Ten opt in for Eastern Lake Memorial

Virginia keeps the spotlight on long routers this week in our highlight race, the Eastern Lake Memorial. The race, for all horses four years old and older, goes twelve furlongs, and carries a $50000 purse. Virginia got pounded by some of that weather we’ve been avoiding all year, and the track is rated as yielding for this race. This is the third year for this stakes race, that has historically drawn some very good subgraded level turf routers. Last year’s edition was won convincingly by longshot Nevada Blood, who bested seven horses with better odds in a field of ten to cross the finish line three and a quarter lengths in front of the field. This year’s race has also drawn a field of ten, ranging from first time stakes hopefuls, to veteran multiple stakes winners. The odds break it nearly down the middle, with a 5/2 favorite, and six of ten starters posting at 9/1 or better. Four longshots round out the field, ranging from almost there 13/1 to not even close 99/1 odds. In this age group, there should be plenty of distance experience, so the real wild card is the yielding track, which can sometimes make top contenders look like plow horses.

PP 1) Royal Guest Sired by General Royal, Trained by thereason. Royal guest is a five year old horse, making his thirty ninth start in this race. He has two previous stakes wins, with his latest coming in January of last year. His last ten starts have seen him run to a record of 2-0-2-0-1 with a best speed number of 97.0 earned mid last year. His last start was a stakes at ten furlongs in the United Kingdom, where he finished six out of nine, never really finding his legs. He has spent most of his career on grass, not really able to make anything out of two dirt starts. His best runs have been in the eleven furlong range, but he has shown the capability to go further. He loves the off track, and has five top three finishes in six off track starts, and his speeds are far above his firm track averages. He runs as a midpack to deep closer, but with the exxception of one very nice allowance run, his close has been virtually non-existent this year. There is a lot of good early speed here, and it is a good possibilty he’ll find himself out deep early. His off track skill works to his advantage, but he’s going to need more close than he’s evidenced so far this year to be effective.

PP 2) Tassominator G(IRE) Sired by King’s Theatre(IRE), Trained by oldcrow. Tassominator G(IRE) is a six year old horse, making his fifty fifth career run in this one. The bulk of his success has come in the starter allowance ranks, but he got his first career stakes win earlier this season. Over the course of his last ten, he’s put together a record of 3-4-0-1-1 with a best speed number of 96.1 run earlier this year. His last start was a thirteen furlong stakes right here in Virginia, where the early pace seemed a bit too hot for him and he faded badly in the second half, finishing seven in a field of ten. He is surface versatile, showing some talent on both surfaces, but spends most of his time on the grass. Distance has been his friend, and he has earned twenty top three finishes in twenty five starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. Most of those were at a lower level of competition, though. Off track doesn’t seem to effect him one way or the other, with speeds comparable to what he has shown on a firm track, though he has never raced on a track with this much give. He’s a fast starter, and he has shown he needs that early lead to be effective. He’ll have an early speed duel on his hands here, and he has shown himself vunerable in a duel in the past. The energy he will need to expend to keep up the pace in the first half will most likely lead to a second half fade here.

PP 3) Retribution Sired by Tabasco Cat, Trained by jockfan12. Retribution is making his fortieth career start here, as he runs in his six year old season. After running a hodge podge of claims and allowances, this will be his first career stakes start. His last ten starts have resulted in a 2-0-0-0-1 record with a best speed of 81.8 earned in his last start last season. His last start was a A2x at six and a half furlongs on dirt, where he finished thirteenth, nearly twenty one lengths out at the wire. His dirt and turf speeds have been comparable, and he hasn’t been stellar on either surface. This will be his longest run ever by two and a half furlongs, and he was already struggling in the nine furlong range. His off track averages don’t lose much speed, but they hurt him worse in routes, where he is already weak. He has run as both a stalker and a deep closer over his last ten, and the results have been about the same: dismal. All thing considered, he should probably live up to his odds in this one.

PP 4) El Gran Dushyantor Sired by Dushyantor, Trained by fabman. El Gran Dushyantor is competing in his six year old season, making his thirty ninth trip to the gate here. He has two previous stakes wins, with the last coming in the middle of his four year old campaign. His last ten have garnered him a 4-3-2-0-0 record, boasting a best speed of 98.4 earned three starts back. His last run was an A1t at thirteen furlongs on dirt where he finished third, after giving up a lead late. He runs well on either surface, but seems to have a slight speed edge on turf. He loves the distance, and has only run under twelve furlongs only once since the end of his four year old season. The off track doesn’t seem to bother him much, and he doesn’t lose much in speed on a surface with more give. He’s a fast starter, who generally gets an excellent jump from the gate. Since he has moved up in class, though, he has been trouble holding those leads late. His stamina usually keeps him in it in the stretch though. He should finish in the top half of this field and collect another check.

