That’s the Way the Cookie Tosses

The Florida track’s racing secretary does not appear well, although he claims it is a minor case of the stomach flu and has nothing to do with the size or quality of the field gathered for the inaugural running of the Grade III Tossing Cookies Special.

The stakes, which was carded to handle as many as 20 runners, only attracted nine, and only one of them is ranked in the top 100.

“We are trying to start a new tradition in southern Florida with this race,” he said.   “We’re very pleased with the field.  They are very well bred and improving.  You may not have heard of all of these fillies yet, but we think there are several in here you will be hearing a lot of in the future.”

Then the secretary scampered off to some nearby bushes, thereby ending the interview.

He was certainly right about attracting some interesting runners.  Many of the best known players in the Sim have entered their fillies here, and the breeding on most of the field is intimidating enough.

Here is a look at the field:

1. EXPENDITURE(KY)  (AWESOME AGAIN x UNBRIDLED x ALYDAR)  bred and trained by Stupor2 (19%)  Odds: 3-1

This co-favorite is from the high percentage Lenny Empire, which is always reason to respect.  She is closing in on a half million in earnings in only ten starts to dominate the field in earnings per start.  She’s five of seven in dirt routes and exits a residency restricted stakes win where she made a bold late move.  Even more impressive was the race before where she made another strong move to earn a close fourth in the GI Fool and His Money.  Pace in front should be honest.  No weaknesses to see.

2. ELYOD’S HOPE(IRE)  (SADLER’S WELLS x NIJINSKY II x LE FABULEUX)  bred and trained by ceejaygee (17%)  Odds: 7-1

This one is out of Techranger’s well-known Chayely Stables.  After watching this Sadler’s Wells filly start her career with five in-the-money finishes in five starts, barn made the reasonable attempt at a grassy stakes last time, only to see her stop badly.  It’s back to dirt, and if she continues the improvement she was showing prior to that last race, she fits with these.  In her lone dirt stakes try, she was third of six against a tough listed field. 

3.  TAILOR MADE(IRE)  (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DEPUTY                   MINISTER x FORTY NINER)  bred by fatattack, trained by skunkieluv (11%)                       Odds: 3-1

This favorite is from Winterhart’s RottNRoll Racing Stables.  She beat two future Graded winners in her debut win, and has come close to getting that graded win a couple times herself.  With her three stakes wins, her two Graded seconds and a number 41 ranking, she has a big class edge on the field.  Add to that, she has the only triple digit speed figure in the race.  She took a freshening from January to May came back to win two straight, and she’s only getting better. 

4. JACOBITE DANE(FL)  (INDY KING x IRISH ROYAL (IRE) x DOYOUN(IRE))  bred and trained by natalyaeve (8%)  Odds: 9-1

In March this filly rallied smartly to win a ten horse stakes.  It was a shrewd training move, but perhaps too intoxicating for her connections.  None of the fillies she beat that day have ever won a stakes, and this filly really hasn’t shown improvement since that race.  She was the best finisher among several stablemates in the Bargain Oaks last time, finishing fourth in a field of 13.  The jump in class from that race to this is a bold move. We love to see an underdog win and will be rooting for her.

5. HABITAT’S SONG(KY)  (SONGANDAPRAYER x HABITAT x LORD GAYLORD)  bred and trained by booberry (14%)  Odds: 7-1

The veteran Sjmeola Racing Stables will make their 10,000^th start this week.  Ten thousandth start.  Seven of its stables have over 100 wins.  This filly’s speed figures are on the light side compared to the favorites’, but she’s been a steady check earner, finishing first or second in six of her past seven races.  She comes to North America for the first time and looks to make her usual move from midpack.  A win would be a surprise, but not earning a check for this barn might be an even bigger surprise.  Ten thousand starts.

6. TAHUNA(KY)  (OFFLEE WILD x DANZIG x BUCKPASSER)  bred and trained by lmstable (11%)  Odds: 6-1

She showed nice improvement last time in winning a listed stakes at one turn.  Needs a bit more to win here, but it’s within her grasp.   She faced much better and a tougher early pace in her lone Graded try three races back, so while we are suspicious of her ability to get the distance without a major fade, we are willing to give her the benefit of the doubt.

7. SCOTTISH POET(KY)  (SMART STRIKE x SILVER DEPUTY x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR)  bred and trained by Lexington (10%)  Odds: 27-1

After so much promise, winning two of three as a two-year-old, she’s befuddled her trainers ever since.  She’s tried sprints, routes, dirt, turf, wet tracks, dry tracks, boys, girls, stakes, and allowances, and she’s been losing by nearly 20 lengths on average.  If the theory is she hasn’t tried Graded stakes yet, we are not filled with confidence.  First to register for this race, connections were certainly hoping for easier competition than this.

8. BALANCE(KY)  (THUNDER GULCH x KRIS S. x FORLI)  bred and trained by chloedawg (12%)  Odds: 6-1

I read a preview of this one’s last race where the writer picked this one to upset a similar field in the GIII Timber Stakes.  Idiot.  She was able to beat one other.  The odds are very good that this filly will win a stakes again and perhaps a graded one, but two bad races in a row are reason enough for me to allow this one to win by picking against her.  We still aren’t sure if it is the class level or her current form, but here’s our prediction: watch out for this one around August or September.  The crystal ball is clouding up now.  That will be $10.  Thank you.

9. VALETTO(KY)  (HONOUR AND GLORY x CHIEF’S CROWN x FOOLISH PLEASURE)  bred by 1stsamurai, trained by rockamundo (6%)  Odds: 11-1

No one has any idea how many horses cvbear trains.  It might be a lot.  After a maiden win and one unsuccessful allowance try, the barn decided to step her up to this level.  When some here have earned speed figures in the mid 90’s and higher, a filly who has yet to beat 87 deserves the long odds.  On the other hand, while she in not a likely winner, she’s a game filly who loves to finish second.  Barn would be satisfied with that, and it just might happen.

Summary:  If Elyod’s hope is that a tailor made an expenditure to balance how a Scottish poet could find rhymes for tahuna and valetto so that habitat’s song would delight a jacobite Dane, we are likely all in trouble.  I pick: Expenditure/Tailor’s Song/Habitat’s Song