With Bluegrass Spot on the Line, the All Saints Derby is Anyone’s to Win

I’ve got my work cut out for me this week, as my initial glance through this field shows me that pretty much any horse in here has a shot to win and grab a spot in the Bluegrass Derby. The favorite in here is 7/1 and the “longshot” is 17/1, which is pretty remarkable. Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at these talented 3-year-olds.

(1) MISTER SEEK TA (owner tonyalb7, 10/1) has won 5 out of 7 lifetime starts and is the winner of three in a row, all stakes races. The Florida-bred by Seek Again followed up two ungraded stakes victories by winning the Grade II Swale Stakes over at Florida last time out. He won the 6.5-furlong race by a length and a half, and has been steadily improving over the course of his career. My concern becomes the distance of this race – his longest race was 7 furlongs in a stakes race back in September, and he faded to fifth, which was the only time he’s finished worse than second. The Speightstown connection makes me think he’ll be a better sprinter, but I can’t blame owner tonyalb7 for taking a shot at getting to the Derby.

(2) WATCHFUL DRAGON (owner chono, 9/1) has not finished off the board yet in five career starts, and while this will be his first graded-stakes start, he has been prepping nicely at similar distances to Saturday’s race. After handily beating an allowance field up at New York two starts back, he went out to the desert in New Mexico and put together a solid win in an ungraded stakes race, putting up an SP number of 104, which is tied with a few others in here for the best career number. The son of Uncle Mo seems to like these longer distances, and even though he’s the least experienced horse in the field, he has just as much route experience as most others, and he has a nice chance in here.

(3) STALKING JEN (owner mtkbpshaul, 13/1) took seven tries to break his maiden last year, but finally pulled it off when stretching out to the 8.5-furlong distance in September. The Korean-bred gelding does have a stakes victory, which came up at Delaware back in December. Following that win, he went out west and finished third in his next start, another ungraded stakes. He then grabbed the early lead in the Grade II Sleepy Fan Stakes last time out, but faded at the end to finish tenth. His form seems to have leveled off some over the past few months, and I’m not sure he has quite the upside that some others in here do. I may take a wait-and-see approach with him for this race.

(4) OG MINE MINISTER (owner baff2014scat, 8/1) is coming off a dominating performance last time out in the Grade II Hutchingson Stakes, where he won by 2 1/4 lengths in the 7.5-furlong race. Before that race, he finished a close second in an ungraded stakes race back in January. My concern here comes back to the distance, as he failed to hit the board in the two route races he has tried, including a last-place finish in an overnight stakes in December. That being said, it is hard to ignore how good his last race was, especially since it was just shy of a mile. While his route races are worrying, he has the talent to be competitive in here.

(5) CURLIN’S LADY (owner dkstables4, 9/1) will be the lone filly in here, trying to snag a Derby spot from the boys. After a disappointing Grade III result back in August, owner dkstables4 stretched her out in her subsequent allowance races, and she racked up a couple of nice wins at this distance to round out her 2-year-old campaign. After that last win, she went from a NW3L to the Grade I Vermont is 4 Lovers, where she put together a nice race to finish second. She faded a tad right at the end of that race, and looking at her other running lines, 8.5 furlongs could be her ideal distance. The question is, can she keep up with the boys? That 104 SP last time out (tied for the best in here), suggests that she can.

(6) TITANOM (owner odin, 7/1) is the lukewarm favorite in here, with “lukewarm” written in bold, capital letters. That’s not a knock on this horse, but more a testament to how good the field is. This colt had a terrific start to his career, winning 4 out of his first 5 races including a Grade III race late in the summer. After winning an overnight stakes in October, he threw in a true clunker at the worst time, finishing thirteenth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile as the third choice in the race. He’s been wintering in the desert at Arizona for the past few months, and is coming off a nice win in an ungraded stakes race last time out, which I think sets him up to contend. We’ll see if he can handle the G1 spotlight this time.

(7) INDEPENDENT UNION (owner dawgpound, 9/1) is, surprisingly, the only one in here who is coming out of the last Louisiana prep race, the Grade III Risen Star last month. He finished a solid second in that race. Before that, he had another nice second-place finish in the Grade I Movieland Futurity and won the Grade III Nashua Special. In addition, he had two G2 victories earlier in his two-year-old year, so he’s already closing in on a million dollars in earnings. He’s a stone cold closer and there appears to be a fair amount of early speed in this race, so if the pace is hot early, this horse has the talent to mow them down in the stretch.