PP 5) I Wanna Be A Gray(IRE) Sired by King of Kings(IRE), Trained by ipicked4. I Wanna Be A Gray(IRE) takes to the track for his twenty fourth career start. He is running in his four year old season and has two stakes wins to his credit, both coming this year. In his last ten starts he has put up a record of 3-2-1-1-1 with his best speed number being 102.8, earned in his last start of the 2006 season. His last run was a thirteen furlong stakes race in Iowa, where he managed to close some but not enough, finishing fifth in a field of nine. He is dirt runner, with his only previous experience on turf being less than stellar. The fact that it was his two year old debut makes that hard to judge by, though. What is not so hard to judge is his off track performance, where, on dirt, he took a big speed hit both times he ran off track. Distance is his strong suit, and he has seven top three finishes in eleven starts, all on dirt. He is a midpack to deep closer, and his close as been quite good, though he has been in somewhat of a slump lately, possibly due to what appears to have been a slight injury two starts back. Due to his lack of turf experience and his tentativeness on an off track, I have to give him a pass here.

PP 6) Thunder Sired by War Chant, Trained by stretch. Thunder is a five year old horse, seeing action for the thirty seventh career time here. He has two prior stakes win, with his lastest coming earlier this season. Over his last ten, he has scored a record of 3-1-2-2-1, with a best speed of 102.8 earned last season in his first career stakes win. His last run was a fourteen furlong stakes in Kansas, where an early speed duel left him fading down the stretch to settle for third in a field of six. While is dirt speeds have been comparable to his turf speeds, long turf routes have been his bread and butter race, posting thirteen top three finishes, seven of them wins in twenty one starts at twelve furlongs or better on turf. His off track performance has been good as well, and he doesn’t even seem to lose a step on the spongier surface. He is a leader/stalker, and he needs to be one of the pacesetters to be effective. He shouldn’t have a problem being in it early here. He’s had a problem giving up leads to the closers down the stretch, but the off track makes him hard to catch in this one. One of the better picks to take this one all the way.

PP 7) American Electric Sired by Trempolino, Trained by bewitched. American Electric, while running in his five year old season, is one of the novices of this field, making only his ninth career start. This is his first crack at stakes competition. His first nine starts have seen him go 3-2-0-1-1, posting a best speed of 94.6, two starts back. His last start was an A3L outing in New Hampshire, where he convincing handled a field of nine by five lengths at fourteen fourlongs. After four starts on dirt early in his career with mixed results, he was adopted by his new trainer who promptly switched him to turf, where he has three wins and a place in his four starts. He has two longer starts one at eleven and one at fourteen, resulting in two career best speeds. He has no prior off track experience. His breeding indicates a small speed hit on the off track, but not major. Unfortunately, a small hit could be enough to cost him this one. He’s a midpack to deep closer, and his close has been the picture of consistency this year on turf. This isn’t a bad placement for him, but a not field where I would have liked to see him make his first off track start. Field is ripe for a closer, but he will need to prove to be an off track pro to bring this one home.

PP 8) Lemon Lily Affair Sired by Lemon Drop Kid, Trained by stonybrook. Lemon Lily Affair is a four year old colt, who will make his twenty seventh career start in this race. He has two previous stakes wins, both of them coming this season. He’s put together a respectable 3-3-0-2-0 record in his last ten, with a best speed of 104.5 earned two starts back, among three 100+ speeds during this period. His last start was a stakes at this distance in Jamaica where he dominated a field of six, gate to wire to win by three and a half lengths. Turf has been his home since late in his two year old season and he’s built his career on the grass. He has earned a win and a place in two starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. He only has one off track run to judge by, but that run was one of his best in that period. After a minor slump late last year, he has been on fire over his last five. He is a stalker, but not above grabbing an early lead if he sees the opportunity. It’s not likely that he will see that chance here. If he can stay just off the lead in the early going, he should be a threat late. Positio at the half should tell the story for him here.

PP 9) Ms. Onyx(IRE) Sired by Sea Raven(IRE), Trained by ravenclaw. Ms. Onyx is a modestly bred three year old colt, making the ninth run of his career here. This will be his second stakes start after jumping class from the claiming ranks, and he is still seeking his first victory at this level. His first nine starts hae left him with a record of 2-1-0-1-0 with a best speed of 87.8 earned earlier this year. His last trip to the gate was a thirteen furlong stakes in Michigan, where he followed a field of seven home by a goodly margin. Seven of eight starts have been on turf, and he had his best success in the claiming ranks. He has faired better in the longer races, but still hasn’t shown the speed to run with this kind of field. He’s had one off track start, and it was comparable to the other speeds he was running around that time. He’s a deep closer but his close has bee off and on, especially outside the claiming ranks. With a career best, he will still need a goodly amount of luck to break into the top half of this field. Could make a dent in the starter allowance ranks with his low tag.

PP 10) Mighty Hawk Sired by War Chant, Trained by lonepine. Mighty Hawk is a five year old horse, proudly carrying a divisional rank of 41 into his twenty second career start here. He has five previous stakes wins, with his last coming in his last race. His last ten starts have seen him gallop to a 2-5-1-0-1 record, with a best speed of 110.2 earned late last year. He has posted five 100+ speeds in his last ten starts. His last run was a fourteen furlong stakes in Alabama where he bested a field of five by three and a half lengths. He has a record of 5-3-1 in turf starts at twelve furlongs and longer, with a win and a place on off tracks. Two of his 100+ speeds over his last ten have come on off tracks. He runs as a stalker to midpack closer, and his close has been quite consistent, though he has had trouble bringing it all the way home. The longer race and the off track are both to his benefit here. The early speed duel works to his advantage here, as well. If he runs as well as he has been, he should have much trouble here.