Marathoners Ready for Two Mile Test in the Cayuga Lake Special

A full field of fourteen will head to the gate Sunday in the Grade I Cayuga Lake Special at New York, which will be for the horses that like to run for days. This race will be at two miles on the fast main track.

The race is named for Cayuga Lake, the longest of the scenic Finger Lakes in upstate New York – a little trivia for you before we delve into this field.

(1) STORMCLAW (owner jmd510, 6/1) will stretch back out to the 16-furlong distance in this race after being in some shorter races of late. He is a multiple Grade III race winner, although his last graded stakes victory was back in October of 2016. The concern here is with the distance of this race – he has five career starts in races that were 14 furlongs or more, and has finished at least 10 lengths behind in each of those races. His recent form is pretty good, with a fourth-place effort in a Grade III here at New York last time out. That race was at 12 furlongs, and his ideal distance seems to be around 10 or 11 furlongs. With his performances in other marathons, I can’t endorse him in this spot.

(2) MALICIOUS HF (owner legendary2, 12/1) has made quite the transformation in the past nine months. This colt was claimed for just $5,000 back in June down the road in Pennsylvania. After a pair of impressive victories in a starter allowance and an allowance race at longer distances, new owner legendary2 took him out to Idaho, where he finished second in an ungraded stakes. Last time out, he tried the 16-furlong distance for the first time in the Grade II Buckeye Stayer. After sitting in the back for the first mile, he rallied nicely to finish second behind Breeders’ Bowl Marathon winner LIMESTONE. This certainly hasn’t been the most conventional path to a Grade I race, but he’s shown enough talent of late to hit the board here.

(3) CAMP COMMANDER (owner deeprock21, 8/1) is another horse that changed hands last year. He has been successful since moving to the longer distances over 14 furlongs, with several place and show results in graded stakes company as he has criss-crossed the globe. He did throw in a bit of a clunker in his final race of 2017, which was the Grade I, 14 furlong Big Apple over this surface, where he never really fired and finished eighth. He bounced back nicely, though, with a second-place finish last time out in Turkey in a Grade II, where he sat near the lead before fading a bit at the end. He will be one to watch, given his recent successes at this distance.

(4) DONE TAPPING (owner graywolf9, 53/1) will make his twelfth straight start in a 16-furlong race, and his third graded stakes start. He has not been able to keep up in either of his graded stakes starts up to this point, getting distanced in both races. In his most recent start, an ungraded stakes race, he did finish in the top half of the field, but faded to nearly 20 lengths behind by the end. He did stay relatively competitive two starts back, in an open allowance race at New Mexico, where he finished third. Given his recent performance in stakes and especially in graded stakes, he’ll likely struggle to keep up with this field by the end of the two miles.

(5) JUST A CONSUL (owner adeeprock12, 17/1) will race at this distance for the first time since a maiden special weight race on the turf last January, where he finished a well-beaten fourth. Since that race over a year ago, he’s been primarily racing between 9 and 10 furlongs on the main track, mostly against maiden and allowance company. He put up a blistering 113 SP number back in December in a 9-furlong allowance race. He then tried graded stakes company for the first time in January, finishing tenth out a fourteen in a race that was run at 9.5 furlongs. I’m not sure he’s quite up to the level of some of the others in here, especially when stretching out a huge distance.

(6) U R KIRBY (owner 4nighthawk, 11/1) romped in a ungraded stakes race last time out, winning the two mile race by nearly five lengths. This was his first start on the East Coast, after spending the summer and fall out in Washington State, mostly against open allowance company. Before that, he did test the stakes water and even a couple of graded stakes races. While he does have some nice ungraded wins, his performances against graded company have been less stellar, losing by double-digit lengths in his two most recent graded efforts. That last start was pretty nice, though, and he has the talent to be competitive in this race.

(7) VALE OF AVALON (owner shadier, 6/1) will prove to be one of the tougher horses to handicap in this race. He is coming off a third-place in a 12-furlong Grade III last time out at this track, firing off an SP number of 115. Before that race, he won 8 out of 9, mostly against open allowance company. The hazy part of his record is that the last race at 12 furlongs is the longest race in his career, and he will have to go another half mile in this race. The way he closed nicely in the last race after sitting back early in the race hints that he might be ok with the added distance. Given that some of the others in here aren’t in the best form, I like his chances to be involved.

