The BB Game Millionaire’s Club
As Roys pointed out in her write-up of my Hometown Handicap on the New Yorker undercard, I’ve been very busy this week in Gotham, not just covering a race, but I have six horses entered on New York’s card, from longshots in my own race and the Due North, to the favorite in the Hacksaw Stakes, to a couple of maidens and an allowance horse. I’m busy there this week, but even if I’ve got nothing but longshots, I know in the end, it’s more than Just A Game.
This brings me to the race I came here for journalistic purposes (if I was covering marine biology, I’d be here for journalistic porpoises). I get to hand out a check (hopefully, beyond hope, to myself—I didn’t plan it that way, but oh well) in the sixteenth race, but also get to cover the $175,000 Breeders Bowl Game, a Grade III turf mile for fillies and mares in New York. The BB Game has a history of some great horses within its nine runnings. It’s a Who’s Who of distaff millionaires. Hall Of Famer Seriously Double won in 2001, along with other millionaires such as Buttery Ton, Bourbon Cat, Ice Princess, Bella Figura and Back In Your Arms, who last year set a stakes record of 1:34 1/5. This year, four millionaires aim high four a chance to join the division’s elite in the record books.
The millionairesses (not “million heiresses”, as my spellcheck wants me to type; do we really need that many skinny cry-babies named after cities in our universe?) include such stars as Mumbai, who looks to regain the form that earned her a 2004 Breeders Bowl win as well as a 1,000 Guineas win the following year; Cold Storage, a wily veteran eager for one final push to glory after last year’s Breeders Bowl Turf Distaff win; K’s Panache, lightly raced this year but already with a Grade I win in January; and Lake Bemidji, who won a graded race last fall but is looking for her first graded turf route win in a calendar year. The field hasn’t been a model of consistency as of late, but will the veterans lead the way, or is there an Eve Harrington in the gate? Let’s take a look at the field, as we go a l’il somethin’ like this:
Mumbai [Sadler’s Wells-Sound And Fury, by Kingmambo, trained by chilcoat] has the rail and a competent jockey, and has maybe the most consistent recent form of the bunch. She has four wins in her last seven starts, dating back to last November, and has earned a check each time out, coming from off the pace without making a rear charge. The wins don’t inspire the most confidence, but one of them was a graded win in the Grade III Short Female Sprint at Ascot in April, which in terms of recent form is helpful. There are signs, however, that she’s rounding back into form. She was a closing third in the Grade III Sure Will over yielding ground last time out on May 12, her second money finish over wet ground in three starts, earning a 103 speed figure. And she’s shown the canny ability to improve her performances in starts immediately following wet-turf races, with two wins and a second in three starts following a race over a wet course. The last-out 103 is quite good, all things considered, and should add to her fitness level coming in here. The course has been playing very fair as of late, and this should give her campaign added momentum coming into an important event such as this; the 2004 BB Juvenile Turf Filly winner, who also won the 2005 Grade I 1,000 Guineas, has enough back class and good recent form to be a potent stretch-running threat, and the 6-1 price is hidden value for the bettors. The chilcoat organization has a mare who is looking good in a fine field of turf distaffers.
Cocoa(IRE) [Swain x Miesque’s Son, trained by nyrangers] isn’t necessarily a summertime treat. Indeed, her career shows exactly zero wins after Memorial Day over four seasons of racing; the latest she has won prior to the start of summer has been May 28, 2005, two days prior to that year’s Memorial Day in America. That’s not to say she’s incapable, but she does appear to be a horse for just three seasons. That’s a shame, because this smokeglack barn representative did start her career red-hot, with eight wins in her first twelve starts, including 2005’s Grade II Prancing Ferry and 2006’s Grade III Los Florostat. Times have gotten tougher since the Los Florostat victory. She’s won just once in the last fourteen months, though she’s been very close in each of those thirteen starts, picking up a check in nine of them. What makes this filly interesting here, though, is the fact that, in her twenty-ninth start, this filly will try to go beyond a mile for the first time. She usually has a tendency to head to the front and set or just stalk the pace, and the question is whether this will translate to contending from gate to wire. Her speed figures sprinting are quite competitive, but recent numbers have struggled to go higher than the mid-90s while other challengers are still capable of firing in the mid-100’s; it’s going to be feast or famine in her first time over a route distance, and with some other speed here and this one’s untested abilities and questionable recent form, she’s going to need a race (and ride, from a jock with a 6% win percentage) beyond that which she’s experienced in the last two years.
