Off Like A Rockette: Radio City Brings Out Sophomore Speed

This weekend, it’s a nostalgic feeling in New York.  It’s a holiday weekend, but it’s also…like it’s the end of a magical time of summer that comes but once a year.  Still, New York does like a memorable summer weekend, with a card of nine strong stakes events dominating this weekend’s action.  And arguably the most competitive of these is the finale, the $500,000 Radio City Stakes, a Grade I sprint at six furlongs for three-year-olds that will be the sixteenth race on this holiday weekend card.

The weekend may have a similar grade I for sophomore sprinters in Kentucky, but that didn’t dilute the talent assembled for this dash, featuring some of the Sim’s best pure sophomore speed racers.

Here’s the field, in order of their sprint division ranking:

Polish Reality (#31) has only missed hitting the board in one of his fourteen starts for the champions4 stable.  This son of Polish Navy-Knowledge, by Gulch, is a front-runner who will be making his North American debut in this spot, and has been putting up strong results overseas.  He’s won five of eight this year, is a three-time stakes winner, and he ran a career-best 106 in his last, a second in a Dubai allowance.  In a race that surely doesn’t lack for speed, he might just be the fastest in here.  It should be noted he doesn’t have any graded stakes experience, and the tote board has him as a 6-1 co-second choice.  Nevertheless, given the trainer’s background and the colt’s potential, not to mention having N Lawton, the circuit’s leading rider, in the irons, this colt might be peaking at the right time.

Possibilities (#62) is a three-time stakes winner, though two of those came as a juvenile, and comes into this Grade I with only one win this season, at Wisconsin.  The pedigree (Storm Cat-Dastardly Pot, by Capote) suggests maybe longer distances are more his style, and his love of a stretch-drive and his success going longer (all his wins are at seven-and-a-half furlongs and longer) bear that out.  Trainer peter12 might be looking at a bigger picture here than just a graded sprint in the immediate future, and it wouldn’t surprise to see this race as a stepping stone to other directions for this colt.  His numbers fall just a touch shy of the best in the field, and while the abundance of speed might hint that a closing kick would be a factor in the race, the inclination is to watch this one in a longer spot down the road instead.

Da’turah (#93) started his campaign on the other side of the country in California, and while he is winless on the year, this son of Machiavellian-Datura, by Sunday Silence has been running with the bullies in the division all year.  Trained by charmer, he’s come close at times, finishing second in his 2005 debut in California’s Forest Prospector, and was a late, game third in the 3YO Derby Day Sprint, a Grade III from the Bluegrass Derby card in May.  His late-running style also measures up a little better with the many speed horses in this bunch, and this colt should be a little more suited to the demands of a six furlong sprint; this would be the right time to pop at a value price in a big race.

Hard To Handle (#110) is an allowance horse looking to make the jump into a graded-caliber field, and while he has only three allowance wins this year, all of his listed-stakes efforts have been very sharp indeed.  He’s been second three times at that level, all of those races allowing him to sit very close to a sharp early pace.  And in the one restricted Smackdown race, the son of Miswaki faded to sixth behind a lightning-quick early pace, but this effort seems to have given him renewed focus on winning races, culminating in a wire-to-wire score in a Upper New York allowance last out.  Trained by the wily zwylde stables, expect him to stalk the speed again; whether he can break through at this level will be determined by just how close he’ll be early on.

Bfiftytwo (#152), for the tirekicker stable, is bred to be a distance threat, in theory (Cryptoclearance-A.P. Gar, by A.P. Indy), but this colt has shown remarkable range and versatility.  He’s won from five furlongs to a mile, and has been either on the lead or tracking the leaders in each of those wins.  His performance in taking Eastern Kentucky’s Prospector Flap two back was a quite impressive exercise in restraint, sitting just off the early speed before taking over and winning with a flourish.  He’s blessed with a range of tactics, but his likely approach here is to sit back in the early stages and wait.  Despite having the versatility to win at up to a mile, he might prefer an extra eighth or so, but a repeat of the Prospector Flap (which earned him a career-high figure of 109) makes him a difficult foe.

Ratcity In Blue is cleverly-named, lightly-raced, and well-bred.  This hyphenate is trained by ruffian99, who has turned this son of Pulpit (from a Raise A Native mare) into a speedy sprint threat.  He only debuted back on February 19, and it took him four tries to break his maiden, but once he did, he got really good, and really swift, really quickly, winning his next three, including his only stakes start to date.  His figures are solid, with his last four races earning 100+ figs, and he wants the lead, and has had it in every dirt start up until the stretch drive.  In a field that will see a sizable group seeking the early lead, he might be hard-pressed to get it alone, but that might work to his advantage depending on his early placement.  He’s a live horse making his graded debut here, and looks to be taken seriously.  Can he stay the distance going to the lead at this level, is the question; find out more here.

