Yanta Snez Stakes (Grade II)

Santa Ynez Stakes (Grade II)

3 Year Olds | Fillies | 7 furlongs | Dirt | $375,000

We are officially on the Kentucky Oaks trail as the second weekend of stakes action kicks off at “The Great Sim Race Place” with the Yanta Snez Stakes here in Santa Anita, California. These top fillies, looking for a shot to race on the first Saturday in May, are here in the shadows of the San Gabriel Mountains to run 7 furlongs on what looks will be a fast track. Many of these fillies spent their 2 year old campaigns pointing to this moment, where they could get a graded stakes under their belt early in the year. In doing so, sim race fans will have the opportunity to watch nine stakes winners compete on Saturday, two of which have won in graded competitions.

DARK N IMPACT (22/1)

This alimitos trained filly by KYLLACHY (GB) has only won on dirt on an off-track listed as good, and has never been close to the toteboard in the listed stakes races she has run on turf. Her speed figures jumped a little on her surface change to dirt, but she’ll need to jump out to the front in order to avoid getting pinned on the rail, something she’s only done once running on an off-track. I think that DARK N IMPACT’s connections have found her preferred surface, but this horse has never run against graded company, and it’s going to be difficult to overcome the class inequality.

KERIS SPUN RY (5/1)

KERIS SPUN RY, a HARD SPUN filly out of an EMPIRE MAKER mare (KERIS DAGGER BED), comes to Santa Anita on a four-race winning streak at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. You can tell in her 6 and 6.5 furlong races that this ryry trainee wants more distance, and her pedigree and 8.5 furlong romp in the Minnesota Testbarn Miss Juvenile Stakes back that up. So, how will this horse respond to a drop in distance? In her past sprints, this horse has benefited from an early first fraction, but a slow down in the second quarter mile. If that sort of tempo is replicated on Saturday, KERIS SPUN RY has the speed and persistence to outlast the field down the stretch.

FUN TO FANTASIZE (12/1)

Nepenthe14 sends out this scratch bred by LION HEART at a long number that I think is a value play come Saturday. She’s bred for routing (LION HEART won at 8.5 and 9 furlongs, and also competed at 1 1/4 miles), and has yet to compete above 6.5 furlongs, so the added distance will let this horse stretch her legs even more as a filly that comes from deep off the pace. I like this horse a lot, but the fast pace set by others in this field has me concerned that FUN TO FANTASIZE may not have enough late speed to catch up, though at 12/1 morning line, that’s a risk I’ll take!

PHAROAHINI (8/1)

AMERICAN PHAROAH burst onto the sim scene with an incredible first crop, which PHAROAHINI is a member of. Pharoah was paired with MY MATE BERNIE, a stakes-winning BERNARDINI hemare who consistently won at lengths greater than 1 1/4 miles. Davarto has taken his time with this filly, racing her only three times in her 2 year old campaign, with all races coming at 7 or 7.5 furlongs. PHAROAHINI is coming off a nice break, as she last raced in late November, and the last time she took an extended break, she came off fresh and took home her first listed stakes. I think this horse is meant for a route, but she’s shown a liking for the 7 furlong clip, which makes her a threat come Saturday.

BOOK OF CAPOTE (14/1)

This filly has struggled since breaking her maiden in April; the resting trainee has jumped between distances and classes, but has never attempted a NW2L. Her saving grace is that both her sire (INTO MISCHIEF) and her dam (HENNY’S CAPOTE) loved this sprint range. From a betting perspective, I’m cool on this horse just because she’s been raced a lot (LTO was less than a month ago), and she’s yet to win against horses of this caliber.

CHEROKEE COUNTESS (16/1)

Another horse that hasn’t quite found its rhythm since her first two races in the second quarter of last year. CHEROKEE COUNTESS’ sire, MEDAL COUNT, jumped surface to surface during his career, and it seems like crandyv’s filly may need a surface change as well-, or needs a drop in class. It seems to this handicapper that this graded effort is the last chance for her to prove herself to her connections before a major shakeup ensues.

READY TO BOOGY (11/1)

Claimerang2 dropped major dollars and breeding points ($125,000 and 250, respectively) to steal this horse away from lazyguy, and then immediately dropped her in two listed stakes back to back. It was in the second stakes race, the Arrogance Dirt Juvenile Fillies at 7.5 furlongs on dirt, that READY TO BOODY (READY’S IMAGE x JOHANNESBURG x DANZIG) beat a 12-horse field by a length and a half. This horse wants to set the pace, and will compete with those mentioned previously to do exactly that. If she’s not pushed, look for her to potentially wire this impressive field. This horse is a steal at 11/1.

