Montana’s Latonia Special GIII
Montana’s Latonia Special G III
By Clancy
Race ID 3210.7215
This is the 7th running of the Latonia Special in Montana, a 7-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies and mares with a $125,000 purse. The race record is 1:22 1/5 that was recently equaled last year. The average speed number for the winner over the last 6 runnings is a 102. The race will have a full field of 14 and a great day for racing with firm turf.
Mean Charlene(TX) odds 10-1, will break from PP 1. A former 35k claimer, trainer cjjonesz has managed 2 second place stakes finishes with this filly. The 7- furlong distance suits, but her best speed rating of 90 may not be enough.
Blazer(KY) odds 9-1 goes from PP 2. this filly has been adroitly trained by pillyfarm to 15 straight in the money finishes on turf, including 12 stakes races with 4 wins. Has run from the front and back to win but maybe best at slightly shorter distance. Montana’s best jockey P Wright will try to get more than her previous best 91 speed rating.
Seven Come Eleven(KY) odds 11-1, is in PP 3. Has finished 9 times out of 10 outings in the money for trainer fatattack2, who recently moved the filly from dirt to turf and last time out, and was rewarded with a stakes win at 7F on turf. Speed ratings over the last 3 turf races point toward a possible break out, and perhaps a good value bet in this race.
King Slew’s Crown(KY) odds 19-1, breaks from PP 4. A little over her head here with no money finishes in stakes races. She has a best speed rating of 84 and seems best suited to 5.5 to 6.5 F. May try to finish strong from the back of the pack, but the odds maybe generous for the chloedawg trainee.
Glen of Aherlow(KY) odds 7-1, out of PP 5. In 7 lifetime races she has 7 in the money finishes for trainer borrow1. No stakes wins but a creditable 3rd in a G2 last time out. Likes to run from the front she will be running at what looks like a good distance. Shown speed ratings of 90-91 at 8F.
La Guardita(KY) odds 18-1, breaks from PP 6. Winner of two stakes races for trainer usoz, she likes the 7F distance. However best speed rating is an 87 last time out in an Allowance. Likes to run from the front, but will have to rise to the competition here.
Fax at Dawn(KY) odds 8-1, leaves from PP 7. Winner of 3 stakes races has been going longer distances recently with a 4th in an 8F G3 last time out. Trainer paydirt41 shortens the distance, which may suit this filly better. A 92-93 speed rating at longer distance may jump at 7F.
Big Nosed Kate(KY) odds 11-1, out of PP 8. Although in the money in 6 of 8 stakes races and winner of 2 may have the track’s worst jockey on board. Trainer sipe is hoping for an improvement over last time out and a last place finish with a 78 speed rating. Showed 91-92 just previously.
Eye of the World(IRE) odds 7-1, comes out of PP 9. This filly has won 4 stakes including a G3, with 8 of 9 finishes in the money. Finishing strong from the back, trainer shamran7 has the track’s second best jockey J Biagi on board for what looks like a strong ride. Had a 95 speed rating last time out at 7.5F. Only problem maybe that she could run out of track before taking the lead.
Firsttime(NM) odds 6-1, breaking for PP 10. Trainer lookout has worked this filly into finishing in the money in all 8 races on turf including 1 stakes win. Consistently hits a 93 speed rating, this filly will likely break with the leaders and run from the front. This is one of one 6 foals from Slew’s Pot of Gold a bargin sire who might be due a few more breedings.
Denizens(IRE) odds 8-1, out of PP 11. Tends to come from the back and has 2 wins in 6.5F stakes races. Trainer seedly2 has this filly going longer than her last but she has been showing improved speed with a 94 last time out.
Jo’s Spanish Gold(KY) odds 11-1, in PP 12. Winner of 4 stakes, but off the pace in 2 G1’s, has the best speed number in the field with a 96 in a 7.5F. After trainer rms challenged this filly at distance and with G1 competition she may be primed to run well here with the circuit’s 3rd best jockey D Pickel. Another good value bet.
Creoliner(FL) odds 32-1, from PP 13. Trainer seedly2 has found this filly’s best surface but it will be her first stakes race. Never tried at this distance, and while showing better speed ratings, she is still well off the field with a high of 82. Maybe involved in race strategy with seedly2’s other entry Denizens(IRE).
Skyjacker(AUS) odds 10-1, breaks out of PP 14. Won a 7F stakes last time out. Shown she can go the distance with an improving speed numbers now hitting 93. Looks like she closes well for trainer 911.
With only a few horses with little chance, this race is fairly open with at least 7-9 horses having a good shot. The odds reflect this but a couple of good 11-1 value bets can be found in Seven Come Eleven(KY) and Jo’s Spanish Gold(KY). If you couple these with Eye of the World(IRE) in a trifecta it may pay nicely. Blazer(KY), Fax at Dawn(KY), and Firsttime(NM) will all bear watching in what looks like a great race.