Top ranked routers go head to head in the Lightning
The Can Lightning Strike Twice, Grade 1 race over 2 miles at Kentucky has drawn a very strong field of 10, set to go out after a share of the half a million dollar prize pool. Fine, hot weather has left us with a fast dirt track, which is certain to suit most runners here, some having recently made the switch from turf and found the dirt more favourable.
The top two ranked long distance dirt trackers line up here, one coming off a big win, and one coming off a big loss. The one filly in the race will be looking to turn the tables on her last start conquerer, and the Bluegrass Derby winner is sent out for a try at the longer trip, and makes this an even more interesting race.
1 ID#87471 ENTER THE BEAST(GB) qwikvett1 M Margolf 9/1
Coming off a huge win in the G1 Whiskey Cup last start over the same track and distance, where he registered an impressive SP#103 to score at big odds (paying 15.90 for the win). That run made it two in a row at this track, following some ordinary form, where he was beaten by big margins in weaker company. Has three wins over the 2 miles, so has more than proven himself over this distance, and appears to love it here in Kentucky. Is not the classiest runner of the field, but seems to have struck the best form of his career and should not be taken lightly.
2 ID#85851 KANAKA emanon P McCarthy 8/1
This 6yo son of Alysheba proved a mile too good last time, when he took up the running just over half way from home and sprinted away from the pack, to win by a big margin. Gets an extra 3 furlongs here which he is proven over at stakes level having taken out the Captain’s Pots Challenge 5 runs ago. Obviously running in some very good form, after putting 5 wins on the board from his last 7 starts and he has been nicely rested for this. Has a very capable jockey in the saddle (P McCarthy 14%) and will be sure to give this a shake.
3 ID#132587 NEW AKAAB BARGAIN 6ward2 L Goodburn 54/1
The outsider of the field, has only had 8 starts, and makes the jump from a claimer 2 runs ago, to a grade 1 here indicating new trainer, 6ward2, must have a high opinion of this colt. Had only his first race on dirt last time out, and showed a big improvement, running a SP#95, which is 15 higher than his previous best. Unraced beyond 9 furlongs, so both the distance and the class are the big queries, which makes him entitled to be at the big odds he’s showing.
4 ID#102209 FROZEN FOUR dixiedotco R Coleman 5/1
The only filly of the race, lines up against the males here, coming off a huge run in the South Australian Cup over 16 furlongs, in which she was just run down over the final stages by Credit Given. Before that, she led all the way against the other mares to win the Northern Smoke Challenge easily. Her new front running tactic seems to be working, so it would not surprise for her to try it again here, and give the favourite something to chase down again. R Coleman (17%) takes the ride which could prove the difference to last time, and she is sure to be in this for a long way.
5 ID#4660 SAVAGE DUKE love2win B Drewrey 7/1
A veteran 10yo by Sudden Flare, who returned to racing two starts back after a long lay off of almost 5 years. His comeback has not been up to the same standard as his trainer may have hoped, finishing well back on both occassions. Back to the two mile here, over which he won two stakes races in a row back just before he was sent to the paddock in 2002. In a new stable now and should be fitter for his two runs back, but hard to see him winning in this class at this age against a tough field.
6 ID#41814 HEAVY ON THE CREAM trij B Alt 5/1
Finally broke through for a win after 5 successive finishes on the board, and did it in great style, racing away from the rest of the field at the half way mark and maintaining his advantage for the rest of the journey to win by nearly 8 lengths. Won’t have it all his own way in front here, but both of his 16 furlong attempts have been impressive. Will need to step it up a notch to go with some of these, as he ran a full second slower than the winning time for the South Australian Cup, but he may well have had plenty left in the tank if he had have been challenged. Has been placed in Grade 3 event before, but this is a further step up, but one that he could be capable of taking. Jockey has a 4% win record so that is against him.
7 ID#96731 VIRTUOSO super7 B Fultz 5/1
Dropped back to an allowance last time here in Kentucky after having run all but his first two starts in stakes or graded races. He won that with ease, and now jumps straight back to a Grade 1, rising in distance to 2 miles, which is 3 furlongs more than he’s ever gone before. Has won three of his four starts here now, including the Grade 1 Bluegrass Derby, so likes the track. Has gotten some form back now, and with the try at the extra distance, he shapes up as a very good chance here, with a shot to push his winnings over $4million.
8 ID#111912 SHACKLEBOLT lenny17 T McJulien 11/1
Switched to dirt last time and enjoyed a very soft win over a field of 5. Has never quite put it all together when up against graded company, his best result being a third in the Adelaide Derby as a 3yo. Has won 4 of his 5 starts over 2 miles, so looks like a true marathon runner, and can win from close up on the speed or further back than midfield. This versatile style might hold him in good stead here, as there could be a lot of pace on, and a few late swoopers who will look to come over the top. He may not have shown that he is the classiest runner of the field, but he hasn’t been given enough tries on the dirt to truly show what he’s capable of, so this will be a big test.
9 ID#98926 TUNAMAN togasans D Sherman 6/1
His only time over the 2 mile journey has been a failure in the Grade 2 Breeders Bowl Uncard Marathon. But two starts ago he ran a SP#98 over 14 furlongs to win the Grade 2 Long Walk Handicap, so he may have needed a bit more maturing before he was able to get the distance, and he certainly shows a preference for the dirt tracks. Lining up for his 4th start in only eight weeks, so hopefully he won’t be too tired to run the trip right out and show his best, but he isn’t the second top ranked dirt long router in the sim for no reason. The wide draw will enable him to sit back off the pace with the outside drawn favourite and make a late charge with him, so watch for him to be finishing off strongly.
10 ID#86673 CREDIT GIVEN(IRE) brentuk B Sipe 3/1
The top ranked long dirt router in the sim lines up from the outside gate, and comes off a huge sprint home in the South Australian Cup to run away a 4 length victor. He hasn’t missed the board in his last 15 starts, and his last failure was on the unsuitable turf. There is not too much to indicate he should drop out of form for this, so should go well again, although he does meet some tough opposition here so will need to be at his best. All eyes will be on him as he sprints home over the top, but he is sure to be set a challenge by the rest of the field looking to knock him off his mantle.