(8) GOLFTEAM (owner golfteam1, 5/1) has won four races in a row, all by convincing fashion, and he is the favorite in here for good reason. That last race was very impressive, as he blew away a very good field in the Group I Hit Man over in Italy back on Christmas Eve. Before that, he handily won a Group III at Ireland in October. Both of these races were at the two-mile distance, and he seems to have hit his best stride at this distance. The five-year-old gelding has been very consistent over the course of his career, and should be up to the challenge against this bunch. I like his chances to make it five in a row.

(9) SHADOW EMPIRE (owner jonesstables7, 9/1) is largely untested in stakes races and in races this long. His only stakes start so far was on Christmas Eve, when he finished ninth in an ungraded stakes race at West Virginia. He was purchased at auction last summer by jonesstables7, and the new trainer has taken SHADOW EMPIRE to a new level. That being said, he’s been primarily racing in races that are between 8 and 9 furlongs, so this is a huge stretchout. There isn’t a whole lot to go on, as the only remotely recent long race he’s been in was last April, where he finished 27 lengths back in an open allowance race. Despite the recent improvement in form, I’m not sure he can get the distance here.

(10) READY SET CHEERS (owner jbcri47, 9/1) will meet stakes company for the first time after two impressive allowance performances at a mile and a half. There was a marked improvement in his results after moving from the shorter races to the 12 furlongs events for the last two starts, posting career best SP numbers. Also, he is out of a mare that had some of her best results from 12 furlongs and beyond. While he is stretching out quite a bit in this race, I would not be surprised at all if he winds up in contention. He seems to be in very good form right now, and while he may not be quite as good as the top few, he will fight to get on the board.

(11) BACK ON THE TRAIL (owner deeprock1a, 12/1) is another one in here that was claimed last year. Since then, he’s been racing at longer distances and has been doing better, placing in a pair of ungraded stakes late last year and then finishing a solid third in the Group II Old Man at Turkey last month. That race was 14 furlongs, and given his solid results in longer races in the past year, it stands to reason that he could be another one in here that could sneak into the top 3 or 4 at the end. Like many others in this race, there are a lot of unknowns, but his recent races present some upside.

(12) BASALTES (owner aguadeep1, 11/1) will run on the dirt for the first time since April 2015, making just the second dirt start of his career. That race was his second career start, and he struggled in the maiden special weight. Obviously, that was a long time ago, but back then it certainly seemed like he preferred the turf to the dirt. Perhaps he’ll take to the dirt a little more kindly this time around, but his recent form on the turf hasn’t been anything to write home about. He finished a distant third last time out in a NW1n allowance race, and failed to hit the board in his four previous starts, all graded stakes. With that in mind and the surface switch, there are just too many variables for me.

(13) THOUSAND STEPS (owner corzacan, 20/1) is the sole million-dollar earner in the field, but it appears that his best days are well behind him. He has been well beaten in his last six starts dating back to July, finishing last in 3 out of his last 4. He had a couple of competitive races before that, but also finished tenth in this race last March. His SP numbers have fallen off considerably since the peak of his career, and it just doesn’t appear that he is able to compete at this level anymore. I can’t endorse him in this field, especially since it has a few hot horses in here. I suspect he’ll finish in the back half of the field.

(14) IRON DUKE (owner borodino, 12/1) is another intriguing one in here, and another who will test stakes company for the first time. After spending much of the first part of his career in the claiming ranks, he moved to allowance races as the distances got longer and he has put up some dominating wins along the way, albeit against much smaller and weaker fields than this. He is fresh off a dominating five-length win in a 15-furlong allowance race last month. His SP numbers may not stack up quite as the rest of the field, but I suspect some of that is because he has not been all out in some of these dominating wins. Another one to consider in some of the exotics.

My Picks:

(8) GOLFTEAM, 5/1 – Hard to go against the favorite here, as he is coming off two dominating graded stakes win at this distance.

(3) CAMP COMMANDER, 8/1 – Has had some recent success at 16 furlongs against stakes company.

(2) MALICIOUS HF, 12/1 – Finished second behind the Breeders’ Bowl Marathon winner last time out. I suspect he’ll be ready for the challenge here.

(7) VALE OF AVALON, 6/1 – Hasn’t raced this far yet, but has been performing better in stretchouts recently. Talented enough to be involved.

Good luck to all!