Prophetic Blade Special draw short field of four

Three year old fillies keep the spotlight here in Virginia this weekend in our feature race, the third annual running of the Prophetic Blade Special. The race will run over nine and a half furlongs of firm turf, and carries a $50000 purse. Last year’s running was won by Nymphet in a thriller over race favorite Peach Classic by a scant quarter length, to notch her one and only career stakes victory. With trainers focused on the big races in Kentucky, Newmarket and Victoria, this race drew a bare minimum four entries, all hungry for their first stakes win. Oddsmakers have chosen a 6/5 favorite from the group, with the rest of the entries falling between 2/1 and 9/2 odds. This race has historically been hard on the favorites, but with all the low odds here, it still won’t make great payouts at the betting windows.

PP 1) Iambe(IRE) Sired by Black Tie Affair(IRE), Trained by jefahl. Iambe(IRE) makes her tenth career start in this race. She has one prior stakes start, where she finished second. Her first nine career starts have netted her a record of 3-2-0-1-1, with a best speed of 88.2, duplicated in back to back wins early this year. Her last start was a stakes race at this distance on an off track in Rhode Island, where she gave up a lead late to finish second in a short field of four. She been on turf since her second start, and has been steadily improving with every race. She has responded quite well to the eight to ten furlong range, and the distance itself shouldn’t be a problem for her. She favors a stalker’s break from the gate, generally sitting just off the lead, but she isn’t afraid of an early lead if it is handed to her. That shouldn’t be the case here with good early speed sitting to her outside. Her sweet spot for a close is about a length off the pace at the half. The way she has been improving, this could be her day.

PP 2) Bar Hunter(KY) Sired by Anabaa, Trained by zabeel. Bar Hunter(KY) makes her twelfth career appearance here. She has three stakes starts with one second and one third to show for it. Over the course of her first eleven starts, she has run to a 2-6-2-0-0 record, with a best speed of 87.3, earned two starts back. Her last run was a stakes at this distance on a tough Indiana track, where she seemed to stumble leaving the gate and was never able to recover, finishing last in a field of eight. She has never been off grass, and both of her career victories have come at the distance she faces here. She is a deep closer, but her close has been a real rollercoaster, showing flashes of brilliance interpersed with dismal efforts where she never seemed to find her legs. This field is beautifully set up for a closer with good early speed in a duel on the front end. She seems to have a four race cycle and she is just past her low ebb here. To have a shot here, she is going to need to break her cycle and have the best race of her career in the bargain.

PP 3) Fly Higher(IRE) Sired by High Chaparral(IRE), Trained by zanthulus. Flyer Higher(IRE) enters her ninth career starts here as the odds on favorite in this field. She has four previous stakes starts, with a second, a third, and two fourths. She’s run to a record of 3-1-1-2-1 in her first eight starts, with a best speed of 95.1 earned two starts back. Her last run was a stakes at this distance in North Carolina, where she gave up a big cushion late to finish second in a short field of four. She has made all eight prior starts on turf, and has been routing since her third start. All three wins, as well as her best speed have come in shorter races, and her best run seems to be eight furlongs. She did well at this distance last out though, and her speed was still one of the best in this field. She is a fast starter, and doesn’t work well without at least a piece of the early lead. She’ll have some pressure early, but shouldn’t have a problem getting the early lead she wants. The biggest question for her is if she will be able to hang on to it at this distance. If she gets a big enough cushion, she should live up to her odds here.

PP 4) Buckeye Beauty(KY) Sired by Action This Day, Trained by lbailey. Buckeye Beauty(KY) takes the gate for the eighth career time here. Six of her seven starts have been at stakes level and she has finished in the money four times. She brings a record of 1-1-1-2-0 to the race here, with a best speed of 87.4 earned in her second start of this season. Her last outing was a stakes at this distance in Indiana, where she finished fourth in a field of eight. She has made every start on turf, and her five starts this season have all been at route distance. She runs as a midpack to deep closer, but with the exception of her first two starts this year her close has been less than stellar to say the least. She could possibly benefit by a faster break, with her best closing success coming in around the four legth range at the half. This race is tailor made for a closer, but if she make her usual break, it’s quite possible she is going to find herself out too deep to be effective. She’ll need a stronger break and her best speed to be a factor here.