Cold Storage [Victory Gallop-L’Rod’s Songbirds, by Unbridled’s Song, trained by springtime] has class to burn from an outstanding 2006 campaign which culminated in the 2006 BB Turf Distaff win. But where 2006 was an awesome sight, 2007 has found this filly in…well…cold storage. She’s been positively frigid since the BB win. She’s only 0-for-5 since then, but she’s failed to be competitive much of the time. She faded to fourth after leading in the Grade I Penn Distaff last December, but faded very badly the next week, on December 23, in the Grade I Harry Trotsek, finishing fifth and beaten more than fifteen lengths after leading for seven furlongs; whether it battling the boys or just fatigue is debatable, but it appears she’s not been the same mare since then. Three subsequent starts, each in a graded race, found her beaten a combined fifty-one lengths, and each speed figure was 15-20 points lower than her stellar races last year. The bigrick stables are trying different tactics here, turning back to a mile from her preferred classic routes of ten furlongs or so, and one wonders whether her usual tactics of going out front early and quickly will be the chosen path against some talented milers. The last time she went a mile was New Year’s Eve of 2005, and she was a very game third that time; the cut-back in distance will certainly help her out short-term, and her back class is always a valid intangible, but the recent form presents a challenge of faith. She may need the race at this distance to jump-start a comeback to even a fraction of last year’s magnificent reputation.
Angel Girl [Geri x Mountain Cat, trained by mizuno] is the type of mare you like to see in an event like this, as she’s in good current form and has proved herself as a gamer within this division at the mile races. Representing the arjay outfit, she’s the only last-time-out graded winner here, capturing the My Tulip in Kentucky on May 12, and that was her first graded win as well as her first win in seven months for this six-year-old mare. She’s another closer, but not the deep-threat type that comes from a county away for the win; that type is not in good standing in this field. She’s got ten wins in twenty-nine starts, and earnings of a half-million in the bank, but eight of her wins have come at distances longer than a mile, so this race might be maybe a furlong too short for an optimum effort. Still, handling a mile in a classy field on the current form (she’s hit the board in six of seven 2007 starts, including the graded win last out) might not be that difficult for her. Her numbers are somewhat consistent and competitive among the contenders, if a touch on the low side, but with the general recent form among these being hard to mesh into an established pattern, she appears poised to try and continue her breakthrough at this level.
Jahmaican Rainbow [Rainbow Quest-Dastardly Cat, by Tabasco Cat, trained by tycodog5] is, at age 7, the elder statesmare of this field. She’s well-bred, but has been long flying well under the radar of turf mares seeking a big score. Her earnings are low, career-wise (just $200,000), but ten wins in allowance company is still a solid achievement. What makes this mare reasonably intriguing is her turf record. Her first three grass races, between 2002 and 2004, were fair to middling efforts, and her speed figures reflected this, with the highest being a 78 in March of 2004. Three years later, her next two grass starts, which coincidentally were her last two starts, were a pair of allowance wins at British Columbia, against a pair of solid fields featuring some stakes winners and otherwise graded-place horses; these two wins earned speed figures of 102 and 101, respectively. Clearly, through maturation over fifty-one career races, this filly has bloomed, better late than never, into a good turf mare at a mile. This, however, is a steep rise in class so late in the game. In only two stakes outings on dirt, she finished fifth both times, and hasn’t tried graded foes at all, ever. This is also her first stakes race since October 1, 2005. But what keeps her a most intriguing candidate here is her pedigree. Her dam was second in this race in 2001 (age 5) and fourth here in 2002 (age 6), and her sire is a fine turf-influential stallion. And with the strong pedigree and recent blossoming in form, despite a distinct lack of seasoning, the late bloomer has solid-enough credentials to possibly pull a surprise and play a role in the race from a stalking position; it wouldn’t surprise me.
Thunder Lover [Thunder Gulch-Deputy’s Weekend, by Deputy Minister, trained by sexinalimo] is another filly with form that is solid if not necessarily spectacular in recent weeks, and she seeks her breakthrough performance here. She loved the wet course last out when she was second in the Sure Will, and earned a strong 104 for her effort. She’s hit the board in each of her last seven outings, with a record of 7-3-1-3 in that span, but the Sure Will was the closest she’s come to crashing through the wall of a graded win. The wet-course race last time out was her only time on an “off”-track, so it remains to be seen whether she’ll get a bump from the softer ground or if she just prefers a turf course with some give to it. She’ll hang just off the leaders here, but may require some extra coaxing by her competent local jockey to burst through. It’s worth noting that in each of her grass starts at a mile, she’s not yet failed to hit the board each and every time. She might need a slight speed-figure bump for a win here, but she’s certainly capable of the extra improvement for the cleverdoc outfit.