MANDATED RAID (5/1)

MANDATED RAID (a padrebri15 trainee) last won going 7 furlongs, and has put up impressive figures while hitting the board in two routes against listed company. That said, this STRONG MANDATE filly, out of GONE WEST mare CRYPT RAIDER, sits well off the pace and likes to close, which does not bode well for what I anticipate to be a quick. Let me be clear, this is a hell of a horse (especially at a flat mile), but she’s coming off 21 days rest, and I can’t bet her as the morning line favorite if she takes this kind of money before post. In the event she drifts upwards of 10/1, then I will bet her, but for now, she could potentially round out a superfecta.

JORDAN PARK (8/1)

It was at Belmont Park in the Grade I Frickazee Stakes that JORDAN PARK punched her ticket to the Breeders Bowl and made her mother, ASH HIGHWAY, a Hall of Famer. Whether it was the quick turnaround or the added half furlong, but JORDAN PARK (DISTORTED HUMOR x DANZIG x STORM CAT) did not get the trip she wanted and finished 7.5 lengths back in 12th. The drop in distance seems to be a test by trainer xpansion7 that JORDAN PARK indeed wants to route, or if she’s going to be the type that goes back and forth between a long sprint and a flat mile. There is some chatter that the inconsistencies could be due to the inbred level to DANZIG (2D x 3S) and FORTY NINER (2S x 4D), but only time will tell.

TROODON (16/1)

Another horse that is not given enough credit from the oddsmakers, TROODON has been gently handled by his connections, who have slowly worked this horse up to a longer sprint that I think it wants. This 7 furlong contest is a true test in what distance this horse wants, and I think she is going to respond well. Her mother, DEHERE NOW, excelled at 7 furlongs, and HENNY HUGHES was a well-known sprinter. Regardless of how this filly does on Saturday, she is certainly one to watch in the sprinting division moving forward, as I think her versatility within sprint distances is elastic.

SATAN’S TALE (14/1)

Can’t really tell what this horse wants/needs, if it’s distance or a shorter track. This daughter of TALE OF EKATI is out of SATAN SONG, an UNBRIDLED’S SONG mare who never won past her maiden, and is trained by ratem.  In her last time out, SATAN’S TALE shot of the gate to trade the lead with four other horses, but pulled away at the half mile mark to win by more than two lengths and earning a speed figure of 90. I can’t tell if the good oddsmakers are still on a winter vacation, and this horse is getting longer odds than it should. Keep reading to see where I land on this one.

SEA THE DEEP DAWN (19/1)

This filly, trained by bluegrassstate, has a pure turf pedigree (DAWN APPROACH (IRE) x SEA THE STARS (IRE) x DEEP IMPACT (JPN)), has shown some success on turf at 8.5 furlongs, and has only won on dirt in a HOT race with three other horses. For that, I’m going to pass on this horse, though I think she will be successful on grass moving forward.

ATOM STORM (5/1)

ATOM STORM (TAPIT x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR), trained by wolflodge, is the morning line favorite with two other horses. Nonetheless, look for this horse to get bet down at the window to 2/1 or even 9/5. She’s proven herself exceptionally at the 7 furlong distance (though I would have liked to see that NW2L win in a better class), especially her last time out in a listed stakes where she posted a 95 speed figure and won by 3 lengths going 7.5 furlongs. The pace was pretty slow in that race, but the level of speed with TAPIT and MR. PROSPECTOR in her pedigree allows this closer to make up ground quickly.

WILD AND FUNNY (12/1)

If you didn’t expect to see a Massachusetts bred horse campaigning for a Kentucky Oaks bid, take a number. This graywolf trainee by WILD DESERT out of HENNESSEY mare, VASCILLATING, and had a tremendous beginning to her 2 year old season; WILD AND FUNNY reeled off four wins, including the Grade III Unusual Circumstances Juvenile in May 2016. As graywolf began to extend the horse and the other 2 year old fillies began to mature, WILD AND FUNNY hit a bit of a rut, and has not hit the toteboard since August. It was that day in early August that WILD AND FUNNY finished second to the 2nd ranked dirt sprinting filly, SUMMA CORP, in The Sorgento (Grade II), so perhaps the drop in distance will work out for graywolf and the rest of WILD AND FUNNY’s connections.

*Writer’s Note: This was easily one of the hardest races I’ve handicapped for the BTB yet. Best of luck to all connections.

CapeCod’s Picks:

3 – FUN TO FANTASIZE

11 – SATAN’S TALE

13 – ATOM STORM

CapeCod’s All-Time Record:

5-6-6 (38%)

CapeCod’s Record Last Time Out:

1-1-0 (67%)