Sand Castle Golden Sprint Preview

8. A ROARING SUCCESS (9-1)

Jockey: D Ledwith

Trainer: redhill6

After winning the Grade 1 Double F Memorial back in November he had a little setback in the Grade 3 Wicker Sofa Stakes where he was unable to get by FIFTY SENSE and finished 3^rd. Given that the lone speed in this race is sitting to his outside, I’d imagine he’ll be pretty close to the pace and should get first crack at taking down THEHISTORYOFCADET.

9. THEHISTORYOFCADET (6-1)

Jockey: T Loesch

Trainer: hofcadet

In his last three he’s managed a pretty dominant allowance victory, a Grade 3 victory in the JFK Street, and a place in the Grade 3 Scottsdale BB Stakes. In those races he’s also run speed figs of 118, 115, and 115 which would be more than enough to take down this field. In terms of the pace scenario, he’s the only one in here that I see who prefers to be out in front which should allow him to dictate the pace.

10. OLD TIME GHOST (25-1)

Jockey: T Small

Trainer: ironman1

With only two Graded stakes races under his belt he’s not as seasoned as some of the others in here which is probably why he’s such a long price. However he’s no stranger to upsetting the field as he surprised many in the Grade 3 Backseat Driver Stakes taking down IT BODE’S WELL by a length and a quarter at odds of 28-1. Fast forward a month to the G3 Arizona Silver Spoon where he basically ran the same race but it wasn’t good enough to take down SECURITAS DEPOT. In this one he’s probably going to have to run early with HISTORYOFCADET to clear the field and settle in before making his final run.

11. DANZIG ON HOLIDAYS (8-1)

Jockey: A Weldon

Trainer: marineboy1

He’s run exclusively with Graded company in his last 11 races posting a record of 3-1-1 with his signature victory coming in the Grade 1 The Old Name. The knock on him coming into this one is that his last three races have been less than impressive finishing 6^th in the G2 Deep South Sprint, 3^rd in the G2 Pablo Verces Handicap, and a distant 6^th in the G3 Not Far Stakes. An excuse can be made for the Not Far Stakes as that was his first time ever routing but the other two he just didn’t seem to have enough. Being a deep closer and on the outside he should be able to sit at the back of the pack and have enough room to swing wide for his final run.

12. TAP SLEW YOU (44-1)

Jockey: J Ledwith

Trainer: hulk1

The odds on this one are well warranted as he hasn’t been close to hitting the board in his last 6 Graded runs. However, positionally he’s possibly the only other one in here that looks to potentially want the lead, so I’d expect him to be running early and fading by the 3^rd call.

13. SECURITAS DEPOT (21-1)

Jockey: C Meads

Trainer: nybtrot

As mentioned previously he put away OLD TIME GHOST in the Grade 3 Arizona Silver Spoon and really seems to have found his best stride as of late. He’s also recently won the Local Championship Stakes in Vermont. Only negative on this guy is he lacks experience as he’s only run with graded company once in his career. In terms of the pace scenario I see two different options for him; 1: he can go early and try to settle just off the pace which will more then likely put him 4 or 5 wide throughout, or 2: He can let everything inside of him break in front of him dive inside to save some ground and then put in a run while weaving through traffic.

14. IT BODE’S WELL (14-1)

Jockey: D Givins

Trainer: jmsstable

IT BODE’S WELL looks to do her best running  with graded company on an off track where in 3 races with those conditions her record is 1-2-0 and she’s earned a career best 111 speed fig. However she won’t be getting off conditions today and it’s worth mentioning that she won the Grade 3 Spur of the Moment on a fast track last April.  This is also her 4^th attempt at running with the boys and although she’s done relatively well she’s yet to win in a group like this (0-1-0). From a pace perspective I think she’s going to want to be with the front of the pack sitting just off and outside of the leaders.

MY PICKS:

1.       #9 THEHISTORYOFCADET (6-1) – My pace projection says he gets the lead easy and never looks back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him wire the field.

2.       #13 SECURITAS DEPOT (21-1) – Thinking maybe he’s starting to peak at the right moment and might find himself duking it out in the stretch.

3.       #7 FALCHION (6-1) – My first inclination is that he’s not going to get a speed duel that will cause everything in front of him to fall apart, but in case it does happen he’ll be the one to clean up the pieces.