BLUEGRASS OAKS…Equal Time to the Ladies…Major Preps and How They Relate to the Oaks
I thought this year I would try and focus some attention to the Fillies that are on the Bluegrass Oaks Trail. The first Oaks was run in 1999 and was called The Bluegrass Filly and then changed the following year to the Bluegrass Oaks and has remained the Oaks ever since. Looking at the previous 19 winners, I have broken down their 3yo prep races leading up to the Oaks. Listed below is a breakdown of the major Prep Races leading up to the Oaks and how they relate to the winner’s profile.
Lool Stakes – 9 horses exited the Lool and went on to win the Oaks, 2 were winners of the Lool
California Oaks – 6 horses exited the California Oaks and went on to win the Oaks, 2 won the California Oaks
The Fantasia – 6 horses exited the Fantasia and went on to win the Oaks, 3 won the Fantasia
The Los Vinegrette – 3 horses exited the Los Vinegrette and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Los Vinegrette and then won the Oaks
Santa Jezebel – – 3 horses exited the Santa Jezebel and went on to win the Oaks; two of them were winners of the Santa Jezebel
Louisiana Oaks – 3 horses exited the Louisiana Oaks and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Louisiana Oaks and then won the Oaks
The Sweet Nannette – 2 horses exited the Sweet Nannette and went on to win the Oaks, one of them won the Sweet Nannette
The Fantasy Stakes – 2 horses exited the Fantasy Stakes and went on to win the Oaks, one of them won the Fantasy Stakes
Vermont is 4 Lovers – 2 horses exited the Vermont is 4 Lovers and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Vermont is 4 Lovers and then won the Oaks
Miss Bonnie – 1 horses exited the Miss Bonnie and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Miss Bonnie and then won the Oaks
Silverbullet Beer – 1 horses exited the Silverbullet Beer and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Silverbullet Beer and then won the Oaks
Dubai 1000 Guineas – 1 horses exited the Dubai 1000 Guineas and went on to win the Oaks; no horse has ever won the Dubai 1000 Guineas and then won the Oaks
You can see most of the Oaks winners have exited either the Lool Stakes, California Oaks, or The Fantasia, or both, suggesting these three Prep’s carry the most weight in the outcome of the Oaks. Winning the Fantasia qualifies your horse as a major player with three winners of that race going on to win the Oaks. Horses that have won the Los Vinegrette, the Louisiana Oaks, the Vermont is 4 Lovers, the Miss Bonnie, the Silverbullet Beer, and the Dubai 1000 Guineas have never won an Oaks.
Let’s look at the top 20 Fillies and their road to the Oaks:
Nominated for The Lool Stakes are GOT STREET SMARTS, ONE F CURLIN, MS. GILL, ZEN’S LADY GOLD, and SPRAY AND WAL AWAY. GOT STREET SMARTS is making her first start since Equinics 2018 and should be in top form for the Oaks with a solid showing in the Lool. ONE F CURLIN gets high marks for her win in the Santa Jezebel, a race where two winners went on to win the Oaks, however, she would be the first horse to win the Los Vinegrette and go on to win the Oaks. MS. GILL would be the first horse to win the Vermont is 4 Lovers and go on to win the Oaks, a race that has produced only two previous Oaks winners. ZEN’S LADY GOLD has only a win in a Listed Stakes, and only one horse has gone on to win the Oaks without a major Prep. A top three finish in the Lool would brighten up her outlook. SPRAY AND WALK AWAY exits the Vermont and would need a top three Lool finish to bolster her chances in the Oaks.
Look for GOT STREET SMARTS and ONE F CURLIN to have the most impact in the Lool Stakes.
Nominated for the California Oaks are TAKE WHAT’s GIVEN, SEPOY’S LADY, BEER AND BEER, GRACEBROOK, POWERFULLY DYNAMIC, TUDOR WIT and UPSTATE BORN.
TAKE WHAT’S GIVEN is another that is making her first start since Equinics 2018 and would get high marks with a top three finish in the California Oaks. SEPOY’S LADY was third in the Los Vinegrette and should be well poised for a top three finish in the California Derby. BEER AND BEER has two starts as a 3yo, the last coming in Equinics 2018. No knocks; but she faces a tough task and a top three finish would paint a brighter picture. GRACEBROOK was the winner of the Miss Bonnie, a race that has produced only one Oaks winner, but she’s good and there is a first time for everything. POWERFULLY DYNAMIC was the winner of the Lady Bourbon, she would be the first horse to exit the Lady Bourbon and go on to win the Oaks. TUDOR WIT makes her first start in a major prep in the California Derby. UPSTATE BORN exits the Los Vinegrette, a race that produced three Oaks winners.
This race is wide open, and I would not be surprised to see a stranger emerge victorious. Slight edge to TAKE WHAT’S GIVEN and SEPOY’S LADY in what should be a hotly contested affair.
CURLIN’s LADY and OTTO SWITCH have the Bluegrass Derby is their sights and are entered in the All Saints Lock Prep and Corkscrew Lock Prep respectively.
SIEGE OF YORKTOWN is entered in the G3 We Get Signal Stakes, a prep with no history relating to the Oaks.
SHADES OF LIFE, winner of the Louisiana Derby and TIFFIN, runner-up in Equinics 2018 remain uncommitted currently. SHADES OF LIFE would be the first horse to win the Louisiana Derby and go on to win the Oaks. TIFFIN could be considered a major player, but will need a prep.
SCARNECCHIA exits the Vermont is 4 Lovers and is currently uncommitted.
WAVE AT LIAM was 2nd in the Santa Jezabel, a race that has produced three winners, and she would be the first horse to win the Silverbullet Beer and capture an Oaks victory. Bubble horse that can use a top three finish in a major prep to make the Oaks field.
MATCHING EMPIRE finished 3rd in the Dubai 1000 Guineas, and although the Dubai hasn’t had an inpactful presence in the Oaks, the next trip for MATCHING EMPIRE is the Fantasia, a race that has produced 6 Oaks winners.
IN CONCLUSION
The Lool has produced the most Oaks winners, and this year’s field looks stacked. Laden with talent, don’t be surprised if the Lool produces its’ Tenth Bluegrass Oaks winner.
Sleeper Pick… MATCHING EMPIRE is the only horse in the top twenty to be entered in the Fantasia, a race that is renowned for producing Bluegrass Oaks winners. Strong consideration goes to the winner of the Fantasia, she just might be your next Three-Year Old Queen.
Good Luck to all the trainers and owners.
Remember this article is based on the history of the past Oaks winners and the preps that got them there. It’s up to you to re-write history.
Fantastic Trot great stuff. Love trying to get a horse to the KY Oaks.
Mostly because if they can get into it or even do well in it they’re hopefully going to be future producers of colts for the Derby as well as future Oaks fillies with any luck.
Tiffin’s decision comes shortly. Thanks for the great article (and the nudge).