FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND 2/5/2017

 

Well Given hits the board this week with his 10f weapon ‘Spiced Turtle’. I’d say seeing Lenny hit the board a couple of times already probably has been a fair motivation to have a crack. Good stuff Dan, good to see Sebring in the fold as well, he’s done really well IRL and I see a top 100 sire in the SIM he’s excellent value week in week out for breeders. This horse looks a real weapon set for pretty big things this year by the looks he’ll take some beating in 10f G1’s. Good to see another Top SP of the week coming outside the 8-8.5f range (that’s 4 now in total out of 14 weeks).

 

Our Billy The Kid has gone to Latekick’s colt ‘Yankee Freeway’, a son of Giant’s Causeway he’s the first to put his sire on the board in either prize category. Now boasting a 2/2 record after winning on debut in a hotrace this well bred son of GC was successful in stakes company at just his 2nd outing to be a fairly handy type for his trainer. I should also mention this is the 2nd time Latekick has taken out the fastest 2yo of the week so be wary of his juvenile entrants this season he’s already off to a super start with the babies.

 

Congrats to both trainers.

 

 

Each week Zapspride posts his ‘Top 25 Speeds of the Week’ article which lists (as the name suggests) the fastest 25 horses in Simulated racing as well as the 25 fastest 2 year olds.

Here we take a look at the raw data to see what (if any) patterns emerge from the fastest horses in the Sim.

‘Usain Bolt’ is the weekly award given to the fastest horse in Simland while ‘Billy The Kid’ is the weekly honour to the fastest 2yo.

 

 

My whole analysis is based on 12 ‘factors’. The first 6 are TRAINING factors and the last 6 are BREEDING factors:

 

1. Time Of Debut – A very important training consideration. We know that there is an in built ‘wear & tear’ factor in the game. As horses race, a little bit each time gets nipped off their lifespan. This is the simulated version of joint wear and tear and other bodily injury/fatigue sustained during a horse’s career. Does debuting a horse early really effect their ability down the track? Does the month of the debut drastically effect later output?

 

2. Two Year Old Runs – We are told and presume that the more a horse races then as a general rule the harder the wear and tear and most likely the earlier a horse’s career will be ended. Is this reflected in our fastest horses? Does the 2yo each week have a pattern – are they lightly raced or are they all used up as 2yo to attain the SP? Are we seeing older horses that had any races as 2yo? Many? None? Is there a pattern to in this regard to our weekly fastest horse?

 

3. Time Between Runs – So we all know backing a horse up at 7 day intervals really doesn’t work very well unless you’re hoping to be the Hot Race king and clean up your 2yo first 10 starts on the trot. However what is the most beneficial time between races? Many trainers suggest no less than 6, others say 4 – 6, others say so long as a minimum of 3 weeks you’ll be fine and others are of the opinion that so long as it’s not a regular thing 2 weeks is also ok. 2 year olds need to be given even longer. Who’s right? Who’s wrong? Are we all right? Or are we all wrong? Who knows that’s part of the beauty of this great game that we all have different opinions and seem to be able to get the most out of our horses……. Or do we?

 

4. Class Drop – Did this horse drop back in class to attain the SP? Many trainers believe that dropping a horse back in class will result in an improved performance. eg dropping back from a G1 to G3 or ungraded stakes to an alw, etc.

 

5. Distance Drop – Very similar to ‘Class Drop’ it is thought within the sim training community that dropping back in distance can likewise yield huge improvements in performance

 

6. Surface Switch – Many times a horse will seemingly prefer one surface then run into a dead end of performance. This can be the game’s way of intuitively directing trainers to where their horse is best placed. I know one trainer who if their horse doesn’t win (or run very well) after 2 consecutive starts on any given surface that this is enough to make the switch. How many times racing before making the switch is an individual trainer preference however here we will look for a pattern in this aspect.

 

7. Current Sire Cost – Each week this will be measured based on breeding points (as credits can be unknown when being bought over 1000). The measurement will be taken at the time of writing the article so is prone to fluctuation.

 

8. Available on Credits – A simple measure of the 3 sires that were used in the breeding as to whether they are currently available on credits to see if there is any pattern here. Listed in the format S/DS/DDS.

