Birmingham a Bettor’s Delight
The field is deep in Saturday’s Grade 1 Birmingham Stakes, a pricey $750,000 affair for sophomore fillies at the classic distance of 10 furlongs on the dirt. Three top-ten fillies will line up and the track handicappers are ambivalent, setting cofavorites Black Tuesday and Love Never Die at 7/1 and thus guaranteeing a rich payoff for any gambler capable of finding the key to this well-stocked race.
A hint: speed numbers alone won’t separate the wheat from the chaff; this field is far more evenly matched in that department than is usual. Black Tuesday is in fine form lately, though. Top-ranked in the route division, the breedy daughter of Storm Cat and Grade 3-placed King of Queens the Second has won seven of eleven, missed the board just once, and is riding a three-race winning streak that includes a pair of Grade 1s. She loves this track, even if she can’t keep a jockey here, but B. Child is no slouch and her Players Club National Oaks win was dizzying: a six-length victory.
The Birmingham will be a bit of a rematch. Not only is the Players Club runnerup in the field, but it will also include Love Never Die, who laid claim to early-season dominance with a win in the Bluegrass Oaks. She was third in the Chestnut and as such, has a bone to pick with Black Tuesday. She has been a bit off-form, flattening out in the stretch of the Sister Hen and Smackdown III, but her numbers are as good as anyone in the field’s and N. Lawton thought enough of her to stay aboard.
Tenth-ranked Zarallana‘s claim to fame was a victory in the California Oaks over All The Riches, the Bluegrass Oaks runner-up who put in credible performances in the Middle Jewel and Eddie Haskell. Zarallana herself was third in the Oaks but floundered in the Chestnut. It’s hard to say if it was the distance that did or in or if she just wasn’t herself that day. A good run in the listed Their Bats(Ire) Special suggests that she may be a miler at heart, but her pedigree says she deserves a chance.
Willowrun Hottie is a daughter of Silver Deputy, out of Grade 3-placed Saved the Dancer. She’s been carefully handled, run through her conditions at mostly the allowance level, though she was twice stakes-placed at two. Her efforts thus far have come mostly at the sprint and mile distances and she’s come on well, showing some tactical speed and a steady increase in speed ratings to a 104 last out. The distance and class jump is a question, but she is bred to handle it.
If her path was conservative, Right of Reply‘s was a little bit bold. The Oratory daughter came along quietly enough, beating up on allowance then listed stakes horses, including a convincing 4.25-length score at 11 furlongs. Last time out, though, she was pressed into service representing her home team in the 10-furlong Smackdown III race for sophomores, no restrictions by sex. Undaunted, she was patient early and ferocious late, finishing second, a quarter-length clear of Bluegrass Derby runner-up Passing Stone. It was a heady performance and puts her right in contention for a podium spot here.
The ever-present Super Stables is represented by Vera Gemini, by Kingmambo and out of Grade 1-placed Parallax. She did her early running on the turf, where she was stakes-placed, but she moved to the dirt in May and won two in a row, including the Grade 3 Snaggin’ Wagon Stakes. She was third in the Sister Hen before not firing last out, but she has a history of coming back strong from a lackluster race.
The aforementioned Prospector’s Rose must be getting a little vexed. The Roses in May filly had a pretty easy time of it early on, but her second-last race came in the Bumblebee Classic versus older, and it’s a tall order to handle Espresso D’Italia and Swift Kick both. Insult to injury, next time out she saw the bacak of Black Tuesday in the Players Club National Oaks. We may see more early speed out of her on Saturday; she’s fully capable of setting the pace if she wants to, and that gives her options in this closer-heavy field.
It would give Locked On High something to run at. The High Yield filly, out of Grade 2-placed Our Locks, likes to have a nice stalking position. It’s how she won the Grade 3 Leopard Stakes, and what got her second in the Grade 2 Wooly Mammoth BB Oaks. Of some concerns are her Sister Hen and Texas Hold’Em efforts, where she backed up in the stretch; it may be that this is farther than she really wants to go.
Super Alliance isn’t housed in a Super-named barn, but his own name gives his allegiance away. The Dixie Union daughter from an Alydar mare struggled in graded company at two, but stamped her ticked here by winning four of her last five. We’ll excuse the lose; it came on the only off-track she’s faced thus far. Her numbers have shown steady improvement this year and she capped off that tour with a precise win in the Grade 2 First State Oaks. That came at just a mile, but her 5.5-length score in the 9-furlong First Edition Bonanza says 10 furlongs shouldn’t scare her much.
Lightly-raced Dark Places (Black Tie Affair x Hi Jinx – Danzig) has made herself look good, never finishing worse than third in nine career starts, and that third was only once. She was a free-wheeling 7-length winner in allowance company and victorious by 3 in a wet-track stakes. Her graded debut came last out, when she made a gritty effort in the First State Oaks but couldn’t quite hold off Super Alliance or Az A Crystahl. It was a good outing, and she’ll likely be a bit tougher now that she knows what she’s dealing with. She’s been flirting with the three-digit barrier for a while and it wouldn’t take much to tip her over.
Eusa ran in the First State, too, but much less successfully; the Cat Thief filly bounced badly, finishing seventh. She was coming off of two tough losses, though, a third in the Snaggin’ Wagon and a mowed-down second in listed company. She paired up 100+ speed ratings there, and entered the Snaggin’ Wagon off two convincing listed stakes wins; it would be only fair to forgive her for throwing one clunker.
How fast is rain, anyway? Fast enough, I guess, since Faster N Rain (Rainbow Quest x Determinism – Fusaichi Pegasus) is twice stakes-placed. She’s never won above allowance company, though, and her career-high 98 speed rating stands out a bit. She does have a good turn of foot and is well-versed around this distance. Still, it may be asking a little too much.
And rounding out the field is Elusive Air, by Elusive Quality. She won the Grade 3 Myocardial Infarction early in the year, but had a tough spring, and her only win since February came in restricted company. Would surprise.