The Queen’s Flower Pot G3
The Queen’s Flower Pot G3
3252.4913
Jockey’s Prepare to Carry Mounts to Finish
By: fisher37
This Saturday in
END OF THE TUNNEL (5-2) is a 3yo colt in PP1 out of MOTIVATOR x FANTASTIC LIGHT x CLEVER TRICK and trained by simond2. Heavily raced as a 2yo with 10 races, this colt has finished ITM in 11 of 15 turf races and is ranked 79th in the TLR. The longest he has run though are a few 9.5F Stakes, with a win and a second. This colt has SP ratings of 90-94 at 9.5F. Tends to run from near the back, the question will be can he continue on over the extra 6.5F of this race. He is the only progeny of a grade C broodmare. Perhaps the odds makers are a little optimistic on his chances here, but the track’s leading jockey A Craig is on board and that may help.
READ THE RUNES (12-1) is a 3yo colt in PP2 out of DALAKHANI x PILSUDSKI x INCHINOR and trained by graywolf2. A former claimer, new owner/trainer graywolf2 claimed this colt for 4k and recognized that he liked the grass, he has been ITM 6 of 7 races since, and is now ranked 802nd in the TLR. This however will be this pace setter’s 1st Stakes race and although he has wins at 10F and 11F those were Starters or Allowances. SP ratings of 84 and 87 over 11F have been his best efforts, and he will have to show he has the class and the distance on Saturday. My choice for the best name in the race and the only non SADLER’S WELLS/WAR CHANT progeny, this colt may be in my trifecta just for those reasons. This colt is the only progeny of a grade F broodmare.
VAGABOND (16-1) is a 3yo filly in PP3 out of LAMMTARRA x SADLER’S WELLS X BUCKPASSER and trained by coolerk. A recent 75k claimer for trainer coolerk, this filly seems to run best just off the pace. She has 2 recent ITM finishes over 11F with a top SP rating of 79 in a Claimer and an Allowance. This will be her first Stakes race, she is not ranked in the TLR, and it looks like she will be a long shot to go from RAGS TO RICHES here. However she is half sister to million dollar winner MAGICAL MIA, both among 3 progeny of a grade H broodmare, her sire LAMMTARRA is a fairly productive and popular sire available for less than 100 BP.
PLEASANT WAR (6-1) is a 3yo colt in PP4 out of PLEASANT TAP x WAR CHANT x CAPOTE and trained by layoff. Nonsequitur of the day winner, this is another runner in his first Stakes company, he has been 3 of 3, all wins, since moving to the green. Likes to run as pace setter or just off the pace, his recent efforts have been over 10F and 11F with SP ratings from 83-89. Ranked 182nd in the TLR this colt has worked though his Allowance restrictions and seems to be primed to run here. One of three progeny of a grade G broodmare one other of which has a SP. Sire PLEASANT TAP is another fairly productive and popular sire available for less than 100BP.
FACE MY DEMONS (3-1) is a 3yo colt in PP5 out of WAR CHANT x EASY GOER x CAERLEON and trained by seedly. This colt has shown he can go 12F, winning his last effort, a Stakes run, at 12F with a SP rating of 94, although this was on dirt. He has been 3 of 4 times ITM on turf, but was handily beaten in his last turf race, an 11F G3 where he clocked an 83 SP rating. Currently ranked 316th in the TLR he likes to run from the back. This colt is the only scratch bred in the race.
FALLING DOWN (7-2) is a 3yo colt in PP6 out of GALILEO x SAKHEE x WAR CHANT and trained by shamrandk. Possibly named because of his SADLER’S WELLS inbreeding, this colt also possesses WAR CHANT pedigree therefore hitting the race’s breeding exacta. 2 of 3 times ITM in his 3 Stakes races, he has run 12F with an 88-90 SP rating, but was over 13 lengths back, although one was a G1. Likes to run from the back and in this field may be a good bet to finish ITM. Ranked 92nd in the TLR he is one of two progeny of a grade F broodmare.
TWELVE INCHES (9-2) is a 3yo colt in PP7 out of WAR CHANT x STORM CAT x VAGUELY NOBLE and trained by hansg. Rumored to have been named by a stable hand who was a fan of Aerosmith’s Big Ten Inch , this colt will be starting his 2nd Stakes race, the other was a 4th in a 9F on turf with a SP rating of 91. Broke his maiden only two back over 11F, but has a career 6 of 8 ITM and only recently moved to turf which seems to agree. Also like to run from the back this colt is one of 5 progeny of a grade B broodmare, a half sibling is a GW.
Outlook
Obviously the standard 2yo and 3yo disclaimer should be mentioned and especially at a new distance almost anything can happen. It doesn’t look like jockey selection has hurt anyone’s chances, however there are a few trends to note. The pace should be set by READ THE RUNES, VAGABOND, and PLEASANT WAR. Despite my favoring READ THE RUNES, perhaps only PLEASANT WAR survives the stretch run ITM as closers END OF THE TUNNEL, FACE MY DEMONS, FALLING DOWN, TWELVE INCHES, and CASTLE TOWER make their moves. Of the closers I think CASTLE TOWER and FALLING DOWN may have the best shot at ITM finishes. Odds favorites FACE MY DEMONS must show he can go the distance on turf, and END OF THE TUNNEL has to show he can maintain his speed over 6.5F more than he has ever run before. It is more likely of the two that FACE MY DEMONS can break through here. I might play the 4-6-8 trifecta boxed, although it is tough to leave of READ THE RUNES and FACE MY DEMONS. Finally a couple of observations on breeding from the race. It seemed odd that 88% of the runners had been bred with a bred over/retired broodmares rather than scratch bred. The broodmares ranged from Grades B through H, with there being 1 B, 1C, 3 Fs, 1G, and 1H. The Grade H broodmare had the best progeny while the Grade B had the most progeny. Also interesting was the prevalence of runners with WAR CHANT in their pedigrees. Not normally seen as a producer of distance runners, WAR CHANT has been considered an overproducer in our separate reality.