 

9. Scratchbred or Dam – Is the horse from a mare (and if so how good was the mare? What surface did she prefer?) or was the horse bred from scratch.

 

10. Dosage – Many in the sim believe dosage is very important in determining performance of the offspring, while others are not so convinced. This will be a simple look at whether dosage in this case has lined up with the result seen (as I presume top SP of the week is achieved at ideal surface/distance/class for any given horse.) I won’t go into the ins and outs of dosage there are a number of great articles on dosage I’ll just post it here to allow you guys to make your own deductions.

 

11. Inbreeding – Is the horse inbred through the 3 x 4 breeding box and if so who to and how many times. This box I refer to is the one generated from the 3 sire panel for every horse when you click on any given horse’s 3 sire breeding combination.

 

 

12. Sire Ratio – All game sires are rated as either (R) or (S) ie. Route or Speed and also (T) or (D) ie. Turf or Dirt. Many trainers like to use different combinations of route and speed when breeding however is this playing a role? Is it important at all? Are certain combinations working better than others? Are the highest sps correlating in any way to the sire ratio. This will be written in the order S/DS/DDS as per other categories here. Likewise do mixtures of Turf and Dirt breeds work? Or does it mess horses up? Does it even matter? Or is a consistent approach better and produce more reliable results?

 

 

 

 

THE FASTEST HORSES IN SIMLAND THIS WEEK ARE……………..

 

 

USAIN BOLT:      SP: 120.893

‘Spiced Turtle’ (Sebring x Sadler’s Wells x Roberto) 4yo bay colt trained by Given. G1 Winner.

  

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	10	7	0	1	$1,537,224
Dirt	1	0	0	0	$974
Turf	9	7	0	1	$1,536,250
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	3	2	0	1	$67,810
Routes	7	5	0	0	$1,469,414
Off	0	0	0	0	$0

 

1. Time Of Debut: February 3yo

2. Two Year Old Runs: NIL

3. Time Between Runs: Routinely 5 weekly. Had a nice 10 week break at the end of 2016 campaign and interestingly ran first up in a G1 for his 2017 campaign to get this result.

4. Class Drop: NO. Lead up also a G1

5. Distance Drop: NO. Lead up also 10f

6. Surface Switch: NO. Also turf

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 484/1000/196

8. Available on Credits: YES/NO/YES

9. Scratchbred or Dam: SCRATCHBRED

10. Dosage: DI : 0.90 | CD : 0.10
3-0-13-4-0

11. Inbreeding: NO

12. Sire Ratio: TS x TR x TR

 

 

 

 

 

 

BILLY THE KID:    SP: 74.654

‘Yankee Freeway’ (Giant’s Causeway x Tapit x Special Week). 2yo light grey colt trained by latekick. Ungraded Stakes winner.

 

	R	W	P	S	$
Career	2	2	0	0	$63,000
Dirt	2	2	0	0	$63,000
Turf	0	0	0	0	$0
Poly	0	0	0	0	$0
Sprint	2	2	0	0	$63,000
Routes	0	0	0	0	$0
Off	0	0	0	0	$0

 

1. Time Of Debut: January 2yo

2. Two Year Old Runs: 2

3. Time Between Runs: 30 days

4. Class Drop: NO. Jumped from a debut hotrace win to ungraded stakes for this SP

5. Distance Drop: NO. Increased 1/2f to 5f for this

6. Surface Switch: NO. Lead up also dirt

7. Current Sire Cost (BP’s): 1000/1000/1888

8. Available on Credits: NO/NO/YES

9. Scratchbred or Dam: DAM. ALW winner 14 races of 29 starts preferred dirt. Winner of $178k career prizemoney. This is her first foal.

