Big Race Preview 3210

There are eleven grade one races this Saturday. I would have loved to have covered them all but eight was about the max number of races I could cover. There are three other grade I races in Kentucky this week I did not cover. One race carded for Horseshoe Bay, and two, two mile races one on dirt and one on turf.

It is a huge week the biggest week in fact for three year old runners in the sim. We have top races on dirt and turf for both the colts and the fillies. There is a great field of older fillies and mare turf runners this week, and one of the more prestigious sprints in the sim. This week you better make sure you grab your beverage of choice and better grab a snack or two to eat while watching races on the Sim’s Second Biggest Race Day!

Race: 3210.0315 Bluegrass Derby – Grade I – $2,000,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Dirt

In a twenty horse field it is hard to do this race justice in a short format. Fortunately there are some great in depth articles for this race so I will only touch on a couple of runners here and in the Oaks. In the Derby I think all things start with the undefeated colt Passing Stone.

Passing Stone is a perfect five for five with just one race as a two year old. He cleared a couple of allowance conditions, took down a listed stakes field and earned his way here by winning the Arkansas Juvenile a Derby Lock race. Under last year’s rules Passing Stone would not have made this field. There are three key factors I think that make him the top contender. One he has a good stamina pedigree and will have no problem with the distance. Two, he has a great running style that should put him just off the speed here that will not get the mile and a quarter. Three he has a top speed figure and should improve making him the horse to beat in my opinion although he may be over looked by others.

Achaemenes is from the barn of Tbgifted. Anyone familiar with TB’s training style has to know it is killing him to only have this horse running every four to five weeks in his recent starts. Yet here he is in the big dance with one of the strongest closers in the field. Achaemenes will be way back early but do not worry he is going to close some ground and could benefit, along with other closers, from several speed horses pushing the pace.

Awesome Force is the only runner under 10/1 on the morning line making him the favorite. He took a very traditional route to the Bluegrass. He had three prep races as a three year old running high speed figures each time winning two and finishing second in the other. Based on speed figures he has to be the top choice. He too will be coming from off the pace. He will likely be near the back but could be more towards mid pack. If he gets a clear lane expect him to be there at the top of the stretch.

Degoldenstorm looks to be the first Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile winner with a real shot at capturing that elusive double. He did not slow down after taking the Breeder’s Bowl winning his first two races as a three year old with impressive speed figures. He showed he can come from off the pace. He has two negatives though, his last race was a bit of a clunker finishing fifth in the Florida Derby and he may not be capable of getting the distance as his previous race was his only race past a mile and a sixteenth.

Gramid is a breeder’s dream come true. A solid pedigree but a cheap or shall we say affordable set of sires. He has a pair of graded victories as a three year old his last was in the Chicago Derby. He gets saddled with the outside post though. Hopefully the Canadian bred will run well on Saturday.

Race: 3210.0314 Bluegrass Oaks – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt

Twenty ladies hit the gates with Spooky Wildcat the morning line favorite. Spooky has a couple of one hundred plus speed figures already including her last time out running second in Arkansas. You have to really like her stalking running style and her inside post could help her cause with her running style. She has a great pedigree and looks like a solid favorite.

You have to like the looks of Pravada. She does not seem to have that flash about her. She got her first grade one win last time out with a nose victory in the Lool Oaks. She does not have that one hundred plus speed figure yet but a pair of ninety-eights and steady performances each time out give her the look of a runner about to run a big one. She comes from off the pace and is from the same connections that won the Bluegrass Derby last year.

You’re a Towel is a legit contender and the 15/1 morning line is misleading. She prepped for her run here on the turf where she was out run. The odds makers are taking that into account too much. On dirt she looks great with a pair of grade two wins prior to her try on the turf. The switch from turf to dirt could help her move forward and she is one that has posted a one hundred plus speed figure.

