GR Simster’s Run For the Roses
GR SIMSTERS Run for the Roses
It is once again time for the GR Simsters Residency Triple Crown. The First Jewel in the Residency Triple Crown is this week’s Run for the Roses. Let’s take a look at the race participants.
Race 3210.0216
1. Sorgatani – This mare out of Empire Maker passed on the Simsters Oaks to race against the boys in this one. Last race out was on the grass (which her pedigree suggests she would like) but thus far her best has been on dirt. Love that she will have no problem with the distance as she is bred to go all day and has shown ability at 9.5f. Will need to run a career best to finish ITM here.
2. Sadness Reigns – Potential super colt out of KingMambo was lights out in his debut and uses that lone career start as a prep for his Derby bid. Won by an impressive 5 ½ lengths with a speed figure of 84 but cannot recommend against more seasoned horses but may fill out exotics.
3. Ancestral Vision – This colt out of Smarty Jones hopes to follow in his fathers footsteps and win a Derby. Failed to break his maiden as a two year old but has improved nicely since then in winning 3 of 4 races as a three year old. Hunch he runs a big one and likely will have a win bet on his nose in this one.
4. Quandry – Has never finished out of the money in his 5 career starts but makes a big jump in class from allowance to Graded races in this one. I like the 4X4 Seattle Slew representation in his pedigree and his speed figured put him in the mix to finish in the money.
5. Mr. Mistoffelees – Son of Storm Cat is super talented and has already amassed over 400k in lifetime earnings making him among the most distinguished in this field. This two-year old Simsters Juvenile champion has continued to improve as a three year old making him very dangerous on Derby day. Going off as a co 5-1 favorite and is worthy of that designation.
6. Road Trip USA – This son of Aptitude was a recent 10k claimer and his owner (me) is Drunk On Mint Juleps to enter this one against this field. Has the potential to be a decent allowance grade horse but has yet to manage even an allowance level win and will likely get smoked in this one.
7. Black Blazer – Son of Pine Bluff ran a smoker his last out as he put up a monstrous 102 speed figure (a 6 pt improvement over his lifetime best) in the G1 California Derby prep race. May be do for a bounce back but a clear contender based on the quality of his G1 effort.
8. A Vow To Be A Slew – Out of underused sire Broken Vow this 3X4 Mr. Prospector cross is looking to continue his winning ways off of his 3/31 Allowance victory. Only has 3 races this year and hasn’t raced since late March so should be fresh but would have liked to have seen another prep race squeezed in this year.
9. Spitfire MK 1 – Love this Tiznow colt who has shown ability at two (Stakes and a Grade 2 win) and three (a just miss in the G3 Smallville Cup). Has tactical speed and should avoid traffic problems and I expect him to run a career best speed figure in a solid effort on Derby Day.
10. Bottled Oil – Sired in Japan out of Boston Harbor this colt has won multiple allowance races but is a notch below the best in this race and will struggle to compete.
11. Zainy – Awesome Again X Fusaichi Pegasus is an intriguing combination and this colt showed major improvement his last time out in just missing in a sprint allowance level race. Should have no problem with the Derby distance and has shown ability at 9 furlongs but has too much to do in just his 6th lifetime race.
12. Ghost Blade – You know you will get made fun of growing up in the paddock when your mom’s name is Pickled Riddle but that hasn’t stopped this Danzig Connection colt from making it to the GR Simster’s Derby. This colt has solid early speed and his best chance is to steal the race if no one challenges him early.
13. ITDOESNTMATTER – Son of Rock Slide has yet to break his maiden and can’t see him breaking through against such a tough field in this one. Glad to know I wasn’t the only training who dipped into the juleps early.
14. GOGO GIZMO – I love to see non-standard sires in pedigrees and this colt by Midas Eyes definitely fits that bill. I give this horse points as the most creatively bred horse in the field and I love his 5X5 Northern Dancer sire side cross. Ran a monster race in winning the G3 Thousand Island Stakes (96 speed figure) but has regressed since then and failed to make the Bluegrass field. Should improve against this field but will need to regain his 2/3/07 form to wear the Roses.
Prediction:
Two year old champ Mr. Mistoffelees makes good and wins an impressive Juvenile/Derby double in the Simster’s Classics. Ancestral Vision runs a career best speed figure to finish 2nd and Black Blazer regresses slightly off of his California Derby form but still has enough to finish 3rd with a nice closing kick.