Eclectic Field Heads to New York for The Thumb Route (Grade 1)

New York is set to host the $750,000 The Thumb Route at 16 furlongs on the dirt for older fillies and mares on Saint Patrick’s Day, and about the only thing the field is missing is a few Irish-breds.

This has to be one of the most unique collections of horses to ever race one another in a Grade 1 event in the long and storied history of the sim.

Consider that the 2018 edition of The Thumb Route will include:

1. The defending champion, who has earned over $2 million in her career, and at six years old still has an outside shot at qualifying for the Hall of Fame on the track.
2. A pair of former claimers.
3. A horse whose eight race winning streak just ended.
4. Six horses from one stable (and it’s not Todd Pletcher!).
5. An Equinics veteran.
6. A filly who has never raced on the dirt, making her main track debut in Grade 1 company.
7. Two daughters of Drosselmeyer.
8. And six horses who have never attempted today’s two mile distance before, including one who raced in a five furlong event last time out.

With such an odd mix of horses, this proved to be an interesting race to handicap. Let’s take a look at the field:

1 – MAKE A MISTAKE (4-1)

It’s no mistake this nicely-bred (Smart Strike x Montjeu x Darshaan) five-year-old mare is in today’s field. The mtk76-trainee has won eight times in 22 starts, earning over $775,000 for her connections. Make A Mistake has recorded six of her wins on the grass, but has actually earned more money on today’s surface, by virtue of three in the money finishes in graded company on the dirt last year. Her last four races have been in stakes company at today’s distance, with a win and two places to show for her efforts. Not one to ignore.

2 – DARK CANDY HALO (68-1)

One of six horses trained by lightng99 in today’s race, this five-year-old daughter of Drosselmeyer is making her graded stakes debut in a difficult spot. The aguadeep2-trainee finished fifth in a listed stakes last April at today’s distance in her only other try in stakes company. Dark Candy Halo has spent most of her career in Allowance company, with three wins, three places, and three shows in 21 starts. She’s coming off a dominant 7 ¼ length win in Allowance company in New Jersey last month, though her speed figure for that race (70) suggests she wasn’t really tested. Her career best speed figure of 94 came back in 2016, and she’ll have to run much better than that to contend at this level.

3 – CRYSTAL WIFE (20-1)

Crystal Wife has three wins and a dozen in the money finishes in 19 career starts. Claimed by adeeprock0 (lightng99) for $60,000 in November, the four-year-old daughter of Darci Brahma has since finished third in back-to-back Allowance races for her new connections. Crystal Wife has never raced longer than 10 furlongs, competed in stakes company, or posted a triple digit speed figure, so it would rank as a major upset to see her in the winner’s circle today.

4 – INSPIRED POINT (33-1)

This five-year-old mare trained by adeeprock2 (lightng99) has four wins and a dozen in the money finishes in 24 starts, with earnings of over $125,000. The daughter of Point of Entry finished a distant ninth last time out in Grade 2 company. Claimed for just $3,000 in late 2016, she recorded a pair of Allowance wins and two places in her first seven starts for her new connections. Inspired Point has struggled since then, however, with a single third place finish in her last five starts. Inspired Point has written an inspiring rags to riches story, but we don’t think the next chapter is a Grade 1 win today.

5 – SEEKING AFFECTION (6-1)

This four-year-old filly has won six times in 15 starts for thethumb15 (lenny271), earning over $320,000. Seeking Affection is a daughter of Bayern, out of the Grade 2 winning mare Seeking Death. She struggled a bit in Allowance company after breaking her maiden in her second start, but has been on a great roll since taking some time off early in her three-year-old season, finishing first or second in eight of her last nine starts. She tried racing two miles for the first time in her last race, and romped to a 7 ¼ length victory in the Donner Dirt Mare Challenge, so there shouldn’t be any questions about her ability to handle today’s distance. In fine form, and it’s always dangerous to bet against her connections.

6 – DARK FREDDYDONEIT (43-1)

This four-year-old daughter of Astrology has hit the board in just six of 18 starts, but seems to have turned a corner in her training recently. The wyndaway10-trainee (lightng99) finished second in the Grade 2 The Old Lady at 42-1 in her first try in stakes company last time out. Before that Dark Freddydoneit was second in an Allowance race at today’s distance, which marked her first attempt longer than 9 furlongs. She looks like one of her stable’s top contenders to us, but will still need to take a big step forward to threaten this talented field.

7 – TAILS KAZEEM (8-1)

The most experienced horse in today’s field, Tails Kazeem has won 10 times in 26 starts for gunners2 (masterm). The six-year-old daughter of Al Kazeem (GB), out of a Grade 3-winning he-mare, is closing in on $400,000 in career earnings. She’s won a stakes race in each of the past two years, including one at today’s distance in the Winning Season Dirt Mare Stayer last July. Tails Kazeem has recorded a triple digit speed figure just once in four attempts since that race. She closed nicely to finish fourth in a Grade 2 event at 14 furlongs last time out, and will probably appreciate the extra distance today. That said, we’re still looking elsewhere for the winner.

