Trying to Snag a Winner
An evenly matched field of eleven fillies, with seven of them set to go off at odds between 4-1 and 7-1, have assembled in
It is possible that some filly will get her first graded win today, as only one here has done it yet. Here’s hoping it won’t be the last as it has for six of the seven previous winners.
Only 2004’s Du Drop Bai went on to win any more graded races. Her Snaggin’ Wagon race, while not the fastest, may have been the most impressive as she beat multiple graded stakes winner Squall is a Storm by five lengths.
As indicated by the odds, this year looks very tough to predict.
Here is a look at the field:
- SAND IN
At 14-1, not much was expected of her last time in the Bluegrass Oaks, and she ran about as expected. The comparisons with Du Drop Bai, 2004’s winner, are obvious. That one also entered after finishing out of the money in the Oaks and was the favorite in this race. Du Drop is the only favorite to win this race. They both even have “
- EUSA(KY) (CAT THIEF x RAHY x MILL REEF) Bred and trained by voltereta (13%) Odds: 7-1
Veteran training connections may surpass 3,500 career wins this weekend. This filly has five wins, including three stakes, in her seven dirt routes. She didn’t beat much last time in a stakes win, but she beat them soundly. Her lone graded try wasn’t good, but she faced much tougher there. There are different fillies in here that look better in just about every category, but as a complete package she just might be the one.
- MAGICAL MYTH(KY) (
After experimenting on surfaces and distances, talented barn has decided this is this filly’s preferred distance and surface. She was the second choice by some talentless BTB hack in the Grade III Go for Broke last time and ran an even fourth. It’s reasonable to expect some improvement off that race, and that would put her right there in this. In 59 rides this year, jockey has managed one win and no seconds. No one has proven the rumors of his sedative addiction, but the rumors persist.
- MISS YOU HATE YOU(ENG) (
With every barn in this large stable producing at a high percentage, it’s tough to find fault with anything they do. This filly always tries hard and always seems close at the end. Her three wins have all been at allowance level, and her speed figures are light compared to others here, so I’ll look elsewhere for the winner, but I would not be surprised to see her earn a check.
- VERA GEMINI(KY) (KINGMAMBO x
After nine tries on the lawn, the Supers decided to try this expensive filly on dirt, and she responded with a convincing stakes win over an okay listed field. This is a tougher group, but it’s hard to argue with undefeated. She needs to show improvement, but she’s certainly eligible to improve.
- DANCE THE BREEZE(IRE) (GENEROUS(IRE) x TAKE ME OUT x TONY BIN(IRE)) Bred and trained by taita15 (6%) Odds: 12-1
In mid-February she won her stake debut and was riding a streak of four wins and a second in her previous five starts. Her last two races have not looked good, as her rallies have come up far short. Barn has been patiently spacing her races and that may help as she looks to regain her form. She’s the type of longshot that can regain form and upset at any time. Working against her here is the general lack of early speed. Most of the field mimics her style: looking to rally from far back.
- ERMINGTON ROSSA(AUS) (TESTA ROSSA (AUS) x FORESTRY x DISTORTED HUMOR) Bred and trained by pigeon2 (15%) Odds: 9-1
With three wins in her past four starts, this rapidly improving filly makes her stakes debut. Barn makes her the second to last filly to enter the race, and we can understand why they liked what they see. This time of year, improving form counts for a lot more than past class success. This filly fits with these. On the down side, she picks up a mediocre jockey and mimics a running style that many others in here share.
8 DRIVE ME TO DRINK(KY) (A.P. INDY x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER) Bred and trained by desperado2 (21%) Odds: 6-1
She’s been first or second in all seven of her dirt routes. Made her stakes debut last time and was outfinished as the 6-5 favorite in a small field. Usually able to rally from just off the pace, and she should be able to settle comfortably in that spot. Needs her best to win, but there’s no reason to doubt she’s ready to give it.
9. RUBY BELLE(AUS) (BEL ESPRIT (AUS) x RUBIANO x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) Bred and trained by fleet1 (9%) Odds: 20-1
She’s tried graded stakes three times and has lost by over 50 lengths in all. She hasn’t finished in the money yet in any race as a three year old. The negatives are too obvious; let’s look for positives. Jockey won this race in 2005. We can forgive her last race because it was a sprint, and the Fantasy Stakes debacle because of the wet track. Let’s just say that deep closers don’t always fire, and she’s overdue.
10. DOMINIQUE’S TEN(KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x FORTY NINER x SADLER’S WELLS) Bred and trained by cheyenne15 (8%) Odds: 22-1
Unconventional longshot trainer is taking an unconventional approach with this filly. All four of this maiden’s races have been in stakes, though the last one was owner-restricted. In those four races, she’s beaten three horses. A conventional trainer, it is safe to say, would not have viewed that as a sign that a class jump was in order.
11. SISTER DEW(KY) (TALE OF THE CAT x WILD AGAIN x CAPOTE) Bred and trained by ce5s97p (16%) Odds: 6-1
In a race full of closers, this speedster figures to have her way with the pace. In all five of her routes she has led at the second call and has three wins and a pair of seconds. Faced early pressure last time in her graded debut and held on to a respectable second against a field similar in quality to this. Loose on the lead, this race is hers to lose.
Summary
If pace makes the race, the nod must go to Sister Dew. Class handicappers also have no trouble in spotting their choice in Sand in