ErPeg and Solar Song Face Off
Kentucky will be treated to an amazing race this weekend, as Ermington Pegasus and Solar Song rematch in the Michael-Strike Stakes, a Grade I affair for older horses at nine furlongs on the dirt. It’s a stellar field overall, with several very strong horses looking to take on the top colts.
THE TOP TWO
What else is there to say about Pigeon3’s Ermington Pegasus? The horse is a force of nature. A four-year-old son of Sky Mesa, he has won his last five races by daylight against some of the toughest competition in the game. This race is a hair shorter than he’s been running, but if he can trounce top fields at 9.5 furlongs, I’m not real worried about shortening him up 1/16 mile. The number one dirt classic horse scored a 24% winning rider in D. Givens. Although anyone can run a bad race, I wouldn’t bet against this monster, even at 5/2. Look for him to sit mid- to back-of-the-pack early and come flying around the far turn.
Squirrel4’s Solar Song comes into this race as the defending Michael-Strike champ, having won the race at the tender age of three. An awesome horse in his own right, he defeated ErPeg in last fall’s Breeders’ Bowl Classic. He has finished behind the #1 horse twice this year, but won the Grade II Benny Badger when he didn’t have Pigeon’s horse to deal with. A very late runner, he may have some traffic issues to deal with coming into the stretch. He’ll have the very competent P. Cadigan aboard, but he’ll have a hard time overcoming the 1-2 punch of ErPeg and D Givins.
OTHER CONTENDERS
Eddie72’s Intergalactic will break from the inside post. He’s a very solid, seasoned competitor who picks up regular paychecks in graded races. This is a good distance for him and he is quite capable of hitting the board with a strong effort. He can run well from a variety of positions in the pack. I doubt he’ll win, but I’d also be pretty surprised if he failed to get a check.
Next to Intergalactic will be Mrhwi2’s Vetinari’s Vixen. 7/1 might be a tad generous for a colt make his graded stakes debut in a tough race, but the colt has earned a shot at graded company. He’s coming off a crazy-good race in overnight stakes where he earned a 110 fig. That was his first stakes win, but he really seems to be coming into his own lately. This will be the colt’s first try at longer than 8.5 furlongs as well as his first graded race, so he has a lot of questions to answer.
#10-ranked mare Waki Notion is a hot horse right now and trainer Looney1 has decided to try her against the boys. She has won three of her last four graded stakes by daylight and is looking extremely tough. Most of her races are in the 9.5-10 furlong range, so this is a hair shorter than this deep closer usually likes to run. She has won a graded race at this distance, so it’s hardly beyond her reach. She could well earn a paycheck this weekend, but I suspect that putting her up against the very best of the boys may be a bit much to ask.
Babyfarms’ So Slew Me is coming off a nice win in the Grade II Soupy Sails where he won from near the lead. As the best speed horse in a race with a lot of closers, he has a shot of stealing this one from the front. He has a skilled jockey in D. Sherman, who will help keep him out of trouble. An intriguing horse at 7/1 with a shot at doing some real damage.
Zewango2’s Armed and Ready has been a monster in overnight stakes, but has yet to make an impression in graded races. He has tried graded company twice before and finished midpack both times. He’s won two overnights in a row, so he’s probably earned another shot at the big time, but this is an awfully tough spot for him. Most likely he’ll repeat his midpack performances from prior graded attempts.
THE LONGSHOTS
Le Navy is an interesting horse sitting at 11/1 for trainer Zwhisper. His two prior stakes attempts were not encouraging, but the trainer is shooting for the moon after a spectacular win from the front in allowance company. He earned a 111 in that race, but this is a huge step up. Giving his prior experiences in stakes races, I don’t expect too much from him here.
Ripley’s Sunday is the longest shot in the field at 30/1 and he will be hampered by having the dreadful P Greggor in the irons. He ran poorly for trainer Lexington in a graded race last time out and probably won’t be tons better this weekend. Not a bad horse at all – he does well at at the allowance level and it would be nice to see him head back there to continued success.
Suddenly Bold will represent Xenophon stable and goes off at 12/1. He’s coming off an overnight stakes and an allowance win at a mile, where he earned respectable numbers. He doesn’t done particularly well at 9 panels and his one prior graded race resulted in an 8thplace finish. Though he’s a decent horse, I don’t expect much of him here.
Xanderman’s Irish Quest will round out the field and heads to the post at 18/1. The son of Rainbow Quest likes to go long and hasn’t run this short a race since last year. He’s coming off a strong win in an overnight stakes, but ran fifth in his last graded attempt. This race is likely to be both too tough and too short for him, but he’s a competitive horse in the right spot.
That’s it! It’s a nice field overall, with two superstars, several additional very tough runners, and a few longshots who, while almost certainly out of their depth, are perfectly nice horses. Good luck to the horses and trainers!