We go to the far outside post for Sand inDubai. Sand of Dubai is a late bloomer that has really taken a big step forward in her last two races. She smoked a listed stakes field and then stepped right up to win a grade two. The outside post hurts but maybe she has the speed to get her into good position in the early stages to be a factor.

Race: 3210.4914 The 2000 Guineas – Grade I – $350,000
Track: Newmarket
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

One horse Mambo Wildcat. He has been very dominate at the middle distances as a two year old and all spring. He took a shot at a mile and a half last time out and that just looks to be a bit too long for him. Prior to that no horse has been within two lengths of him all spring. He has two big one hundred plus speed figures and looks much the best on paper.

You are going to have to respect Lifeforce on the lead here. There is not a bunch of speed here and there is a very good likely hood that Lifeforce will be on the lead alone. Last time out he went gate to wire in a grade three at mile earning a 104-speed figure. He will be very dangerous on the lead and could threaten the favorite.

Angry Alex is a deep closer that recently discovered he likes the turf. He showed dramatic improvement when switching to the turf and in three races he has won two and just missed in another. His speed figures have been good so he should be closing in the late stages of this race but with two good runners that will be near the front he has his work cut out for him.

The Fast Layne is an interesting runner. He ran an awesome race back in February posting a 106-speed figure while winning a grade three at a mile. He closed from a long way back in that race then took almost two months off before prepping in a listed sprint where he ran third never threatening. He probably needed that race and with that one under his belt he could be ready to contend.

Race: 3210.4915 The 1000 Guineas – Grade I – $250,000
Track: Newmarket
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

A full field of very evenly matched fillies are set to run a race that looks like a blanket photo finish in the making. Torch the Flame is a runner that has made her way this spring in sprints. She ran a couple of routes as a two year old but seemed to finish a little flat although her speed figures were ok. She was moved back to sprints and it was not until her last race out that she moved out to a mile again and she responded with a length and a half win in a grade two race. She is well bred from a barn that wins a lot and her stalking running style should keep her in the mix the entire race.

Nothin’ to Lose is the dangerous speed in the race. She has won three races in a row her last was most impressive. In a grade three at a mile she set the pace and never looked back earning a 101 speed figure while winning by two lengths. She like the favorite has had most of her success to this point in sprints but looks very capable of wiring this field. She runs another like she did last time out she will win this race.

Neuschwanstein has to be respected here. Her speed figures are right there with most of the runners in this race and she has only lost one time in eight career races. She seems to be one of those runners that does what it takes each time out to win. She will probably be mid pack early and should give a good account of herself.

Race: 3210.5314 Adelaide Oaks – Grade I – $400,000
Track: Victoria
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

We have co favorites in the Oaks with Kneel Before Zod and Tupungato. Kneel Before Zod won impressively last time out earning a ninety-eight speed figure. The possible downside to that is that the big jump in speed figure came when she cut back in distance. Her last was at a mile and a sixteenth and she seemed to kick home a lot better in the shorter distance. She closed well at a little longer distances but not well enough to catch the winners in those races. She faces some tough front runners so her deep closing style might cost her a bit.

Tupungato was horrible last time out. She finished thirteenth ten lengths behind the winner and that is not exactly the way you want to prep for this race. Before that she was in a longer race sitting just off the early pace. She then took control at the top of the stretch winning by three lengths earning a ninety-seven speed figure. She will be near the pace and will have the first jump on the pace horses if the last did not sour her.

Kansialari has run at a longer distance already which most of her competition have not. She did well there last time out setting the pace before tiring a bit late holding on to third. She earned a ninety five speed figure in that effort. She should once again be able to get the lead and if she can repeat her last race she may have a chance against this group.

Baradruj is a bit of a sleeper in here. She has a pedigree that screams a mile and a half. Her dam was more of a sprinter but had a pedigree with solid stamina. In her last four races she has won three times all in allowance company. Last time out was at a mile and three eighths where she stalked a pounced for a win earning a ninety speed figure. She looks like she can improve if she can handle the class jump. 

