Bluegrass Oaks: Posts 11-15

Drawing post positions 11 though 15 in the Bluegrass Oaks:

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11.    Sisson’s Chant (War Chant x Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky II) was, through her first seven races, so dominant in the division, there was speculation she might forego this race in order to take on the boys in the Derby.  Despite some recent setbacks, she remains an obvious contender.

Racing History: 

1. She broke her maiden at first asking in early April against a nine horse field included another future stakes winner.
2. She faded to second as the 7-5 favorite in a listed stakes.
3. At 8-5, she began a five race win streak, stalking her way to a listed win in June.
4. She beat a full field that included two other Oaks runners while winning the Grade I Hoserhead Juvenile.
5. Beat boys for the first time in a nonrestricted allowance.
6. In November she picked up her second Grade I win in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly in convincing fashion.
7. Tried the boys again and again beat them in the Grade I Eruption.
8. Bid but hung to a third in the Grade I Sweet Nanette. 
9. Tried the boys for the third time in the Derby lock All Saints and finished a more than respectable third. The winner, El Industrial, appeared on his way to probable Derby favoritism.
10. Three weeks ago she threw in her only clunker – an uninspiring ninth in the Grade I lool Oaks.

Sim Breeding:

War Chant has produced 64 Sim stakeswinners and 12 graded winners.  Aside from Sisson’s Chant, Eclipse Award winner Call of the Wild II was his greatest offspring earning over $9 million.

Sisson’s Chant was bred from scratch.

Connections:

Levers is a 12% trainer from the Binzaman Stables.  Levers also trains stakeswinners Leica Bullet and Staying On.  The Binzaman Stables are having a phenomenal year with three year old fillies, having two contenders:  Sisson’s Thief join Sisson’s Chant to give them two fillies in the race.

Jockey B F Abman, a young jockey with a 22% win rate is having an even better 2007, winning 26% of his races and finishing in the money 60% of the time.

Why she will win:

Her dominance over the three year old filly crop is astounding: she is ranked number one at all three dirt distances.  She has 36 more stakes points than the number two filly and more than twice the points of number three.  She is averaging $200,000 in earnings per race.  She exits the lool Stakes, from whence have come four of the last six Oaks winners and the place filly the other two years.  Didn’t win?  No problem, none of the six lool Oaks fillies just mentioned won the lool, and the barn had no incentive last time to do anything but give her a tune-up.

Why she won’t win:

She hasn’t won in three races and really had no excuse last time.

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12.    Ghostly Breeze (Ghostzapper x Pine Bluff x Meadowlake) has six wins in her eight starts and a six weeks freshening.  She is one of a very small group of fillies who could claim, prior to a few weeks ago, that she had beaten Sissin’s Chant.

Racing History:

1. Broke her maiden against a full field at first asking in mid-May.
2. Beat future Graded winner Koko Taylor while winning an allowance.
3. At 5-2, ran her record to three of three in a listed stakes.
4. In October, she nosed her way to a Grade II win in the Walnut Tree.
5. Did not show much in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly.
6. Beat the boys in an allowance.
7. Her finest race: the win in the tough Grade I Sweet Nanette in February.
8. Rally came up short in Grade III We Get Signal.  But did beat Sisson’s Thief.

Sim Breeding:

Ghostzapper, for two years, has been one of the most in-demand sires around. To date, he has two graded stakes winners.  The other one, Spooky Wildcat, is also in this race.

Ghostly Breeze is from the Sim-mare Meadow Breeze (Pine Bluff x Meadowlake x Fappiano).  She was a Grade III winner, and both of her offspring are Graded winners.

Connections:

You may have heard of this stable.  The Lennbrenner Empire has raced 7500 times and maintained a 19% win rate in all of its barns.  Some of that winning percentage is due to its liberal sponsorship of races, but a lot has to do with an opportunistic style. The stable is quick to obtain and breed well-bred horses.  In a Sim where some skin is thin and rivalries abound, even Forum threads entitled “Why I hate Lenny” contain no hate for this player.  Lenny may soon have to change his name to Todd Pletcher.  Three fillies in the race come from the Empire: Ghostly Breeze, Coldstone, and Braddock.

Jockey W McClendon is winning at a 29% rate this year.

Why she will win:

The number three rated filly, she dispelled any class questions with her Sweet Nanette win.  Sisson’s Chant seemed to be at the top of her game in that race, and this one dispatched her easily. 

Why she won’t win:

13.    Coldstone (Dixieland Band x Blushing Groom x Pleasant Colony), one of the longer shots, does have a graded route win and a stalking style.