Stroppy [High Yield-Alydar Shaft, by Sadler’s Wells, trained by ponybaby] represents the braveheart amalgamation of barns, but hasn’t won a stakes race since April of 2005. That being said, it should be noted she was on the shelf for nine months, and just returned to the races with an easy allowance win on March 10. She won so easily that day, by four-and-a-half lengths, that the idea she may have needed the race after such a long rest may be a wake-up call for the others assembled in this field; the second-race-off-a-long-layoff angle is usually a strong handicapping angle. She turns back from nine-and-a-half to eight furlongs here, which is arguably her preferable distance, having earned one of her two stakes wins at a mile. This should improve her chances, along with the freshness angle, but the one thing missing is a recent triple-digit speed figure; the last 100+ number came nineteen months ago, a 104 at a mile-and-a-sixteenth when second in a stakes race. She’s fresh but maybe still rusty, and while the turnback in distance should be to her benefit, she might yet need another race; lastly, a Grade III race as the second act of a comeback story, with the presence of four millionaires and a host of more active competitors, is a sharply uphill climb. I would watch her coming out of this to see if she’s finally back as a role-player within the turf division.
Run River Run [Elnadim x Northfields, trained by royaltb] is the longest shot on the board for her connections. While the field is a motley crew of millionaires and new challengers, this four-year-old tries the ambition angle. The placement is high, but this filly’s abilities are quite fair, all things considered. Claimed three starts back for $2,000 (after being claimed the race prior for $5,000), she was immediately placed in a NW4x allowance (in spite of still being eligible for a NW2x) and ran very credibly, setting the pace before fading late. Not content with an allowance near-miss, she was fifth after again leading early in a stakes on the Middle Jewel undercard three weeks ago. The 92 there might still be about 15 points lower than the favorites at their best here, but it was the best non-claimer speed figure in a year for the plucky four-year-old, and her career-best back then, a 94, was earned when second in a second-level allowance against the boys. I’m not going to sugar-coat the fact this filly is decidedly up against it at a high level of competition, but her presence here, while ambitious, is not bad placement at all. She may need more seasoning before she can think about scoring in a graded stakes, but her numbers have improved since the most recent claim, and the trainer clearly has her moving forward, if slowly and through ambitious placements; while allowances might be a wiser level to try first, she should glean some benefit from running against much better foes and could be, eventually, a solid allowance runner once she returns to her proper allowance conditions. She’ll influence the pace, and could help to set it up for a closer if her turn of foot is fast enough here, and she gets the services of one of the Sim’s fine Southern gentlemen in the irons.
Gove Struck Gold [Carson City x Northern Dancer, trained by ipitombe] is one of the last of her sire’s progeny to hang around the Sim as a high-level, active racer, but the blue-blooded pedigree can’t mask some open questions about her turf potential. Since making the surface switch back on April 1, 2006, she’s had six turf tries, and only won once, an allowance sprint over the boggy course on a rainy day in Arkansas. That win gave the gove collective of stables some hope that a new turf sprint star was born—she earned a 103, after all—but she hasn’t quite seized on that admittedly-impressive open allowance win to become the threat she may have been envisioned as. In the subsequent five races, she’s earned two paychecks in a pair of off-the-board finishes, but the speed figures have gotten no higher than a 91 in another wet-grass race, a Virginia stakes, in her 2007 debut. She’d prefer the ground to be softer, but this stakes-winning dirt sprinter might just want to say sayonara to the grass altogether, and the past performances (a string of five 90+ speed figures over her last six dirt races, including a 101) bear this out. She’s a closer, but no matter the surface, the distance is a question mark regardless; the last time she hit the board at this distance was a third on Christmas Day, 2004, in a stakes race, and though she closed well enough that day, she would later improve her performances and speed figures in future sprint races. She’d move up modestly over a soft turf course, but she still is in need of improvement by about 20 points in her speed figures to become a factor.
K’s Panache [Fusaichi Pegasus x Mill Reef, trained by kuovadis] represents ledwith‘s stable group, and she comes in from the European division for a role as a 5-1 co-second choice here. She might be the most consistent of the favorites, however. She’s had five straight 100+ speed figures coming into this race, and this includes three stakes wins (which in turn includes a Grade I win in the Sexy Muffins Classic three races back). She’s been taking it easy this year, with just three starts; last time out, in the Adelaide Mile, she flattened out in the lane and only managed a third behind Cosmo Girl and Running Scared. Her last five speed figures were in the low-100s, and while they’re not quite as high as a couple of the other contenders, singularly, they are consecutively impressive; only Thunder Lover can match that streak, but she’s only ran in one graded race in her last five, and K’s Panache has run in three graded stakes in that span. New York has not been kind to this filly, though, as she was third here in this race last year, and fourth later on in a Grade I race last September. She likes to make her best run from the rear of the field late, and likely will need to do that again for her best effort. She hasn’t failed to earn a piece of the purse in twenty months, and should be in the mix here; a solid threat, because you cannot ignore a millionaire with a win percentage of over 51.8% in her career.
