Betting The Bluegrass: Handicapping the 9th Annual Bluegrass Derby
So you want to bet the Bluegrass…Before we analyze each horse, lets take a look at a few factors and trends, along with the inevitable intangibles that can come into play before you decide on which horse to lay your money down in this years Bluegrass Derby.
Derby Factors & Trends in a Nutshell
Let’s start off with a look at the Dosage Index, and how much, if any, this ambiguous number comes into play when handicapping the Derby. Without going into a lot of detail, the Dosage Index measures the amount of speed versus the amount of stamina in a horse’s pedigree. Sprinters have a higher Dosage Index and Center of Distribution than routers, who tend to have a lower Dosage Index and Center of Distribution.
In real life racing the average Dosage Index and Center of Distribution for a 10 furlong distance is DI 2.55 CD .57. The average Dosage Index and Center of Distribution for a Kentucky Derby winner is DI 2.22 CD .47.
There are many who believe that the dosage index figures are now way out of whack, and have no bearing on a horse’s ability to go a distance. Many of the stamina stallions are as far back as the fifth generation and have little bearing on dosage any more. For purposes of handicapping the Bluegrass I will consider the Dosage Index since every Bluegrass Derby winner but one had a DI under 4.00.
Probably the most significant statistic when analyzing the Bluegrass is the fact that every Bluegrass Derby winner has won a race of nine furlongs or greater prior to entering the Bluegrass Derby starting gate. While this doesn’t necessarily mean you will get the added furlong it takes to win the Derby, it does show an ability to win a distance of ground.
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Equally as important, when comparing past Derby winners, is the amount of time between a horse’s last start and the Bluegrass. The last six Derby winners have had at least four weeks between their last race and the Bluegrass. This may be more significant today than it was in the first two years of sim racing history when wear and tear wasn’t as much a factor as it is in todays racing.
Noteworthy also, but to a lesser extent, is that seven of the eight Bluegrass winner’s have turned in a triple digit speed rating prior to winning the Bluegrass, however, this is a trend I can foresee happening with less frequency in the future with speed figures on the downward trend and trainers getting much sharper at training a horse to peak performance for a particular race.
After putting all these factors together, lets’ take a look at the Bluegrass field and see if we can come up with some key contenders.
Faves Front and Center
First off I want to try and beat the favorites. Generally a twenty-horse field will almost guarantee good odds no matter what horse you drop your $2.00 on. This is not to take away anything from Bluegrass standouts AWESOME FORCE or DEGOLDENSTORM, both of whom deserve all the consideration they get at the betting windows, but I’m looking for some value in my exotic wagers.
AWESOME FORCE fits almost every trend qualifier displayed in my Derby analysis. He is by far the horse to beat in the Derby by virtue of his dominating performance in the Florida Derby over the Eclipse winning DEGOLDENSTORM, whom he also defeated as a 2yo in the Movieland Futurity. Make no mistake about it, AWESOME FORCE is the best three year old in the world, and if I had half a brain I wouldn’t look any further than his number, but as those that know me might attest to, I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed, so I am going to try and beat AWESOME FORCE at the dosage level since there is no other way to penetrate his extraordinary ability. With a DI 3.00 and a CD of .78 I’m betting that the added furlong is beyond his ability. If I am wrong I will have been proven wrong by a horse that is well on his way to the Hall of Fame.
DEGOLDENSTORM is a wonderful racehorse with a resume that includes wins in seven of eleven starts including the Breeders Bowl Juvenile, and a 2006 Eclipse Award hanging on his owner’s mantelpiece. With a DI of 3.44 and a CD of .85, coupled with the fact that he hasn’t won a race past one mile and a sixteenth, I will reluctantly dismiss this great champion as my betting key, but feel compelled to use him in my wager. Call me crazy, but in a field with so many great runners, lets’ face it; eliminating any horse will be difficult.
Taking a look at kingab’s GLOBAL AFFAIR, we find a racehorse that has put it all together at just the right time. Making the most of his opportunity in the Wooden Indian, the Cat Thief colt locked himself a position in the Bluegrass by virtue of his all out New York effort. While this colt has all the trademarks of an outstanding racehorse, he has yet to tackle the top three year olds, and with a DI of 3.31 and a CD of .96, I have to point my $2.00 in another direction. Sorry Larry, prove me wrong.
If you want to talk about the model of consistency, you don’t have to look any further than GRAMID. The Peaks and Valleys colt turned in a stellar performance in the Chicago Derby, and holds the distinction of being only one of two horses in the Bluegrass (DEGOLDENSTORM the other) that have won a race that AWESOME FORCE was entered in. While his DI is acceptable for this distance, his CD of .71 is a bit high for my liking, but I expect a decent price, and a horse with his kind of consistency can’t be left out of anyone’s exotics; and therefore qualifies as a Bluegrass key horse.