10. Dosage: DI : 1.91 | CD : 0.41
3-7-22-0-0

11. Inbreeding: NO

12. Sire Ratio: DR x DR x DR

 

 

 

 

1.    HONOUR ROLL

SIM WEEK	USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
6th November 2016	Outback Kialla	Warriors Danz Ted
13th November 2016	Fear The Freak	Sand Tempest
20th November 2016	Streets of Sin	Two Dozen Roses
27TH November 2016	Darkside Will	Hyperactivity
4th December 2016	Tap Suzy	Dark Maduro
11th December 2016	Destroyer of Suns	Finally The One
18th December 2016	Rynning	Crimson’s Star
25th December 2016	Ya Jackwagon	Yankee Great
1st January 2017	Tap Suzy	Eclipse Solar
8th January 2017	Norseman	I Stay All Day
15th January 2017	River of Doubt	Jenna’s Promise
22nd January 2017	Mo Pye Mo Problems	Flashtasmic
29th January 2017	Carabella	Overdare
5th February 2017	Spiced Turtle	Yankee Freeway

 

 

 

2.    TRAINER LEADER BOARD

Balata                 4

Lenny271           4

Robscoobi          2

Vyz                       2

Knightmare        2

Rvd                      2

Dixiedotco          2

Gcliffo                 2

Skunkbarn          2

Coolk                   2

Cvbear                2

Handshobby       2

Given                   2

Latekick              2

Amir1605           1

Woodenjock      1

Asmussen           1

Lightng99           1

Jockeymax         1

Haack                  1

Gezlodge            1

Masterm            1

Alphonso            1

Gerque               1

 

 

 

3.    SIRE LEADER BOARD

USAIN BOLT	BILLY THE KID
Awesome Again  2	Majestic Warrior  1
Tapit        2	Trippi   1
Will Take Charge 1	Distorted Humor 1
Street Cry     1	City Zip      1
Medaglia D’Oro    1	Intello      1
Lawman      1	American Pharoah   1
Lonhro      1	Sea The Stars     1
Galileo   1	One Great Cat      1
Orb     1	Malibu Moon    1
Uncle Mo    1	Zagreb      1
New Approach   1	Choisir     1
Sebring        1	Flashback   1
	Daredevil    1
	Giant’s Causeway  1

 

 

 

4. FASTEST HORSE IN SIMLAND   :   Tap Suzy  123.6724

 

 

5.    SERIES SUMMARY

 n=14

	Usain Bolt	Billy The Kid
Time of Debut	2yo: 11           3yo: 3        4yo:0	Jan-June:13        July-Dec:1
2yo Runs	0:3       1-3: 5       3-5:5       6+: 1	1-3:5           3-5:3           6+:6
Time Between Runs	<3w:           3-4w:          4w+:14	<3w:1           3-4w: 1         4w+:10
Class Drop	No: 11             Yes:3	No:8             Yes:3
Distance Drop	No: 11            Yes:3	No:10              Yes:1
Surface Switch	No: 14             Yes:	No:11              Yes:
Current Sire Cost	<1250:3           >1250:11	<1250:6           >1250:8
Available on Credits	YES:              NO:14	YES: 5              NO:9
Scratchbred or Dam	Scratch:8              Dam:6	Scratch:5             Dam:9
Dosage	YES:13             NO:1 YES:14              NO: Surface                  Distance	YES:11             NO:3 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface              Distance
Inbreeding	YES:1              NO:13	YES:4              NO:10
Sire Ratio	YES:14             NO: YES:11             NO:3 Surface                   Distance	YES:11              NO:3 YES:N/A              NO:N/A Surface                  Distance

*Dosage column: Yes/No based on whether dosage indicated correct surface & distance

*Sire Ratio: Yes/No based on whether ratio indicated correct surface & distance combination based on 2/3 majority of sire ratings. eg. If 2x TR and 1 x TS then the resulting 2/3 majority being assessed would be TR. Example would be Dansili (TS) x Kingmambo(TR) x Northern Dancer(TR). (S) will be assessed as <8f.

*Current sire cost is total breeding points of all 3 sires used. I felt 1250 to be fair, allows for 250 for DDS, 500 DS, 500 sire. I chose this figure fairy arbitrarily.

*Available on credits: All 3 sires in the breeding need to be available in order to mark a ‘YES’ result.

*Billy The Kid marked ‘N/A’ for distance assessment under both Sire Ratio and Dosage as it is inaccurate to make a call on 2yo handling distance or not as a general rule.