Big Race Preview 3217

Four big grade ones on tap this week headlined by Ermington Pegasus running in the Maryland Special. Rapid Grey stands out in the Keg of Guinness and there is a very competitive field of turf sprinters set to run in Japan. The long distance runners have a race with an interesting mix of entries.

Race: 3217.0815 Maryland Special Handicap – Grade I – $750,000
Track: Maryland
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and three sixteenths on the Dirt

The hottest horse in the sim Ermington Pegasus takes to the track after his super impressive win last time out in the Sand Castle Classic. No one has been within two lengths of him since he starter this recent four race win streak. He is the favorite but that has not scared away the competition.

Ermington is a middle of the pack to back of the pack closer that will be full of run in the stretch. This will be his first race since the Sand Castle so he has rested a few more weeks unlike many of his competitors who had a race in between. He gets the opportunity to prove that being ranked number one by Mike and Kingab is indeed not a jinx.

Alina Dancer skipped the Sand Castle event and looks to pose the most danger to Ermington Pegasus. He prepped for this one going a mile and a half last time out and with the cut back in distance he could be primed for a huge effort. He ran second to Ermington two races back and gets another shot here.

Solar Song is the reigning Breeder’s Bowl Classic winner. He finished well back in his Sand Castle effort but rebounded last time out in a little bit longer race. He dropped back in class but won with a solid speed figure. This is the spot of his worst race from last year so not only is he looking to take down the new kid on the block but he is looking to run a better race than he did last year. He is a closer and while he is a veteran he probably still has a race or two under his belt still.

New Found Cyclone won the Middle Jewel last year over this track and at this distance. He has locked horns with Ermington Pegasus ever since. He ran third behind Ermington at the Sand Castle and followed that up with a second place effort in a G2. He is capable of running fast enough to win this and might be a good play with history over this track.

Race: 3217.5913 Keg of Guinness- Grade I – $500,000
Track: Ireland
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf

One of the best mile and a quarter turf runners Rapid Grey leads this field as a favorite. Rapid Grey has won four races in a row two of those were big speed figures at this distance. In fact in just three starts at this distance he has posted 111, 112 and 113 speed figures. He looks much the best on paper. He is a deep closer and will be flying late the only question here seems to be by how many lengths will Rapid Grey win?

Tee Jay;s Great has been pretty good at this distance. In ten races he has six wins and has posted some very nice speed figures. His best speed figures of 108 though are close but not quite as good as the favorite. Tee Jay’s Great ran third in the Breeder’s Bowl Mile this past year and is a grade one winner so the class is there. He is a stalker type so he will have the jump on the favorite and with a top effort he should be part of the mix.

Jumpin Java is coming off a strong performance against one of the top long distance runners. He stalked and nearly wore down the winner only losing by three quarters of a length. He ran a solid speed figure and has a 110 speed figure in the recent past so he is capable of the running fast enough to win this. He steps back a bit in distance and that could be a positive for him. He should be stalking and in with a good shot.

If you are looking for a horse that has a pretty good shot of running underneath at a nice price take a look at Rosenthal. He has hit the board in a couple of graded races at this distance running solid speed figures. He comes in off a win at the listed level at a little longer distance with another solid speed figure. He has the ability to set the pace but recently has been stalking. He only has nineteen career races so there is good reason to think he can still improve or if one of the top three falter he could step up

Race: 3217.5015 Rising Sun Spring Cup – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track: Japan
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: Seven furlongs on the Turf

The top turf sprinters have assembled with Two Storms being named the morning line favorite. This is the kind of field in which you can make a case for nearly every runner entered. Two Storms is a long sprint specialist however in this deep field of multiple grade one winners our favorite here has yet to win a grade one. Still he is running fast speed figures capable of winning this race. He has shown the ability to succeed with different styles of on the pace or stalking. With the outside post he will need a lot of racing luck to win against this bunch.

Look out General’s Chariot has an inside post. If you look at the General’s most recent starts you sort of get the impression he might have lost a step or is appearing to slow down. That is possible but he drew way outside in his last two races, and over his career he has struggled with out side post positions. Now he is inside. The General should rebound and could rebound in a big way if he is on his game. His mid pack stalking style should give him every opportunity to grab another grade one win.

Night’s Desire could be one of the more dangerous runners entered in this race. He tried a mile last time out winning an allowance race and now drops back to a distance where he has run big speed figures. He is in great form right now having won three of his last four. The angle of cutting back in distance could mean he is primed for a top performance.

The Seeker is a good long shot play here. He is not as established at this little longer sprint distance however he does have several races in routes where he ran competitively although not at this level. He is a speed horse and this field does appear to have several speed types. The Seeker is versatile though and could easily be in a stalking position. Last time out he did not fire but if he bounces back he has a real change here.  

Race: 3217.5314 South Australian Cup – Grade I – $400,000
Track: Victoria
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: Two miles on the Dirt

After last week’s grade one at this distance and surface this race does not draw a full field. Just ten runners are entered with co favorites Credit Given and Wonderboy Cougar. Credit Given absolutely exploded in his last race at fourteen furlongs where he ran an amazing 110 speed figure. Credit Given might just be the best long distance dirt runner in the sim taking a race on the Breeder’s Bowl under card and he has won five of his last seven races. He is a deep closer that falls way off the early pace. He normally closes very strong most times a looks like he will be very tough to beat.

Wonderboy Cougar is really stretching out and looks very vulnerable at this distance. His best distance has been a mile and a quarter. In his few tries past a mile and a half he has not performed at a high level. He has been very average and would need for this race to be run slower or he would really have to show us a new dimension.

Kalija is one of the more interesting runners here. He is very lightly raced with just seven starts but he has already shown a good deal of speed at longer distances. He is bred to love distance and has won his last two pretty impressively. He seems the most likely runner to give Credit Given trouble. He is also a closer so will be coming from well of the pace.