Salmon Hater (#162) is another sophomore whose pedigree for distance is belied by his abilities against sprinters.  This trainee of the manager stable has had wins stretching from four-and-a-half furlongs to a mile, and has done it while taking an interest in the pace scenarios, either on the lead or sitting chilly just off of it.  He’s prepped for this by using his turf debut to hone his skills last out, but this son of Deputy Commander-Salubrious, by Storm Cat, has a higher ranking in the classic division than his sprint ranking, and might be better served with a longer sprint, maybe up to a mile.  Whether his early foot is going to be sharp enough at this short distance against this level remains to be seen, but he is a two-time stakes winner, and a three-time winner in ’05, and shouldn’t be dismissed based on his back class as a juvenile.

Post Oak Bluff (#397) is a filly taking on the boys in a Grade I sprint.  From the super2 stables, she’s talented enough—she almost stole her restricted Smackdown race on the lead last out, meriting a 104 fig—but was it a measure of her true ability at a high level, or just her happiness at not having the sloppy track she really didn’t seem to care for at North Florida two back?  She’s a daughter of Kingmambo-Pass The Dice, by Sadler’s Wells, and she’s broken 100 in her figs twice in her seven starts, likes to be at or near the front, and is stakes-placed, but her one try against a Grade III field was a weak seventh, and there are other speedsters that have more appeal to them.  One would suspect that with only six filly sprint stakes this weekend, and only two for sophomore fillies, this would have been a good time to be ambitious in her placement.  She’ll play a role in the pace if she can run back to her Smackdown race last time.

Mastedon (#423), for astapor, has a more sprint-oriented pedigree (Forest Wildcat-One Eator, by Gone West), and he’s really come into his own over the summer.  He’s won two of his last three, coming from off the pace, and his last was a monster, an allowance score over this track in 1:21 3/5 that netted him a 108 fig.  Certainly there’s a lot of potential to be a very classy horse in the autumn, and his closing kick in this field looms large, but he does require a swift pace and a lot of ground to really get his engines firing, and this is his very first dirt race at today’s six-furlong distance.  With so much speed, a closer should be considered for the win in your handicapping, but while his potential cannot be denied, and should be a money player in this field, he is pretty sure to want another eighth of a mile.

Best Auror (#475), for auror, would hope for some showers, as two of his three wins came over off-tracks.  He’s a stakes-placed son of Bestyoucanbe-Colorines, by Seeking The Gold, and his preference appears to be to sit in mid-pack and wait.  His numbers come up just a bit short, though, and the two times his figs cracked the 100 barrier, he had an off-track to guide him along.  He does prefer shorter sprints, however, and with the pace likely to be swift early on, he figures to be in the mix as the field hits the turn.

Mr. Sprint (#526) races under the silks of kyjelly, and he’s a pretty slick speedster.  A son of Aldebaran, he enjoyed Kentucky’s slop in an allowance score two back, where he easily wired the field and broke the 100-fig barrier for the first, and only, time.  He’s a late-developer who has solid room to grow in the division, but his adventures in stakes company do not inspire a lot of confidence this weekend, finishing off the board in both tries.  He’s likely to sit just behind the leaders in the early stages, but his placement amongst this bunch seems rather ambitious.

Barb’s Colt’s Neck (#571), for the sprintbarn, has six wins for his career, five of them this year, and all of those were in allowance company.  Most of those wins, though, were at a mile or a mile-and-a-sixteenth.  He’s bred for routes (Macho Uno-Colts Neck, by Nureyev), but can sit just off the pace; with these, though, he’s more likely to try and get in the game early.  His figures are a notch below these, and his sprint wins came at seven and seven-and-a-half furlongs, indicating that maybe sticking with routes might be a worthier goal for this colt down the line.

Pitbull T (#728), for stakeclaim, has two allowance wins for this son of Storm God-Known Daisy, by Pulpit, and could press matters early, but his stakes ambitions have been bigger than his current abilities, as he’s managed no better than fifth against this level.  He did come off the pace for his allowance effort last out, which earned him a career-best of 97, and he’s a colt whose fortunes should continue to improve as he heads for the end of the year, but this appears to be way too much too soon.

Brittlestar (unranked), a son of Forest Wildcat for the bexley stables, has won three of seven starts, and this lightly-raced colt appears to be coming into his own quickly.  He’s won two in a row on the lead, and his last was a marvelous effort at five-and-a-half furlongs, which was rewarded with a fig of 101.  With three of four starts this year earning figures in the 90s and higher, there’s no reason to believe this horse won’t develop into a very talented one at the short sprints.  But his stakes efforts at a two-year-old were just hideous, frankly.  Making his stakes return at such a high level doesn’t appear on the surface to be a concept likely to help improve his abilities.  He’s a runner, but should be on the outside looking in here.

My selections:

1. Da’turah
2. Polish Reality
3. Hard To Handle
4. Ratcity In Blue
5. Post Oak Bluff

Good luck to all, and happy Labor Day.