(8) OH KAY FLASH (owner jms9, 17/1) is the longest shot on the board in this race, but like everyone else in here, he could find the winner’s circle. In his two-year-old season, he dominated the URC Hopes and Dreams series, taking all three legs he raced in. He has found another gear since moving to a route distance, with two wins in a row coming into this race. He is fresh off a Grade III win in the Good Cow last month. It’s hard to gauge just how good that field was – the horses that finished behind him had mixed success in their next start. That was a solid run, and while I’m not convinced he’s at the top level now, anyone can win this, and that would be impressive for an Oklahoma-bred.

(9) ONE FOR THE THUMB (owner noles47, 10/1) will throw a little South African flavor into the mix, and will make the twelfth start of his career. He comes into this race off a disappointing tenth-place finish in the Grade I Vermont is 4 Lovers. Before that race, he hit the board in a few ungraded stakes races and had some pretty flat performances in a few Grade II races last summer. This colt has more experience than many in this field, but looking over his running lines, I think he’s probably a step below the top horses in here right now. While he may step up here, in a loaded field like this one, I’ll have to look elsewhere.

(10) GREYWOLFS HONOR (owner graywolf20, 12/1) has piled up a couple of graded stakes victories, although they came last summer. His form has been pretty erratic since then. After those graded wins, he went out to the West Coast and struggled, including a last-place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile. He looked good in a freshener at Massachusetts early last month, but that was in a NW3L allowance race in a pretty short field. After that encouraging start, though, he failed to fire out in California last month in the Grade II Sleepy Fan, finishing 13th out of 14. His best results have come sprinting and while he matured fast, it seems like the others have caught up to him. Not sure he’ll be up to the task.

(11) LORD OF PRINCES (owner kevoman4, 8/1) has been pretty consistent over his career, but will tackle a route race for the first time on Saturday. After a 2+ month layoff, he came back firing last month, finishing second to OG MINE MINISTER in the Grade II Hutchingson Stakes. He seemed to like the longer distance, and I suspect he may long the further stretchout in this race. There is only one blemish on his PPs, and that’s the Grade II Big Hill at Washington back in October, where he finished sixth. I’m willing to write that one off, as if he likes the stretchout and improves second off the layoff, I think he could be a major contender.

(12) MEGABUCKS MOVEMENT (owner megabucks, 12/1) brings more “local bred” flavor to this race, as he is by Cowtown Cat in Ohio. He has not finished out of the money since his first lifetime start, and has been showing up in stakes races. He’s coming off his first graded win out in California, where he won the Grade II Saint Vincent by nearly a length last month. Prior to that, he’s been in a mixture of allowance and ungraded stakes, finishing consistently each time. He didn’t beat any giant killers in that last start, but his consistentcy is noted throughout the past year and he could find his way into this if he runs the right race.

(13) REDNECKS FOR TRUMP (owner ticketman4, 12/1) has had some solid races, but has not quite proven his skills at the stakes level. Out of three lifetime starts in graded stakes races, he has hit the board just once, finishing third in September’s Grade I End of the Line Futurity at Kentucky. When coming back to the ungraded stakes level for the past two starts, he has not been able to hold early leads, finishing third and fourth in those two races. He did throw up an SP number of 100 in that last start about a month ago, but he is among many that will try for the early lead. If the pace is hot, I’m worried he will be out of gas by the finish line.

(14) SHOULDERSOFGIANTS (owner stickem, 10/1) breaks from the outside post, looking to improve off two fourth-place finishes in Grade I events, including the Equinics last time out. A fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile is worth noting, especially since he only finished a half-length back. Before that, he had two second-place efforts in Grade I events, both at slightly shorter distances than this race. He likes to hang out around mid-pack during the first half of the race, and if there are many vying for the lead at the start of the race, he could be there to pick up the pieces at the end.

My Picks:
Again, this is a deep field, and I could have found a way to put 8 or 9 horses in my top four.

(14) SHOULDERSOFGIANTS, 10/1 – Has been right there in his Grade I starts, and I like his chances, especially since he’ll likely sit off the early pace. Will try to improve second off the layoff.

(2) WATCHFUL DRAGON, 9/1 – A little green in the stakes department, but looked the part in his last couple of races, especially with the longer distances.

(11) LORD OF PRINCES, 8/1 – Looked good first off the layoff last time out, and could improve with the stretchout.

(5) CURLIN’S LADY, 9/1 – Her recent resume shows me that you can’t count her out here despite the uphill battle she’ll face matching up against the boys. She seems to like this distance.

Good luck to all the Derby hopefuls!