8 – DARK MANDUROED (14-1)

Dark Manduroed has won four times in 19 starts for aquadeep (lightng99) and is closing in on a quarter of a million dollars in career earnings. With only seven in the money finishes in her career, this daughter of Inello isn’t an obvious choice, but unlike several of her stablemates, Dark Maduroed does have a lot of experience facing top flight talent. She’s won listed stakes on both dirt and turf, and has raced seven times in graded company. Negatively, she hasn’t hit the board in any of those graded races, and she didn’t handle 14 furlongs all that well last time out. Hard to recommend.

9 – BRIDGING HUSS (40-1)

This four-year-old daughter of Verrazano is the least experienced horse in today’s field, with just twelve starts for leeballs (corza). Bridging Huss has finished in the money seven times, earning almost $100,000. It took eight starts for her to break her maiden, but since then she has performed very well, with a win, a place, and a show in four starts in listed stakes and Allowance company. She’s had more success on the turf than on the dirt, and her last three races have been in sprints, so her placement in a 16 furlong route on the dirt is bound to raise some eyebrows. We assume her connections know what they’re doing, but still find it hard to back this one with our money.

10 – DARK N IMPACT (10-1)

Dark N Impact is a four-year-old filly who has won four times in 18 starts for alimitos8 (lightng99), hitting the board in half of her trips through the starting 1gate. The daughter of Kyllachy, out of Grade 3 winning mare Day Laborer, has won a pair of listed stakes races, and is closing in on a quarter of a million dollars in career earnings. She hasn’t finished in the money in four tries in graded company, and has never raced longer than 12 furlongs. Seems like a bit of an ambitious placing to us, but we don’t have a horse in this field, so what do we know?

11 – HEWHOSITSONHIGH (5-2)

The most accomplished horse in the field, Hewhositsonhigh has earned over $2 million for fromtheu (willyam13). Hewhositsonhigh is the defending champion of The Thumb Route, winning by four lengths last year, and she finished sixth in the race in 2016. The well-bred (Street Cry x A.P. Indy x Dynaformer) six-year-old has won ten times in 24 starts, with a pair of victories at both the Grade 1 and Grade 2 levels. She has finished off the board in three starts in graded company since winning the Grade 2 Big Dessert Stakes in August, but returns to the distaff ranks today after tangling with the boys in her last two races. With 19 straight triple digit speed figures dating back to 2015, you don’t need us to tell you that Hewhositsonhigh is a contender.

12 – JAWABAI (14-1)

Jawabai has had an interesting career for nycracing (nycowboy). The four-year-old daughter of Creative Cause raced in the 2016 Equinics as a two-year-old, finishing third in the Mike Vezina Memorial at six furlongs. After running in ten consecutive stakes races and recording a pair of listed wins, Jawabai returned to Allowance company this year, and has a win and a place in two trips to the track in 2018. She’s coming off an easy win at 10 furlongs, but that marks the longest race of her career. It may be asking a lot for her to win at the Grade 1 level in her first attempt at two miles, but those who back her will likely get paid a handsome price for their faith.

13 – XLIX (10-1)

Five-year-old mare Xlix has won almost half of her trips through the starting gate, with 10 wins in 22 races. She’s earned over $210,000 for isabella19 (splitenz). Xlix had an eight race winning streak broken last time out, but still managed a second place finish in the Grade 3 The Miss Bourbon Street, her first attempt in stakes company. The daughter of Lookin at Lucky, out of stakes winning mare All Spirit, has finished in the money in 13 of her last 14 starts, dating back to June 2016. Despite the step up in class, her credentials deserve respect.

14 – SILENT LAWYER (13-1)

With just three wins in 17 starts, Silent Lawyer’s resume doesn’t scream “bet on me today”, but the four-year-old daughter of Drosselmeyer has hit the board a dozen times for oldmoonfarms24 (oldmoonfarms). She’s raced in stakes company in her past four starts, recording triple digit speed figures each time, with a pair of third place finishes for her efforts. Silent Lawyer has never run longer than 12 furlongs, but she has a win and a show in her two attempts at a mile and a half, so there’s reason to think she might be able to handle today’s distance. It’s hard for us to recommend her against this accomplished crew, but she should be well-rested, with almost two and a half months off since her last race.

POINTGUARD’S PICKS:

WIN – MAKE A MISTAKE (4-1)

PLACE – HEWHOSITSONHIGH (5-2)

SHOW – SEEKING AFFECTION (6-1)

BEST LONGSHOT – SILENT LAWYER (13-1)