A Pair of Equinics Nominees Square Off in the $100,000 ESR Stranger Things Stakes

The selection of DIXIELAND BLUE to the 2018 Equinics cleared the way for GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE and GRAND UNION FLYER to square off this Saturday in the $100,000 ESR Stranger Things Stakes.  This will be the first meeting between these exciting Three-Year Old fillies, both with their sights set on the Oaks in May.   Four other Stakes placed fillies will do their best to ruin the plans of the ESR top two trainers and their impressive fillies and carve a path for their own charges heading to the Filly Classic in May.

GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE – the kingab connections elected to run DIXIELAND BLUE in Equinics hoping the 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Pioneerof the Nile will even him up in the win column with the residencies leading trainer.  The KY bred is out of the stakes winning mare RALLY CAT (Storm Cat), Dam to six Stakes winners; the talented filly is a multiple Stakes winner as a Two-Year Old, and you can expect she will be full of run in her 3yo debut sitting well up on the pace, persistently waiting for the right opportunity to strike as they turn for home; experience and class make her the…one to beat

CAPARCH – the 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Al Khali, out of the stakes winning mare RAPID REPLY (Arch), makes her first start outside of New York Bred company; the imposing pointblank trained local bred has never been off the board in five career starts and has dominated the local competition, especially when competing against her ESR rivals; an impressive second place finisher in the Grecian Flight Stakes LTO and the ability to strike from right off the pace indicate this Big Apple invader is capable of making the next step…can’t ignore

GRAND UNION FLYER – the lightly raced 3-Year Old Roan Filly by Medaglia D’oro out of the Hall of Fame mare UNION JACK FLYER (A.P. Indy) is a perfect two for two in her career as she launches a bid to follow in her Dam’s footsteps; the cadet connections have high expectations for this KY bred filly, and what she spots this field in experience, she more than makes up for in talent…diamond in the rough

REEF GOLD – the 3-Year Old Light Grey Filly by Medaglia D’oro is the first foal from the stakes winning mare LIZZY (Bernardini); the trotter1 trained KY bred was a decisive winner in her last two starts and appears well poised for the upset; her Dam gave a good account of herself at the stakes and graded level, and the early returns on her daughter suggest the apple hasn’t fallen very far from the tree…might be this good

SPEED DISTORTION – the 3-Year Old Roan Filly by Macho Uno, out of the stakes placed mare SWIFT BREEZE (Distorted Humor), races under the red and black colors of the kingman stables; somewhat snake bit since her winning debut in March of last year, the hard-hitting KY bred has been second or third in four of her five starts since that debut, losing those races by a combined 4 ¾ lengths; she should improve in her second start going around two turns and could be a factor if she is able to elude the serpents wrath…knocking on door

THE GIST OF IT – the frankster trained 3-Year Old Brown Filly by Nyquist out of the G2 winning mare LACY (Awesome Again), Dam to multiple stakes winners, prepped nicely LTO with a second place finish in the 6.5f Unbridleds Spirit Dirt Filly Dash and should be razor sharp for her return to mile in the ESR feature; second against residency rivals in her debut, the promising KY bred drew away from the field in her next start before a late rally in the English Bark Dirt Juvenile Fillies…don’t overlook

EIGHTEEN KARAT – the second half of the frankster entry, this 3-Year Old Roan Filly is a scratch bred filly by Frosted out of a Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II mare; never off the board in four career starts, the KY bred filly turned in a solid effort against GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE with a third place finish in the ESR Alien Parasite Hypothesis Stakes in September; the turnback to the mile should level the playing field with her former rival and put this regally bred 3yo in a position to turn the tables in her revenge match…dangerous

COURTS ARCHES – the deeprock trained 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Intello out of Arch mare lacks nothing in experience to this field, having competed at the highest level in her six career starts; two for two lifetime against non-stakes competition suggest the talent is apparent, but she faces a tough task here on Saturday competing around two turns for the first time while her best racing has come over the turf course…must show more

LADY PASSION – the nycowboy trained 3-Year Old Bay Filly is a scratch-bred by Tale of the Cat out of an El Gran Senor x Storm Bird mare; a win and three thirds in four career starts has connections optimistic in this KY bred’s first stakes appearance, and why not…the ambitious filly had the lead coming for home last time out against more established rivals before settling for a minor share in a race that saw her jump a condition after her maiden victory; turns back to a mile and has enough early speed to be a factor…might surprise

PUNKIN SIEQ – the 3-Year Old Light Grey Filly by War Front out of the stakes winning mare SWEEPEO (Forest Wildcat) has improved significantly since the ace connections have switched surfaces over to the Dirt; the much-improved KY bred will have her work cut out for her in her Stakes debut, however; she is burdened with two turns for the first time after a hard-fought nose victory LTO…in tough

HARD BLUE SKY – the casino stables make their return to ESR racing this week with their 3-Year Old Light Grey Filly by Medaglia D’oro out of the G1 winning mare VICTORY ANDTHE SIN (Distorted Humor); withstood all challengers LTO, including THE GIST OF IT, in the ESR I’ve Been Waiting Even Longer MSW feature in her two-turn debut and could prove the horse to beat if ready after almost a five-month layoff;  past performances put her right on par with GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE and EIGHTEEN KARAT…best if fit

ALABANZA – the ivanyamil trained 3-Year Old Bay Filly by Awesome Again out of the multi-stakes producing mare ESTADISTICA (Deputy Minister) was beaten handily by GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE and EIGHTEEN KARAT in the ESR Alien Parasite Hypothesis Stakes in September, but if her last start is any indication, it may be a question of distance(8.5 furlongs) rather than ability; was a convincing winner in her mile debut in a MSW race in California and could find the shorter distance more to her liking…chance for part

Handicapping the Field

Once again, the ESR crew has left me reaching for a cliché as I can only describe the ESR Stranger Things Stakes as a wide-open affair.  When you look at the race on paper it looks rather apparent, the ESR Alien Parasite Hypothesis Stakes is the key race here making GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE and EIGHTEEN KARAT the primary contenders with HARD BLUE SKY perhaps better than both, and maybe it is that obvious, but there are so many unknown quantities in this field it’s hard to reach for the obvious.  Adding to the handicapping dilemma is the fact that the race is void of any deep closers apart from THE GIST OF IT, and that alone may be a good enough reason not to look any further.  With so many runners in the field that are either on or near the lead, HARD BLUE SKY has demonstrated he can carry that speed from start to finish, and if ready, and that’s a big if, could race most of this field into submission.  REEF GOLD and GRAND UNION FLYER have displayed some amazing ability in their limited careers, but they could find themselves victims to more experienced competition.  The Grecian Flight Stakes was a good indication that CAPARCH has learned how to rate, but will she be able to keep pace with Open Company fillies?  Best not to overthink it?

The Picks

THE GIST OF IT – benefits from a fast pace

GRANNYIBAKEDUACAKE – not likely to back down

HARD BLUE SKY – might need a race