Turf Up N Comers Do Battle in Japan
In
History: The first running, back in 2000, was won by ENOUGH KNOCK. Back then, this was a Grade II race with a $500,000 purse. In 2001, the bosses decided to drop this race down to a Grade III and lower the purse. Since then, the fastest speed figure ran was a 116 in 2002 by DYNAFORM SIR. Last year, jockey R. Scharf won the race for the 2nd time on EL NINO RAPIDO for trainer oaklawn66.
Let’s take a deeper look at the field of 13. It looks to be a very competitive race.
KEPLER BERZERK (10/1) Trainer bobo sends this 4 year old mare colt in from Epsom. Early this year, he won the Grade I Sand Castle Fee Duty with a speed figure of 109. His last two races have been sub par but on his best he has already shown that he can win a race at this class level.
KOSA NOSTRA (7/1) This 5 year old horse, trained by kasavage, is a competitor. He has been in the money 10 times out of his 18 route races including 6 wins. In his last start, the Grade I Sydney Mile, he closed from dead last to finish 2nd and run a 107 speed figure. He has a monster closing kick and should find some of the money here but may move too late to win.
ROCKIN’ PNEUMONIA(IRE) (8/1) This 5 year old comes in for the stable of pikachu. We will ignore the rough race last out. Prior to that, he ran a career high 108 speed figure in winning the Grade III Boogity Bear Stakes. He is dangerous on the front end in this one.
SPARE T(IRE) (9/2) Trainer super28 sends this 4 year old colt in off a 4th place finish in the Grade I Sydney Mile. In that race, he managed a solid 106 speed figure but did not have enough to win. In the last year, he has run numerous speed figures in the 110+ range and that makes him one of the fastest in this race. His best style seems to be coming from mid pack and closing. He should get a good shot at matching his style in this race so he must be respected as a top contender.
GIFT FROM A KING (18/1) This 6 year old from the stable of sharkster exits a rough start in the Grade I Sydney Mile. He ran a 91 speed figure and was never a factor in the race. He just not fit with these and really does not have a shot at the money. He should be solid in some lesser stakes races though.
MYTHICAT (10/1) This 5 year old trained by amist comes in off a solid 2nd place finish in the Mighty Dancer Memorial Stakes. In that one, he ran an impressive 110 speed figure and just missed. He has raced some small fields and steps up quite a bit in class. I think that may be his downfall. The more classy runners in this race and larger field should keep him from the top 3.
LAST GROOM T (15/1) A 6 year old trained by eastecho99 comes in off a 2nd place in an allowance race. He did run a decent 98 speed figure but to win this race a horse is going to have to be able to dominate allowance foes. Earlier this year he was solid in a few stakes races but his age seems to have caught up with him and even on his best he will have a hard time with these.
A.P. JACK CB (9/1) This 6 year old comes in for the azuma25 stable off a win in the Grade III Port Marshua Handicap. In that race, he came from dead last to win by a nose with a speed figure of 104. He has really had a tough time up to that last race. There are much faster closers in this race and this one may find the money but he will have to work hard for it.
HOLLOW SUN(GB) (8/1) Trainer favoritejj brings this 4 year old colt in here off a 3rd in the popular Grade I Sydney Mile. He managed a 106 speed figure and outran his 17-1 odds on that day. This horse has tons of potential and may be able to find the money here but a few others seem to have the maturity and speed advantage.
FANTASY DREAMS (12/1) This 5 year old comes to race for trainer puke. Two races back, he ran a 103 figure and won a high level allowance race. That is about the best race I can find for him to judge what he will do today. He has attempted Grade III competition before and finished near the back with a 95 figure. I think he is a solid stakes horse but Graded competition may be a bit too much for him.
GHETTO MUPPET(IRE) (9/1) Trainer elnop saddles this 4 year old colt. His last three races have been stakes sprint races and he has managed to get in the money in all of them. Saturday he stretches out to a mile and has ran a 111 speed figure at that distance late last year. There is not a lot of recent races to study at these conditions so it is very hard to figure how he will run on the stretchout. He has been racing very well in stakes so I think he should be considered as a horse that can find a piece of the money here. He has been closing in his last few sprints and this extra distance may be exactly what he needs.
MAGICAL MERLIN (11/1) This 4 year old colt from the lordbyron stable comes in off a strong 2nd in the Grade II Merced Stakes. In that race he ran a career high 103 speed figure. He has been improving with each start and may be dangerous here with more improvement. In his lifetime, he has been in the money in 5 of his 8 turf races and has won 3 of them. This is his 3rd race back off a layoff so we must worry that he may regress some after his two best starts.
SKY TURN TO BLACK (10/1) This 5 year old from trainer fab19 comes in off back to back lackluster Graded race performances. If we ignore those and go back to earlier this year we can find a solid 105 speed figure over 9 furlongs. This one likes to win but his recent performances make me believe that he needs a form reversal to run with the top ones here.
My take: I hate to take the favorite but it is hard to overlook the 110+ figures of SPARE T(IRE). He has class and speed and is the horse to beat without question. ROCKIN’ PNEUMONIA(IRE) is an extremely dangerous horse in this race. There is very little early speed here and he should get a clear early lead on these. My opinion is that ROCKIN’ PNEUMONIA(IRE) pulls off the upset and takes these from gate to wire.