ATAUN enters the Bluegrass staring gate by virtue of his Grade I win three weeks ago in the Derby Lock Corkscrew Stakes. While his Dosage index is right in line with past Derby winners, this talented colt is still untested against the top three year olds, and although lightly raced, the last six Bluegrass winners had at least 28 days between starts, a factor I will consider heavily in my Derby selection. This colt is in top form and peaking at just the right time, so if there is a horse to break this trend; this is your most likely candidate.
PASSING STONE is the dream horse, the kind of horse in which legends are created. He is perfect five-for-five record going into the Bluegrass Derby. The perfect DI 2.50 CD .68 for the mile and one quarter. Start the presses; we might have the most fabled story the sim has ever witnessed. Well let’s see if he can win this one first. With just three weeks between starts, and his first test against the likes of AWESOME FORCE, DEGOLDENSTORM, and GRAMID, I’m going to take the wait and see approach before I buy the book. This is a great story in the making, and could certainly be a good price on Saturday, but I’m not convinced…yet.
GAHDAMJO is another one of those up and coming stars that’s been flying under the radar. Locked into the Derby field by virtue of his dominating gate to wire victory over the sloppy oval in the California Derby, you have to believe that we are looking at an off track specialist considering his off track record (4-2-2-0). If the track turns up sloppy, and given his mile and a quarter potential, I’d be compelled to use him in my triples, but the weatherman promises a nice day and I’m just going to root for him to keep the front runners honest.
EL INDUSTRIAL pulled up suddenly in his start in the Crackerjack Special. The unlikely Bluegrass starter is certainly a horse that would have received a lot of consideration at the betting windows, and with just a head separating himself and AWESOME FORCE in the Risen Star, there are many who believe this was going to be the next Derby winner. Given his high DI 4.00 CD 1.05, combined with the fact that he hasn’t won beyond a mile and one-sixteenth, he would not been rated highly on my list of potential Bluegrass winners. Tough break for the horse and his connections, but we haven’t heard the last from EL INDUSTRIAL.
LUCKY’S CAPITAL(ENG) just might be the kind of horse I’d be looking for to key in my triples. The talented With Approval(ENG) colt, after spending most of his 2yo season on the turf, has put together a solid 3yo campaign while taking on some of the top three year olds with wins in four of five starts since switching back to the dirt, including a win in the mile and three-sixteenths I’m Trying. With a classic DI of 2.11 and a CD of .50, the only question is was his last start just a stroll around the grounds, or are those 16 lifetime starts catching up with him. That’s a risk factor I rather not gamble on.
Deeper Into The Field We Go
INSKY WINSKY SPIDA(JPN) has had a tough go of it since his valiant effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year when DEGOLDENSTORM just nipped him in the final yards. Lightly raced since then, he’s managed only a 3rd place finish in four starts, but despite his waning form, if you believe in horses for courses, it should be a welcome return to Kentucky, where for all but just but a quarter of a length, he could have been crowned the 2006 two year old champion.
TAXI DRIVER enters this field as one of the few contenders yet to win a Graded race. Second on three different occasions, he has shown he can handle a distance of ground when 2nd in the mile and three-sixteenths I’m Trying Stakes, despite his rather lofty DI of 3.00 and a CD of .88. Lone win this year came in an overnight Stakes, and while I think this colt is very close to breaking the graded ranks, I just don’t see it happening this week in Kentucky.
KING OF ALL MEDIA is a horse that certainly merits consideration on Saturday. With a classic DI 2.00 and CD.67, he has already displayed an ability to handle the Derby distance with a win in the mile and three-sixteenths FIT ABDUL Stakes, and a 2nd place finish the mile and three-sixteenths KID VEGAS Challenge. If there is a concern, it’s his last place finish in the Chicago Derby where he trailed throughout. He’s been known to throw in a clunker now and then, and as much as I like this horses’ ability at this distance, I just don’t know if he will show up for the big dance.
If you asked back in February me who my early Derby pick was I probably would have told you CREEPY MESA. After a powerful stretch drive to finish 2nd in the Giant Slayer Classic, only a jump from upsetting the champion DEGOLDENSTORM, his next start was a disappointing 6th when he failed to fire in the I’m Trying, perhaps the result of a bounce from his valiant effort in the Giant Slayer. His 3rd place-finish in the Sand Castle has him right back on track, and he could be sitting on the race of his life, but that race in the I’m Trying just keeps gnawing at me, and I just can’t put my finger on it. I have to use him somewhere on my tickets, because if I don’t it will come back to haunt me.
MR.EKO(IRE), keeping under the radar, parlayed a solid 3rd place performance in the Florida Derby, and a convincing victory in the Grade II Texas Derby to earn his way into the Bluegrass starting gate. A victory in the Bluegrass would qualify him as only the second horse to capture the roses with a dosage of over 4.00, and the first in the last six Run for the Roses to do it on less than four weeks rest. Too many negative to make my key selection, despite his recent outstanding form.