Race: 3210.5313 Adelaide Derby – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Victoria
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

We have co favorites in this race with All Right and Exclusive Habitat. All Right prepped for this race pretty impressively. He ran in a listed stakes at a mile and three eighths. He stalked the early pace took control and romped to a two and a quarter length win. He earned a big ninety-nine speed figure for that effort. He is well rested for this race so if that last race was an indication he is maturing at the right time of year he should be a handful this weekend.

Exclusive Habitat is well bred, lightly raced and has already run a one hundred plus speed figure. In only five career races he is a listed stakes winner and ran second last time out in a grade one. He has some speed and will be stepping out in distance from his last races. He has been pushing or setting the pace in most of his starts and with the stretch out you really almost expect him to be on the lead here. He looks to have the pedigree for the distance and he has shown he has class so keep an eye on this guy.

Bagored ran behind Exclusive Habitat last time out. He earned a one hundred speed figure in that third place effort. He is a come from behind horse so does have his work cut out for him having to run down the favorites. The distance will be no problem for him and he looks like a runner that should get better with distance.

Otto Nights does not have a mile and a half pedigree yet here he is after a grade three win at a mile and three eighths. His pedigree screams miler but that does not seem to matter to him. He has been stalking the early pace and moving forward in every race from sprint to his last at a long distance. He will find himself in the thick of things early with the favorites and if he can continue to move forward he has a real shot at winning this.  

Race: 3210.5513 Virgin Mary Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Queensland
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf

Just an eleven horse field for older fillies and mares on the turf this week lead by the impressive Northern Pulp. This is a very deep field for the ladies with several stars and excellent race horses entered. Northern Pulp has won eleven of thirteen starts on the turf and done it very quietly. Despite the success and big speed figures it has taken her eighteen starts to make an appearance in a grade one race. Her last two were graded stakes wins. She moves out in distance a bit but as long as she runs with in herself she should win this race.

The speedster Empire Reef is the second favorite going into this race. She has been good on both surfaces in her career and her last turf races were just a few races back. She had a gate to wire win in a grade two at this distance earning a one hundred six speed figure. Her last couple have been on the dirt she looks to be in good form so she should put up a top effort and could be tough to catch.

A Perfect Sunday is already a grade one winner at this distance. She won the Flower Pot stakes last fall and is undefeated this year with three wins from three starts. She can run that big speed figure on you like she did last time out where she earned a one hundred and nine speed figure. She is a middle of the pack runner that closes well nearly every time out. She looks to be putting together quite a year, now all she has to do is know out the new kid on the block.

Cold Storage was nearly unbeatable last year. She won at the Breeder’s Bowl Turf Distaff in very impressive fashion. She ran hard from the gates established a big lead and never looked back winning by more than two lengths. Since then she has three losses of more than ten lengths. She has not gotten to the lead in her recent races and if Empire Reef gets the lead here she will likely fade badly again. She has to hope she gets a good jump out of the gates, gets the lead and will be tough on the lead like last year. 

Race: 3210.0415 Gary Carter Handicap – Grade I – $400,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: Seven furlongs on the Dirt

Ab Fab and Diabolical Prince are co favorites in one of the most prestigious long sprints. Ab Fab is coming off a grade one win that saw him win by an impressive two and a half lengths. He stalked the pace there closer to the pace than he usually runs and kept going in the stretch. He is the top ranked sprinter by stakes points, and loves to sprint short or long. His stalk from off the pace running style should keep him in the race no matter what.

Diabolical Prince could be labeled as a seven furlong specialist. He is a veteran getting ready for his thirty-third career start. His last have been good with three wins from his last four starts all at this distance. He used a couple of allowance races to regain some form then won a pair of listed stakes with top speed figures and that has set him up for a big chance in the Gary Carter. He is a stalker type and should be forwardly placed and ready for a big run.