Duel For The Dell: 14 Two Year Olds Battle In Southern California
A promising two year old has a way of distorting reality, especially as September rolls around and they haven’t taken any steps seriously wrong to this point. Races like this have a way of quickly bringing reality back into clear focus.
Fourteen two year olds have gained entry into today’s feature in
We’ve got a closely matched field today, with no clear-cut favorite, and only one or two throw-outs, so lets start to take a closer look at this group:
Top of Form
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | 9/1 | Son of | ||||
2 | ASK AND SEEK(IRE) | 13/1 | Hard to criticize a colt whose ranked 19th in the division, especially when he carries a 5: 3-1-0 record, but his speed numbers may put him on the outside looking on. Furthermore, pedigree pundits would cringe to see a Daylami x Theatrical x | |||
3 | FERNANDO STORM | 6/1 | 4: 2-1-0 and a pedigree that probably ranks as the best in the field, but the jockey is winless on the year. Two year old races aren’t the place to try and break long losing streaks, and G. Mesler is riding a 56 race losing streak. Bum luck for trainer Fernando, who looks to have a talented colt on his hands, but he may not yet have the seasoning to overcome a jockey who is not much more valuable than a 120lb. sack of potatoes. | |||
4 | DARK HOLLOW | 11/1 | The nature of two year olds is that they leap conditions, and its not inconceivable that this Woodman colt can compete here today despite only breaking his maiden last time out over this track. He’s bred to get much longer than today’s trip, and his running style is one that suggests to me that if he can keep improving, he could be a dangerous horse to watch as we go through this fall and into next spring. | |||
5 | BORDER WAR | 9/1 | Excuse the fact that this War Chant x Fusaichi Pegasus colt disliked the turf last time out, and you’ve got a horse who must be afforded a huge shot here. Everything in his running lines indicates that he’s going to appreciate the extra furlong, and he’s dangerous today if he can rebound from his last effort; despite appearances, the 7th two starts back in a G2 race isn’t nearly as poor a showing as it would appear, as he was only beaten 3 ¼ lengths and he was closing steadily through the stretch. | |||
6 | BONDS DESTINY | 8/1 | The 89 speed figure he recorded last time out is second only to one of Reunioin Slew’s when considering the best performances turned in by this field, and this one’s pedigree is just screaming for the extra ground. Only fear today is that last time out, his speed figures jumped 11 points, and he’s a prime candidate to regress off of that huge effort this time. Ignore the turf effort first time out and he’s 5: 3-2-0, so he’s always around to contest the finish, and the seasoning will help him today. | |||
7 | 9/2 | Can’t ignore that 90 speed figure last time out, and he’s ranked ninth in the division, but showing a speed figure trend of 77-87-90 in his last three starts, he may have topped out and be due to regress today. I’m also not a fan of that last outing coming over a sloppy track: whether he’ll be primed to repeat it after what must have been a gut-wrenching effort is a big question mark. | ||||
8 | WOLFING | 32/1 | Can’t blame a trainer for trying, but you can’t blame the horse when he runs up the track, which he is almost sure to do today. Speed horse who has never been further than 5.5 furlongs, has shown nothing in stakes company, and has a lifetime top speed number of 78. | |||
9 | RED HAWK | 8/1 | Ranked 15th in the division, and its great to see his sire Tomahawk get a good one. I love the speed progression of 78-81-84, which indicates to me a natural maturation process producing better speed figures, rather than an unpredictable massive effort that he’ll regress off of. A very good candidate to improve off of his last, and if he does indeed to that, he’s got a shot at the big prize. | |||
10 | A.P. BRUTUS T | 11/1 | An outside shot to improve off of his last few efforts, but its asking a lot for him to compete in this quality of company. Wouldn’t be a complete shock, but it wouldn’t be a real predictable outcome if this one is around to contest the major awards. | |||
11 | WONDERBOY EAMON(IRE) | 12/1 | He appreciated the switch to dirt two starts back, but disliked 8 furlongs or graded company last time out. He’s a wild card today: he could crash and burn, or he could surprise a lot of people with a strong showing. Only question is short rest; two year olds coming back after only 2 weeks off is sometimes tricky. | |||
12 | INCREDIBLE MOJO | 9/1 | Didn’t handle G1 company last time out very well, but this field looks like its significantly easier than what he faced last time out, and the effort may set him up nicely for today. He is, however, a speed horse, and I’m not always a fan of longshot speed horses in two year old races; he’s going to face pressure near the front end, and there are some classy closers in the field. May need some seasoning in ungraded stakes or allowance company before he’s up to this kind of a task. | |||
13 | SUNDAY CLASSIC | 25/1 | After a 5-length win last time out in stakes company which on paper looks as good as any run turned in by a horse in this field today, he’s obviously proven that he’s going to outrun what could be interpreted as a distance or a B-level pedigree and compete in sprints at a high level. Can’t ignore him at 25/1. | |||
14 | AHBIT TUQUIK | 19/1 | Don’t like the 12-point jump last time out; I’ve mentioned a tendency to regress off of such huge efforts with several other horses in the field, and its not encouraging that a 12point jump left this colt running only an 80 speed figure. Hard to see this one getting compensated for his efforts today. |