Drive For Five — Special Prep Lock Edition (Written by Afc)
DRIVE FOR FIVE—SPECIAL PREP LOCK EDITION
Well, it’s nearing the big day. Some of the long shots we’ve featured in the Drive for Five have done pretty well, and some have disappeared. El Industrial has locked up a spot. Eight Track Mind has performed well, and is one of the ones to watch in a Derby Lock Prep this weekend. Kepler Cro Cor has shown himself to be as brilliant as any three year old out there- on off tracks at least. Blastshaft got blasted out of the picture. Be Auror Song is hanging around, but his distance limitations are haunting him.
With no less than three lock preps this week; it’s do or die time for many on the trail. Eight Track Mind is one of the favorites in the California Derby. All Flags Gold, the long shot special we pegged in the first edition remains undefeated, and is one of the favorites in the Chicago Derby. Jurassic Bone is in with a shot, and King of Mud returns to try and lock up a spot as well.
Let’s take a look this week, and see who might step up and who’s going to get the final knockout blow delivered to their Derby aspirations.
CALIFORNIA DERBY– Drive for Five listees Jurassic Bone and Eight Track Mind hook up on the sloppy California surface. It’s a strange race, and there are a bunch of slop lovers in this race. The weatherman may have a big say in who’s going to the Bluegrass Derby. Eight Track Mind has never seen an off track. He just missed his shot at locking a spot up when El Industrial inhaled him in deep stretch in the All Saints Derby. He’s got good early speed, and if he likes the off track, which his pedigree suggests he will, he could wire this field. Jurassic Bone has also never run on an off track. He’s going to have to step up and he doesn’t have the wet pedigree that Eight Track Mind possesses. Peppet is currently ranked #144, but he’s two for two on off surfaces, including a monster 106 figure in a listed stakes LTO, defeating Kepler Cro Cor in the process. Angels of Darkness moved way up on an off track LTO, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. Warchild is two for two on off tracks, but he’ll have to have a big jump in his figs to make a dent in here. If Peppet comes back strong on only two weeks break, he’ll be tough to beat.
CHICAGO DERBY– All Flags Gold looks to pull an I Seek U here. I Seek U got his spot in the Derby via an overpowering performance in this very race, and the son of Seeking the Gold has done nothing wrong thus far. Gramid bounced off a huge effort in the Silver Fence Derby, and looks to make amends here. He probably doesn’t need a win to get in- a place will do it, and a show just might get it done, too. Zap De Lemon, on the other hand, must win to get in. He’s improved significantly in each race, topped with a 102 figure in the Risen Star Stakes LTO. Another move forward puts him solidly in the mix. Kashmir Hex took the inevitable step back LTO, but if he rebounds and continues to move forward as he had been prior to the dreaded bounce, he could figure. At #73, a place showing may get him in, if he chooses to run again before the Derby, but a win would be much more desired (duh). Northern Bullet has run his two best lifetime races on the Illinois strip, and his last was outstanding-if he doubles up on that, he’s going to be right there. He’s another one where a place likely gets him in the gate for the Derby. This is shaping up to be an outstanding race, and a long shot is more than likely to crash the Derby party out of this field.
WOODEN INDIAN– King of Mud is one of two Drive for Five horses in the field. He’s weakened in the lane in two of his last three, both at 8.5 furlongs. The last cost him dearly, as he was overtaken in deep stretch to finish fourth in the Grade 2 Felipe Alou Cap. How much would those extra stakes points have helped him? Well, it is safe to say that a place here gets him in- if he had held third in the Felipe Alou, he might sneak in with only an on the board finish. Never thought I’d say this about a horse with a pedigree of Kingmambo-Theatrical-Lyphard, but it looks like he’s got some distance issues. Global Affair keeps moving forward in each race, and he looks like he should adore the last sixteenth of a mile here. A change of tactics propelled Belisario to a new career top LTO (100), and if he can duplicate that, a place may get him into the big dance in four weeks. Valid Missle is the other Drive for Five vet in here, and he needs to rebound big time to get into the Derby. Only a win here is likely to do the trick. Not much else to like in this field and the favorite in this race (Henianlauch) looks to be pretty tough. In a twist of fate, a poor showing by Boss Hog Lago (currently ranked #15) could hurt his chances significantly. With only four weeks to go, there’s not much time for those still doing the fence sitting routine. I’m anxiously awaiting the next race for Keller Crow Cur- trainer marianus has bypassed the big races this week, and it will be interesting to see if he can sneak in a non- Lock prep. He’s as talented as anyone out there- if the weatherman gives him his way.