Is It Destiny?

The highlight of Saturday’s Northern California card is the 1 ½ mile Grade III Mars Chat Memorial.  In the last race of the day, six three year old colts will battle it out on the grass for a $125,000 purse.

The heavy morning line favorite is Manifest Destiny.  The chestnut son of Storm Cat has banked more than twice as much as any of his rivals, is the only one ranked in the top 25 in long grass races, and is the only one to win a graded stakes.

But Destiny’s current form is questionable, and there are several here that look promising.  For such a small field, the race looks very bettable for a savvy handicapper.

Here is the field:

1. Flying Thunder (3yo c, Thunder Gulch x Pentelicus x Be My Guest) will look to steal this for the Jrisquez barn.  Thunder has two stakes wins and a second in the Grade III Panhandle Park Derby, all on the turf.   In the Sim, he is the only three year old out of Thunder Gulch with a turf stakes win.  Pentelicus appears to add turf ability, but little stamina.  Lately Thunder has been doing late fades while running eight to nine furlongs, so the extra distance may add to his burden.

2. SKSutton trains Wells of Endurance (3 yo c, Sadler’s Wells x A. P. Indy x Danzig).  This expensively bred colt has won four of ten races and has finished first or second in six of his seven turf routes, including a win in the grassy 12 furlong Larry’s Shelf Memorial and a second last out as the third choice in the 12 furlong Danish Zenana Special.  Can run early or can sit just off the pace.  As the only one in the race to have won on the grass at today’s distance, Wells looks like a tempting bet at 7-1.  C Winter, at 17%, takes the mount.

3. The dam of Lucus Augusti (3 yo c, Theatrical x Alvarella(Ire)(Barathea(IRE)) x Shirley Heights(GB)) won three times on the turf at 12 furlongs or longer, and Theatrical only adds to his grassy goodness.  Lucus is four for 14.  He has won at 12 furlongs (last out in The Light Pan Special) and twice on the turf, but has yet to win a turf route and is 0/8 in graded efforts.  His win last time for trainer Galicia looked impressive, but it came against a weak field and in less than eye-popping time.  Lucus has only once earned a speed figure greater than 94.

4. Manifest Destiny (3 yo c, Storm Cat x Stardust Miracle(Fusaichi Pegasus) x Ack Ack) had a streak of six straight turf wins broken in early May.  He has won eight of 13 races including four stakes wins.  He won the Grade I All Your Base Are Belong to Us and, more recently, the Grade II Bean Sprout Turf Cup.  He has put nearly $700,000 in trainer Tigerman’s pocket.  At 16%, Tigerman has the highest win percentage of any of today’s trainers.  He has won over a million dollars and 1,161 breeder points this year.  With top jockey J White aboard, there is much to like.  Those hoping to upset Destiny look no further than his last race.  Though favored, the chestnut colt never fired in the Grade I Big Red Stakes, his only try beyond nine furlongs.

5. All three wins belonging to Husky’s Savage Frontier (3yo c, Esperero x Press Card x Boucher) came as a two year old.  In his nine starts as a three year old he has only managed two thirds.  The return to turf, where he won almost 90% of his money, may help, but there are distance concerns as he is 0/5 in two turn races.

6. Making his stakes debut, Gold Medal (3 yo c, El Prado (IRE) x Bail Jumper x Silent Screen) has been running steadily for the Reems11 barn.  In his eight races as a three year old, he has finished first or second all eight times, all in turf routes. Last time out, he ran away from the field at 11 furlongs.  Makes a big jump from conditioned allowance company to graded stakes and has yet to hit triple digits in his speed figures, but this field is not the strongest graded stakes you will find.  Jockey V Nagle is winning at a 17% clip in 2005.  Deserves a long look.

Morning Line choices: 4-1-5-3

Timmn’s picks: 2-3-4-6

To comment, email timmn@hotmail.com