Running Scared(IRE) [El Prado(IRE) x Roberto, trained by crazyjoe] isn’t much afraid of anyone, but she’s a bit frustratingly inconsistent these days for the Evil Empire of lenny271. Winning her 2007 debut and being second in a Grade II last out in the Adelaide Mile is pretty good, usually, but in the big graded races, she’s been too tantalizingly close for comfort. A definite stalking type, she managed to just sit off the leaders in races such as the Adelaide Mile, the Grade I Rock Of Cashel, and the Grade III Scary Movie Special, but when it came time to make her move, horses like Cosmo Girl, K’s Addiktion and The Neutral Zone usually had much more momentum and passed her by to get the wins she was set up for. When she altered her tactics, as in the shorter Grade I Princess Bowl Sprint, she came up short despite closing very well, and was nabbed by Dance Seeker and Brahms Avenger. It’s not as if a mile is beyond her—she has an allowance win at nine furlongs in her past, and her routing speed figures hold up very well versus this Grade III field—but her racing luck has her a little snake-bit. In the Adelaide Mile, though, she was coming out of a Grade II over a wet turf course, and ideally she should reap the benefits two removed from that race to remain a stalwart opponent in this race. Expect her once again to sit chilly off the lead pack, and without too many deep closing threats (but in spite of a lot of modest closers and other capable stalkers assembled here), she might find herself blessed with a little bit of racing room to maximize the potential she’s shown to date.
Lake Bemidji [Miswaki x Danzig, trained by ajr15] is the last of the millionaires in this race, on the outside of the others, and possesses the best last-time-out speed figures in this big field, a 107 earned while winning a May 12 stakes in Illinois. The one-time $20,000 claimer won her first seven grass races after a surface switch, and has since picked up a pair of graded wins (most recently the Grade I No Respect Blitz on DelPenn Champions Day last December) along with three Grade I second-place finishes (including the Equinics of 2006 against the girls, and the Eddie O of 2006 against the boys). The long grass sprints and short, mile routes are her stock-in-trade, and so is making a strong, deep closing move in the final half-mile of races. The stakes win last out was a good example of it, and she’s capable enough to try that again here; the resulting 107 was her best speed figure in nine months. This marks, though, her first graded race against fillies and mares since last fall, and, drawing an outside post, her closing move might be slightly hindered. Her late kick is strong enough to make up a ton of real estate late, even against the very best of fields, and the last time she was so far outside in the gate against other fillies was in the Equinics, where the wet grass and the outside post probably cost her enough ground to fall that half-length short. The pace doesn’t figure to be all that fast here, but there’s a lot of capable stalkers here that could make it difficult to make a lot of inroads late, should they get to the front with enough momentum early enough.
Wind Of Change(GB) [In The Wings(GB) x Vaguely Noble, trained by ajm] is on the far outside, and is another whose best run comes from way off the pace. With just 19 career starts, she’s the most lightly-raced of this bunch, but that might not translate to a peak performance, necessarily. She ran the race of her life three years ago, earning a 113 when second in the Grade III High Lady Cup. But there’s a key phrase in that complex sentence: “three years ago”. See, she just returned in March off of a nineteen-month vacation. And she’s been pretty good at shaking off the rust in her first three starts on the comeback trail. She closed solidly with a 90 and a 94, respectively, in a pair of comeback allowances before clearing her NW4L allowance condition three races back when shortening up to a mile. But in the last two starts, which have come against graded foes in her first graded events since August 21, 2004, she was outrun in both the Grade II Hannah Barbera Cap (an 89 speed figure) and in the Grade III Sure Will (an 85, over a wet course). The obvious hope is for distinct improvement coming out of that wet-grass race, but against a tough field, even at what like his her preferred distance, she’s still currently about 20 points shy of where she should want to be against such opposition. She’s a capable mare at her best, even now, but she still has a NW4x condition she’s eligible for, and unless she gets a major boost from the swtich back to a firm turf course, the comeback attempt might still have hit another curve to overcome.
My selections:
1. Mumbai
2. Angel Girl
3. Thunder Lover
4. K’s Panache
5. Jahmaican Rainbow
Good luck to all comers, and happy racing.