Unusual Circumstances

There is nothing but nothing like a two-year-old, to baffle and inspire absurd hopes.  The GIII Unusual Circumstances Juvenile for fillies at 4.5 furlongs on the dirt is one of the first graded stakes for this year’s two-year-old class.  Maybe Saturday will offer clues to future stardom and maybe it will provide someone’s first, last, and only fifteen minutes of fame.  We won’t know which for months (or years), and that’s part of the race’s charm.

Thirteen fillies are hoping for the first option, and the morning line gives the best shot to Its Over Now.  Zooomr Stables must have saved their pennies to acquire this daughter of Storm Cat and a Seattle Slew mare.  In her only start thus far, she made a start on earning back her purchase price with a win over the Indiana track.  She broke smartly and steadily increased her lead, finishing a length and three-quarters clear with a very solid 70 speed rating.  The second place horse in that race had run a good number in her own first start, lending further credibility to Its Over Now’s effort.

Co-second choice Miss Hennypenny (Hennessy) is the fifth foal of GI-placed A.P. Strawberry (A.P. Indy).  The previous four have all been winners and one (by Wild Again) was a stakes winner at three.  Miss Hennypenny herself got off to a good start with a gutty win in her debut.  Turned back to 4.5 furlongs for race number two, she again dropped near the back of pack and made a big move in the stretch, finishing second by a diminishing quarter-length.  As much as I like closers, I’m a little dubious about them in races this short, and even more about S. Oland’s ability to navigate traffic.

Bernardini’s Hill is the current top earner for freshman sire Bernardini.  I’m not convinced the sim has much love for sons of A.P. Indy, but Jockeymax Stables gave him good blood to work with: this filly is out of a Danehill mare.  Debuting in an allowance during the first week of two-year-old racing, Bernardini’s Hill scored a front-running win.  She then took a two-month break before returning in stakes company on the turf, where she closely tracked the pacesetter and kicked clear in the stretch.  B. Coates, always a top-notch rider, is having a breakout year.

After those three, the odds drop off sharply, and third-choice honors go to Romans Nine at 7/1.  The brown Smarty Jones daughter is out of Debbie Dearest, a stakes-placed Seattle Slew mare who has three older offspring, all winners and one (by Came Home) stakes-placed.  Romans Nine is a speedy sort who finished second in her debut and would not be denied when she rolled back three weeks later.  Another three weeks’ rest to the Unusual Circumstances seems like maybe a bit much for a two-year-old, but her style and numbers fit well and capable jockey A. Ellison will ride.

Crafty Perfection, of Deelynette Stables, won her debut race in good style, stalking the leaders and then putting them away to finish a length clear with a 76 speed rating under her belt.  That race came in Massachusetts over a “good”-rated track, and at the Unusual Circumstances distance.  The More Than Ready daughter is out of Crafty Quartorze, a winner by Louis Quartorze.

Another Storm Cat baby will break from the far inside.  Storm the Skies hails from Topicount Stables and is based with DelPenn National.  She’s the first foal of Surf N Sand (Sky Mesa), a real quality racemare who was a GI winner at two.  Storm the Skies is off to a similarly fast start with two allowance wins over in Germany.  Her numbers are a little slow, which no doubt explains the 11/1 odds, but it’s worth noting that she won handily, and beat up on lackluster field last out.  L. Buchholtz is having a great year and after a couple of confidence-boosters, this seems like a good place to test the filly’s mettle and quality.

Young stallion Roses In May got off to an okay-but-unbrilliant start last year and Roses On The Moon (out of a Malibu Moon daughter) hopes to turn that around for his second crop.  Minnesotan connections Chuckrock Stables sent the chestnut down south to start her career.  She was thirteen early in the race, but slipped between horses until she found herself in front, a length and a quarter clear at the wire.  The 65 speed rating she earned there was workmanlike, but I don’t like T. Roberts’s piloting much more than Oland’s, above.

Second-year sire Kitten’s Joy has been producing mostly turf talent, but Waki Kitten wanted no part of the wet Oklahoma grass in her first start.  Shipped right here to Kansas and placed on the main track, she tucked in behind the leaders and drew off to win with a much more respectable 64.  The first daughter of willing Miswaki mare Waki Miss, she again gets the services of B. Clark, who treated her so well last time out.

And she shares her odds with a daughter of another first-year sire and El Prado son.  That’s Wild Artie, by Artie Schiller, who already has a stakes winner in Arcangelo.  She’s out of a Wild Again mare and like Waki Kitten, produced her winning effort with a stalking trip.  The speed figure there was a little slow compared to these (a 59), but they’re two-year-olds, early in the year, and who knows what will happen next.

Tropical Trophy is another who made her debut on the grass, but with better results than Waki Kitten.  The stocky brown filly led all the way around, finishing a length clear of a horse who would come back to win her next start.  She was then shipped to Dubai to try her hand on the dirt and again showed early speed and again, won.  The margin of victory was just a nose and the speed rating was a 71.  The Tropical Storm daughter is out of World Cup Trophy, a stakes-placed Bahri mare whose first foal (by Erewhon) is also a winner.

Lousiana-bred Indy Lion hails from Graywolf Stables as is the first foal of A.P. Nasty, their winning Synastry mare.  By Lion Tamer, she made her first start going five furlongs in Minnesota and raced midpack before pulling out to win.  Her speed rating there was a solid 67 and I can’t imagine they’d run her back just two weeks later if she wasn’t kicking down the barn, but H. Blades has only won one race thus far this year.

Way out on the outside is Frozen In May, another daughter of Roses In May, this time out of Forwarning, a winning Touch Gold mare.  She got a good look at Storm The Skies’ tail in her first race, where she finished second to that one.  Last time out, she tackled a rare wet turf course in Dubai and struggled, finishing ninth.  So she remains a maiden going into this race and while stranger things have happened with two-year-olds, it seems like a tough spot.

And rounding out our field is Wild Land Cat, a pretty dark grey daughter of Ministers Wild Cat, out of a winning Cozzene mare who produced her only other foal (a winner by A.P. Indy) seven years ago.  Wild Land Cat was a speed-flashing winner in her first start, over the Texas course, and then flopped on the turf in stakes company last out.  The Unusual Circumstances returns her to her preferred dirt surface and other than that, well, we’ll just have to see.