance a lot better and if she can repeat her last start effort she could be a surprise packet.

PP 8

4/1 SEGURA ID# 54440 (PULPIT x MACHIAVELLIAN x RIVERMAN) donosti

Comes here after 2 huge runs, which put her right into contention here. Last time she hit the front well before the stretch and bolted clear by over 3 lengths, only to be charged down late by a swooper, the pair finishing 5 lengths in advance of the third placegetter. Before that she stalked the leader and managed to time her run a little better to hit the line drawing away for an easy win in an allowance, notching an SP 112. Her form before those 2 starts was solid without being Earth shattering, managing a couple of listed stakes placings and a few competitive, yet off the board finishes. She looks to be at home in stakes class these days, and is well suited to the next step up in Grade after putting together a couple of fantastic efforts.

PP 9

10/1 CARBOW QUEST ID# 101081 (RANSOM O’WAR x RAINBOW QUEST x CAERLEON) viperthree

The last 2 starts for this 4yo mare have seen a change of tactics, away from her usual front running style. However, settling back off the pace in a stalking role has not provided her with much success – going down by over 8 lengths and 12 lengths in 2 listed stakes. Stepping up in class here against a field featuring 2 natural leaders raises immediate concern. Her 2 runs prior to these failures were very solid, with a third in the MD Distaff (Grade III), and a win in the Aggie Slew Handicap (ungraded stakes), scoring an SP103 on both occasions. Her off-track form has been very good, with a record of 4 3-0-1, however the racing conditions are expected to be firm, which may not be in her favour. It’s not all negative however, for if she is able to revert back to her old style and find the lead in a pace war early, she could have the stamina to outlast quite a few of these.

PP 10

5/1 SKIP DANCER ID# 58728 (SKIP AWAY x GREY DAWN II x NATIVE DANCER) russ

7 Graded stakes starts in a row for this lightly raced veteran, she has been competitive and featuring among the top half a dozen runners in all of her recent outings, without managing to find the winner’s circle. She hasn’t won in almost a year, yet finds herself as the 51st top ranked mare in her division, which suggests a lot of consistent placings in top class events. Rarely running a bad race, she is expected to sit back about midfield, but won’t be letting the leaders pull away by too much, as her finishes can be grinding rather than flashy. Another consistent effort is expected here.