Despite a poor performance in the Wooden Indian, HENIANLAUCH has what everyone refers to as dangerous speed. While his dosage lands more to the speed side of the scale and less towards the stamina end, if given his own way he has the ability to steal this race from gate to wire. He got the short end of a classic confrontation with DEGOLDENSTORM in the Fountain of Ute, but has the kind of determination to push every horse in the field to its limit. He will be a factor in this race in some way, shape, or form, but in the end it might be that same determination that proves to be his downfall.
Looking every bit like a horse that is getting better with every start, ACHAEMENES qualifies in almost every category that fits the profile of a Bluegrass Derby winner. Winner of his final Derby prep while recording his first triple digit speed, the colt, in uncharacteristic fashion for his connections, comes into the Derby off of a five-week rest. His DI of 2.58 and CD of .58 are nearly perfect by Derby standards, but it is the ease of his victories this year that has persuaded me to make him one of my keys for betting the Bluegrass.
Longshots And Thensome
MORPH THE CAT is my own Derby entry, and considering his 2nd place finish to one of my key Derby choices, ACHAEMENES, you would think that would bode well for my charge, however, I think if there was a comment line in the Past Performances his would probably read like this for the Sand Castle…best of the rest. Hey if you ask me if I have a shot in the Bluegrass I’m going to tell you hell yeah…but don’t ask me if I’m betting on it.
Looking to capture just a glimmer of his 2yo season, PSYCHOTIC GOLD and his connections will hope for a return to the form that earned him a 3rd place finish in the DPCD Eruption back in December. Since that time he has failed to hit the board in four consecutive outings. Despite a very solid Dosage Index of 2.00 and a CD of .61, the capable New York bred appears to be struggling against open company in his 3yo campaign, and fails in almost every Derby qualifier to give enough hope for back-to-back Derby victories for the super stables.
LEGENDARY PEGASUS has really stepped things up over his last two starts finishing 1st in the mile and three-sixteenths NIGHTLY START Special, and finishing runner up in the Grade I Corkscrew Stakes respectively. Upon closer examination you will find a 2nd place finish in the Grade III Cryogenics Juvenile back in September, finishing just two lengths behind the Derby favorite AWESOME FORCE. Given his recent form and an already demonstrated ability to run with the best, one could certainly make a case for his chances on Saturday, however he will have to overcome the obstacle of winning the Bluegrass on three weeks rest, and that hasn’t been done in the past six years.
The lightly race SCHOOLOFHARDKNOCKS earns his way into the Bluegrass field by parlaying a Grade III win in Indiana Juvenile in only his second start back in September, and a fast closing 2nd place finish in the Grade I Wooden Indian LTO. In between, were four unexplainable starts where he was beaten by a combined 48 lengths. His DI of 2.71 and CD of .85 are a bit high for my liking but I loved the way he came storming home in the Wooden Indian. This colt has either regained the form that made him look so impressive as a 2yo, or the Wooden Indian carries little weight in the Bluegrass…your call.
WEEHAWKEN comes into this field winless for 2007 and void of a victory in a Graded event, while making the most of every opportunity that’s come his way. To his credit his 2nd place finishes in the Grade II Can’t Wait for Next Week and the I Am Not a Crook Classic were just enough to earn him his place in this Derby field. Despite his recent effectiveness at rating from off the pace, his somewhat high DI of 3.00 and a CD of .90 coupled with a fading finish in the nine-panel Chicago Derby lands him in the ALL part of my trifecta wager.
Now For The Bet (Drumroll, Please)
Using the maximum betting bankroll of $2500 here is how I will structure my Derby trifecta using GRAMID as my key. It was a tough choice between him and ACHAEMENES, but in the end GRAMID got the nod for his consistency and ability to compete against the top three year olds that the world has to offer.
$15 Trifecta – Total $2430
GRAMID / ACHAEMENES, AWESOME FORCE, DEGOLDENSTORM / ALL
ALL / GRAMID / ACHAEMENES, AWESOME FORCE, DEGOLDENSTORM
ACHAEMENES, AWESOME FORCE, DEGOLDENSTORM / ALL / GRAMID
That leaves me $70…hmmm…$70 to win on MORPH THE CAT…hey it’s my money.
So there you have it, my mechanized approach to betting the Bluegrass Derby. Throw in a few intangibles, like who really wants to go a mile and a quarter, and it’s anybody’s race.
I want to wish all the trainers/owners and their splendid steeds the very best of luck in the ninth running of the most prestigious event in American racing history, The Bluegrass Derby. Being fortunate enough to have a horse enter the Bluegrass Derby starting gate on that first Saturday in May under your colors is gratifying experience in its own right, but winning the Bluegrass, well that’s the ultimate sim experience.