BLACK BETTY HANDICAP
Black Betty Handicap
Grade II
A mile and one eighth
Good Turf
$200,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Welcome to Northern Florida for todays feature, the Grade II BLACK BETTY handicap over 9f on the Turf course. There has been a little spring rain and the going is Good.
There are eleven entries for the race and it looks to be an open renewal, with the favourite at 4/1 on the morning line and all bar one of the rest at 12/1 or less. Lets take a look at each runner –
ADIOS AMIGO (EL CORREDOR x LYPHARD x PLEASANT COLONY) devil01
Pretty consistant mare over the the year or so with only one recent finish out of the top four. Has three recent runs which have produced 100+ sp’s, including a Grade I victory over todays trip in the Princess Di Cup. 9/1 may seem a big price for a recent Grade I winner down in class to a Grade II but she seems to have two ways of running- either a decent honest run with a top five place and a high 90 sp, or a good closing run with a 100+ sp which has brought two wins and a second from the last three such races. Has a chance regardless, but would be a big threat if this is one of her better days.
COSMO GIRL (STORM CAT x GONE WEST x NIJINSKY II) theoc2
How much blue blood do you want, pretty specially bred this one but not yet a special horse. All her recent runs at 8f or further have seen her closing to within a few lengths of the winner or indeed winning herself yet probably her best recent run was in winning the Grade III Train Station over 7.5f with a 104 sp. She looks ready both on breeding and on racing for this trip though and looks rock solid for a top four place. She has been coming from miles back in a lot of her races and I think if she was kept a bit closer to the lead, say in the middle of the pack, that great finishing kick could be used to better effect.
RUNNING SCARED(IRE) (EL PRADO(IRE) x ROBERTO x RAISE A NATIVE) crazyjoe
She’s got the better of Cosmo Girl a couple of times already this year and is another who looks to be crying out for this trip. Her latest run produced a sparkling 106 sp in coming second in the A P Form Memorial stakes over 8f. Looks set for a huge run, with a definate top four and I think the win may be on the cards. Likes to sit near the front and with first run on most of the field will take some pegging back at the finish.
STAR WEST (RAHY x A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED) naracing2
Has one recent allowance win and only one recent race with an sp over 90 and is basically the outsider in the betting with good reason. Would have to run a lifetime best to get in the money and would take a miracle for her to win. Belongs in allowance company, although this does look her distance.
BAD SCENE (PLEASANTLY PERFECT x MISWAKI x SWORD DANCE(IRE)) lenny6
Very interesting this one, a brilliant last run over todays trip in winning the Grade III OK Bayou with a 106 sp and her only poor recent runs have been over 10f. 12/1 on the morning line looks a huge price although prior to that her form had been dropping off (although that was at the end of her 3yo season). Looks a definite top four as she sits right up with the pace and should be able to cover all the moves. Another run like her last would probably see a win.
POINT OUT(IRE) (SINGSPIEL(IRE) x BE MY GUEST x GREEN DANCER) tcrowell
Another ultra consistant mare who seemingly improved for the step up to 8f latest and even then looked to want at least todays trip. Has no recent graded runs and that alone leaves her a little to find with the principles here. However she looks to be crying out for this trip and if she improves by a similar amount to her last runs she will take a hand in the finish. If not a top five would be her best bet.
BLUE WHITE (FORT WOOD x NORTHFIELDS x MOUNT HAGEN(FR)) safbred
Another with too few recent graded runs (one) and who has run her best races at a mile. Has won an allowance recently at this trip but only with an 80 sp and that leaves her some 20-25 points shy here. Seems to be out of this one, might even be better over an extended sprint at say 7-7.5f. Can’t see even a place today.
CANDY CANE (DISTANT VIEW x LEAR FAN x AL NASR(FR)) wally123
Has been sprinting and has been struggling to last home in most of those. Has some nice graded runs and stakes wins but does not look like 9f will be her distance. If this was over 6f she would have a decent chance but expect her to be leading through the first half of todays race ad to fade badly thereafter. Cannot see her finishing better than sixth or seventh.
NORTHERN PULP (PULPIT x NORTHERN DANCER x BUCKPASSER) theogbarn
Has now one six races in a row and seven of her last eight, including a Grade III win latest over todays trip with a 107 sp. She also has a 113 sp over 9f in an allowance win recently. Likes to sit up with the pace and since she has two of the best recent sp’s in the field she will prove hard to beat. Looks as though anything that beats her will win the race and with only 17 runs she looks to have plenty of top races in her and should become a grade I winner before long.
GRAND ENTRY (STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) chilimac
Another super consistant runner- until her last two races. She has won a grade II over 8f and been second in a grade I over todays trip but the suspicion is that she is really a sprinter. She has been 5-9 lengths clear at the three quarter mark five times recently over 8-9f and never been more than 2 lengths clear at the finish. She will vie for the lead up to the five furlong mark before leading on her own but i think she will get caught. The question is by how many of the field and how late in the race. Should last out for a top five but i still would like to she her over 7-7.5f .
MISWAKI’S LAST (MISWAKI x KRIS S. x ARTAIUS) xanthu3
Has won four of her last five, with four wins in a row in regular stakes races. This seems to be her distance and she’s on the upgrade but her lack of experience in graded races may count against her here. Obviously has the class for graded races and will win at this level but maybe not today. Another who will sit mid pack, she will have to pull out a career best to win but that wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Has a chance but not today for me.
A very difficult race with a lot of horses still on the upgrade and capable of winning at this level but i’m going for NORTHERN PULP beat RUNNING SCARED(IRE) and BAD SCENE