The Wild Orchid Preview
Florida – Saturday March 24, 1:50PM Post Time
The Wild Orchid
Grade III / Group 3*CPU – Purse : $150,000
Restricted to 4 Year Olds and Older, Fillies and Mares Only
12 Furlongs | ~2400 Meters | One Mile and a Half
Turf – Firm
Post Parade:
1. AMRITA (7-1) B F Abman
The silversunlite barn sends out a Grade 3 winning daughter of Galileo, AMRITA who’s had her up and downs as of late. She’s only run with graded company once in the last year at the G1 South Australian Cup which resulted in a 13 length loss. Since then she’s won an $75,000 allowance event, won the Queen A.P. Turf Stakes in pretty dominant fashion and has a couple of 2nd place finishes in the Nurey Evermore Turf Mare Stayer and Chop Never Stops Turf Mare Challenge. She’s run 12 furlongs 4 times in her career and has been in the money 3 out of four times (1-2-0) with her sole win at the distance coming in allowance company.
2. HIGH DRAGON (4-1) E Sharp
Since December of 2016 tflyer’s HIGH DRAGON has finished in the money in 7 straight with the most impressive run coming in the Grade 3 Tabitha back in April of 2017 where she left the field by almost 3 lengths. HIGH DRAGON is one of three G1 winners who looks to be in a prime position to take down The Wild Orchid.
3. DARK BE SOLUTION (44-1) N Bonus
Deeprock7 sends out DARK BE SOLUTION who looks to be a little outclassed in this one. Although DARK BE SOLUTION has ran with some tough company recently, she still hasn’t won a race in over a year which includes two allowance losses. Based on the resume 44-1 seems like fair odds.
4. POUR IT UP (25-1) V Fraser
Zia sends out 7 year old Mare POUR IT UP who’s struggled a bit since winning the Pavey Ark back in October. She ran a speed fig of 105 in that one, but has steadily declined dropping to a 92 in her last out in a 20 length defeat at the Parallax. Maybe it was the 14 Furlong distance that got the better of her that day, but one way or the other she will probably need a lifetime best to beat this group.
5. BUDDHA’S SIGH (13-1) S S Ledwith
BUDDHA’S SIGH out of redbullet5’s barn has had a rough go of it her last two out losing by a combined 26 lengths in stakes races. Her last win came in the Sjs Silver Ghost Stakes back in October of 2017. She certainly ran fast enough in that one which could suggest she can compete here as she put out a 111 speed figure. However, I’d imagine a lot of things would have to go her way in order for that to happen.
6. OTTO ORLANDO (10-1) K Tiddy
Scat Daddy daughter OTTO ORLANDO out of the kaner barn looks primed to possibly pull off the upset. In 11 races she’s only been out of the money once in which she finished 4th but otherwise has 7 wins and 3 shows. The Wild Orchid is her second go with Graded Company after she dispatched the field in the Grade 2 Miami Beach by 3 furlongs. This one looks live!
7. DARK CANYON CANDY (49-1) W Desantis
Aguadeep8 sends out this daughter of Cape Cross who hasn’t broken 100 on the speed fig barrier as of yet. This 4 year old’s top speed fig is a 99 which was run three back in the Grade 1 Vicky Oaks which also happened to be a 17 length loss. The 49-1 odds line looks to be well deserved as I can’t seem to think of a scenario in which she can come out with a victory.
7. DARK CANYON CANDY (49-1) W Desantis
Aguadeep8 sends out this daughter of Cape Cross who hasn’t broken 100 on the speed fig barrier as of yet. This 4 year old’s top speed fig is a 99 which was run three back in the Grade 1 Vicky Oaks which also happened to be a 17 length loss. The 49-1 odds line looks to be well deserved as I can’t seem to think of a scenario in which she can come out with a victory
8. LOST HER BEARINGS (8-1) J Caves
Imagipper brings LOST HER BEARINGS and her great late running style to the party. Albeit a little too late she made a nice move in the Grade 1 San Francisco Captain Handicap and if she can get going a bit earlier she may have a legit shot in this one. She did run a 118 speed fig in the Nurey Stakes three back which if replicated could give her that first graded stakes victory.
9. CACKLING (8-1) R Pollard
CACKLING is out of the liam7 barn gets a crack at Graded Company again after finishing a close 2nd place in the Grade 3 Very Fine Handicap securing a career high 114 speed fig which might make her a player. On the flip side she’s gone the 12 furlongs only twice in her career one of which was on dirt but both times she was beaten by double digit lengths which leaves her with some big question marks going into this one.
10. DARK THAT WAY (24-1) D Zordich
Windsong20 brings longshot DARK THAT WAY into the Wild Orchid with not a very accomplished resume. Her top speed fig is a 106 that was run 2 back in in a 3rd place finish at the Jennifers Seas Stakes. Unlike most of the others she’s also yet to win an ungraded stakes race. She’ll need to show some huge improvement in order to get over the hump in this one.
11. COMEBACK PLAY (5-1) J Hayworth
Nickesyd has had COMEBACK PLAY almost exclusively with graded company dating back to May 2017 where she took down the Grade 3 Mezzanotte. Since then she’s added a Grade 2 victory in the The Beat Up Ford back in September 2017 and a Grade 1 victory in the British Champion Gals in October of 2017. Its also worth mentioning that she outlasted a late charging CACKLING in her last out in the Grade 3 Very Fine Handicap. She will almost certainly be there at the end.
12. MONTANA’S ROCKET (8-1) J Hayworth
MontanaRox sends out MONTANA’S ROCKET who thus far in her career is 0-9 when running with Graded Company. However, after opening 2018 with a 4 length victory in allowance company she looks primed for a big performance. Speed figs wise she looks capable enough to stick with these but she’ll probably need to run her absolute best to get over on these.
13. IT’S PROBLEMATIC (10-1) L Creek
Don’t let the 97 speed fig in her last out fool you, IT’S PROBLEMATIC wired that field easily and coasted to the finish line as I’m sure upinflames expected.. Prior to the last out she ran in 5 straight Graded Stakes posting a Grade 2 victory in the Corridor and a Grade 1 victory in The Friendly Wager. There are however some questions as to how she will finish in a 12 furlong race with a group of this caliber.
14. JUST JOY (11-1) L Herren
Out of the dalegend barn JUST JOY has won three of her last 4 ungraded stakes attempts with the most recent being a victory over today’s morning line favorite HIGH DRAGON. The only knock on this one is her age as she’s on the younger side of this crowd and hasn’t run against a group quite like this one yet.
MY PICKS:
(Full disclosure I usually tend to lean towards long shots with my picks.)
1. JUST JOY (11-1)
2. OTTO ORLANDO (10-1)
3. CACKLING (8-1)
Great writeup! It’s Problematic is mine and I hope she returns to last year’s form 🙂
Thanks for the encouraging thought on my horse Just Joy as your longshot pick. I’m not as happy that my jock came to ride, but she’s been red hot as of late. Thanks for the closer look into the race
Thanks. Was a fun one to write up and even more fun to watch.