Racing History:

1. Third in an early April debut.
2. Second in late May at the same track
3. Third time’s a charm in a late July race, her third in Germany.
4. Ran second against the boys in a September listed stakes.
5. Her best race: A Grade II Camlaw win.  The field contained one other future graded stakes winner.
6. Nearly the median filly in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly.
7. Third in a listed stakes. Beat one stakes winner.
8. Faded to tenth in the tough Grade I California Oaks.
9. Second in a small but good listed field.

Sim Breeding:

Dixieland Band has produced almost 11% stakes winners in the Sim.  His best offspring over the past five years was the millionaire mare Dixielandfan, whose daughter was also a stakeswinner.

Coldstone was bred from scratch.

Connections:

Coldstone is out of the Lennbrenner Empire.  See Ghostly Breeze’s comments.

Fourth year jockey J Caves, a 19% lifetime jockey is winning at 21% this year.

Why she will win:

Excellent connections and a pesky running style that frequently sticks around for some sort of check

Why she won’t win:

She hasn’t won a race in almost seven months and has yet to post a speed figure that surpasses 90, when several here have hit 100.

14.    Dixie Burning (Dixie Union x Aptitude x Miswaki) returns to face her own gender after two races against the boys.  She’s been first or second three times in her six dirt routes against fillies.

 Racing History:

1. A June Debut was a second to an eventual stakes winner.
2. Stalked to a win in her second start.
3. Second in a decent listed stakes.
4. Won a listed stakes against boys.
5. Stalking second in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly qualifies as her finest achievement.
6. Close 5^th in the Grade I Movieland Starlet
7. Decent second in the Grade III Santa Jezebel.
8. Even fifth in Grade II Davola Dane South
9. Not great, but still front half of Grade II Louisiana Oaks.
10. Fourth in a tight finish against boys in a listed stakes.
11. Front half of a Derby lock race against males.

Sim Breeding:

In the past five years, Dixie Union has produced only one multiple graded stakes winner: the millionaire I Am Scheming.  Dixie Burning is by far his best from the 2006 crop.

Dixie Burning is out of the Sim-mare Apt to Burn.  Her two half-brothers are, respectively, without a win and without a start.

Connections:

Trainer Okiedokie is an 11% trainer from the Red Dirt Runners Stables, better known as the home to OKDavid.  Okiedokie also trains the stakes winner Geo Flirt and the ten time winner Saint Haunted. 

Veteran jockey D Fendlay Jr. always gives his mounts their best chance.

Why she will win:

Her form is much better than it looks.  She had no business trying the boys last time, yet still beat most of them.  Extrapolate the improvement she likely would have shown the last two races had they been against her own sex, and she’d look much better. 

Why she won’t win:

She hasn’t been in the money in her last four races and hasn’t won a race since last September.

15.    Katherineofaragon (High Yield x Kingmambo x Ferdinand) is a dangerous longshot.  The long odds are due mostly to her race two starts ago when she got hurt.  If her last start served its purpose of getting her ready, there might be an $84 win bet ready to cash.

Racing History:

1. Second in an early March maiden race where another future stakeswinner placed third.
2. Beat a stakeswinner to break her maiden.
3. Third in an allowance in late May.
4. Second in the Grade III Butterfly Futurity.  The winner, Battle Cruiser, is here today.
5. Second in the Hoserhead to Sisson’s Chant.
6. A win in the Grade I Getaway where she beat three other Graded winners.
7. A fifth in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly.
8. A route win in the Grade I Movieland Starlet.
9. In February, she came back injured in the Grade III Backward Gal.
10. Split the field in her prep for this race, the Grade I lool Oaks.

Sim Breeding:

High Yield has produced stakeswinners at an impressive 10% rate.  High Yield’s most accomplished runner was High Otto, a multiple graded stakes winner and earner of $2 million.

Katherineofaragon is out of the game dam King of Spain II.  Her older brother is also a stakeswinner.

Connections:

Traineer Gipper7 is a 16% trainer.  An associated stable trains the multiple stakes winning King of the Slews.

Veteran jockey N Lawton is winning over 24% of his races this year, and has been in the money in 57% of his starts.

Why she will win:

She looked to be rapidly improving just as she ended her two-year-old campaign with the Movieland Starlet win before her debacle in the Backward Gal.  The long odds are purely due to the miniscule speed figure she earned there as her jockey eased to the finish.  The lool Oaks has been the premier prep race for this, and any finish in that race seems to be as good as any other in preparing for a win here.  If she regains her form and has matured a typical amount from her December race, she could be an upset special.

Why she won’t win:

Two-year-old racing and three-year-old racing are entirely different.  She hasn’t shown anything this year.