G1 U Want A Piece Of Me
The champ is here and just happens to be in ripping form. So, who wants a piece of him?
Welcome all to the debut running of the $500,000 G1 U Want A Piece Of Me Stakes open to all horses 4yo and up at 12f on turf. Champion turf router – the number one ranked Horseshoe Bay will be the headline act here in Ireland this week as a field of 11 contest a race that looked over until the rain set in mid week and soaked the track leaving it rated as good. It may make things much more interesting as Horseshoe Bay would be unbackable on a non rain affected surface and although he will probably still be, funny things happen on wet tracks.
Lets take a look at how I think they will finish:
Winner:
PP #5 – HORSESHOE BAY (texasace) 4/5
I could write a whole page blowing smoke up this guy but everyone knows about his past performances and credentials as he eats 12f G1 races for breakfast. He has raced twice on rain affected ground with one win last year in the 12f G1 John Scott that saw him pocket $600,000. He ran a 110 on that occasion and has only posted higher than that another three times in a thirty-five race career which indicates this may not change the expected outcome. He has hit the board in his last twelve appearances and won the G1 Simply The Best last time out by over five lengths against a decent field. Hot form, a distance specialist and a barnstorming G1 12f wet track win tell me that although he has been eating for a while – he is still not finished.
Best of the beaten brigade:
PP #4 – DANCIN IN SEATTLE (eliza) 11/1
Wow, what wet track form. Three runs at 12f or more in either stakes or graded company for a 100% success rate. That is a telling stat in itself however this 6yo son of Danzig has nailed the G1 Lousiana Turf Classic at 12f and the G1 Bid Turf Race at 14f with SP’s of 102 and 100 respectively. Very poor and inconsistent form after winning a stakes race at 12f by over eight lengths in early February on yielding turf and is only in his race with a chance on the basis that he can handle soft ground really well. Based on his last three wet track runs he will lead and attempt to go wire to wire, but as we all know, that is a mammoth task against Horseshoe Bay. He must therefore lead and control the tempo to suit himself leaving enough in the tank to hold challengers out in the stretch.
PP #10 – ARCADIA JACK (jackworm) 10/1
First impression says not a hope but look at his off track. Five runs for 80% wins and 100% ITM says he could give a fair bit of cheek. The rain may be his only saving grace as his form in his three jump outs this year is nothing short of horrid having battled in allowance company then being nailed in stakes and graded company last time out. Has lost his last three races buy a total of forty-three lengths and trainer jackworm must have selected this race because of the track. Ran a 101 on rain affected turf to win his last race for 2006 and he must recapture the form from that run if he is to fire a shot at the champ in this.
ITM chances:
PP #1 – DRAGNIPUR (dormello) 8/1
4yo son of Sadler’s Wells and grandson of Blushing Groom will get the trip but I cannot see him getting to the line quicker than the top three. Jockey E Doyle has 40 wins at 12.7% this year and must ensure that he takes a sit off the leader and goes for home early if they are to taste any form of glory. He races best when ridden this way as highlighted by his two most recent wins at 10.5 and 11f. Ranked at 210 and appears to be needing a drop in class to be a shot at winning, however if he can get a good run he may just run a cheeky race and steel a placing.
PP #2 – CRAZY EIGHTY EIGHT (soumillion) 16/1
Looking at this guys breeding I am at a loss to work out how he could possibly get 16f and even more amazed that he won. He is however inbreed to Secretariat 3SX5D and has Zabeel in him which should help him on the softer ground and distance. Dumped at the end of last year he has certainly developed and has rewarded soumillion with some great displays of late with six races for two wins, two seconds and two thirds including a last start 16f win running a SP of 85. Before that he run a 95 at 14f and the drop back on 12f should be right. Needs to be tested in listed stakes before taking on the best turf router at 12f in the game but this may give his trainer an idea as to just how good he is.
PP #11 – PAPA’S BOOGIE (handyman1) 11/1
Hailing from the Pastures of Green Residency is this 4yo son of A.P. Indy. Well breed for this trip as handyman found out when dropping him back to allowance class last time out when he was smashed by eleven lengths. Has placed 4th and 5th on a rain affected track at 11f G2 level and should go close to an ITM run this week. Can either lead or take a mid-field sit and if he is to run in the top five this week he must stalk the leader and stick on in the stretch.
Also rans:
PP #8 – QUEEN OF EGYPT (stoners) 76/1
4yo daughter of Empire Maker who should have been tested at this trip prior to racing in a G1. If he gets the trip and can deal with such a class spike, she may run a cheeky race. Don’t think she can run ITM but she could figure. Her dam was a dirt sprinter and she has raced seven of eight career starts on dirt with one average run on turf. Needs to be tested at this trip in NW2L allowance.
PP #9 – THE SMUGGLER(IRE) (champions) 19/1
I don’t think this guy is going to run this trip too badly here. 12f is a shot out of the blue and he certainly doesn’t pose a threat to the top three but I think he may run a good race. He has not raced in listed class let alone a G1 so he will be in deep water. Went though the allowance level classes and would prefer to see him in listed class before this.
PP #3 – STILL SMOKUME (slades) 16/1
4yo daughter of Fu Peg who races on dirt but did show a glimmer of promise on the turf at the start of her 3yo season. Three wins this year including a 10.5f stakes win at this track on dirt in 3182 but seems desperately out of form in her last two starts and this may be the reason for a dabble on the green stuff. Prefer to see her at 10f before a G1 12f race.
PP #6 – DESERT REGENT (champions) 7/1
Old war horse who is well past his prime but still manages to pump out high SP figures on the dust after a career littered with 100 and 110+ SP’s. Has raced predominantly on dirt with five graded placings but has also won and placed in stakes races on turf at 9f with SP’s of 104 and 109. Grand old chap that cannot figure in this and would be better in a 10f turf race at allowance level.
PP #7 – SOLARIS (slades2) 14/1
Thunder Gulch 5yo with one average run on turf and thirty-one decent runs on dirt in allowance class. Will run last! First run for stable but needs to be tested on turf at 8f in claiming or allowance class.