Equinics: The Fall of the Berlin Wall

(Editor note:  Article jointly written by Spinround and Roxyken) 

 

The Fall of the Berlin Wall is a rich $750,000 Equinics race featuring the ladies that admit their age as being four year old or older.  They compete in Vermont at a distance of 6.5 furlongs and will run on the dirt.  

 

The article features a table review of the field by Spinround and Roxyken who each provide their view points on each of the 20 horses in this humongous field. 

 

 

 

1	PLATINUM PATH  25/1

 

DF-spinround: Platinum Path – may be the best daughter of grade two winning sprint mare Canadian Gold. She’s lightly raced but her three races this year have been solid, including her allowance second where she ran a 110 speed.

 

DF-roxyken: Platinum has good front speed, and that 110 back in May was an exceptional effort. I would consider this one with a chance to upset in a field I think that some of the top spots are wide open.

 

 

2	CJ’S STOKES CASTLE  21/1

 

DF-spinround: CJ’s Stokes Castle – regally bred daughter of Ghostzapper ran a great race when third in the Grade Two Long Island Sprint Stakes. She was beaten less than a length in that spot and has the quality to win a graded race. This late closer may have enough pace to run into in this spot.

 

DF-roxyken: CJ’s Stoke has a pair of recent listed stake wins but the grade level has been a thorn to her, just missing by less than a stride in two recent outings. The distance does fit her nicely.

 

 

3	SEE YA CONNECTION  28/1

 

DF-spinround: See Ya Connection – this polytrack specialist is in career best form. Her fourth place finish in the Grade Two Gleaming Invitational was deceptively good and she finished just over two lengths behind the winner. She’s running triple digit speeds consistently but she will have to improve to medal here.

DF-roxyken: See Ya moved back to the dirt recently and fired off some speeds in low 100-range and this was in G2 events. In both she had favorable position but allowed others to mow by her. Not so sure she will be able to prevent that from occurring again.

 

4	WESTIZAR   26/1

 

DF-spinround: Westizar – with fourteen wins from twenty races this filly knows how to find the wire first. She’s run six times already this year, winning three times including an allowance with a 107 speed. She’s never broken through at the stakes level but she’s been stakes placed several times. Tough spot to see her changing that but she’s awfully consistent.

DF-roxyken: Lots of wins for Westizar but nothing yet in stakes company. She loves to be on the lead and will fight it out to the wire but I think she’s a bit over her head with the large jump up from allowance.

 

5	I CHOOSE  12/1

 

DF-spinround: I Choose – Lightly raced filly with only twelve career starts has already won at the grade two level. That race came three starts back when she took the Bed of Flowers at seven furlongs on a good track with a 115 speed. She has to show she can run speeds like that on a fast course though.

DF-roxyken: A very nice trio of consecutive wins which was capped with the G2 win on an off track and sizzling 115 speed which may have dried up the track after she ran on it. She didn’t have enough in her in last to close on the leaders finishing third in Gleaming Invitational, but with finishing in top-3 in all of her career starts makes her a contender for the podium in my opinion

 

 

6	INDIAN DEFENSE  13/1

 

DF-spinround: Indian Defense – This daughter of Smart Strike and multiple graded winner Chief Rainmaker has two stakes wins to her credit but has failed to hit the board in three graded attempts. She’s run second in her last two efforts, both at the listed level. She’s a nice filly but there are some strong entries in this spot.

DF-roxyken: Indian has been racing the stakes circuit for a good year now and has a pair of wins and three seconds to her credit. Graded level is her foe. She needs to find a way to step things up at this level. Oddmakers have her at a competitive 13/1 but I’m not sold she’ll step up to the plate.

 

7	LA VIEJA MARISOL  12/1

 

DF-spinround: La Vieja Marisol – this gorgeously bred daughter of Scat Daddy and grade three winner La Gran Verduga is a half sister to grade one winning sprinter Go Verduga Go. She’s got big shoes to fill but she’s already won a grade two in her 2015 send-off. This season she has a win and a second in three starts with an average speed of 110.

 

DF-roxyken: La Vieja Marisol ended 2015 on nice note winning G2 La Zebra with 115 speed. She kicked off 2016 with fine win in listed with sharp 113 speed followed by a second, just short by a quarter stride, also in listed. But last outing concerns me with 6th in G1 Humane Distaff. She needs to shake this off and get her act back together. She’s consistent in being on the board but that last outing does bother me.

 

 

8	TWISTED EMOTIONS  21/1

 

DF-spinround: Twisted Emotions – this filly changed strategies by going straight to the front in her last start and was rewarded by a big win in a listed stakes at this distance. She’s only tried a graded race once but she’s been a solid listed level stakes runner. It will be interesting to see how she comes back after that big win.

 

DF-roxyken: Twisted was a bit of an upset in her last, winning at 7/1 and wiring the field. She’s not known for her early speed and I think that surprised quite a few people as she nailed a 109 career best speed. She was rattled in her sole grade run late last year but her form is pretty solid this year. A bit steep at 21/1 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her finish near the top of the field.

 

 

9	FREE ADVICE  14/1

 

DF-spinround: Free Advice – what do they say about Free Advice? Take it with a grain of salt? Someone tell this filly’s owner I’ve got a whole salt shaker if he wants to give up this filly. It’s one of those nice ones too that has a grinder in it and everything. Ok I kid, I kid. This mare has not won at the graded level yet but she was second in the Grade Two Bed of Flowers at seven furlongs back in April and before that had two strong allowance wins at this distance. She ran an uncharacteristically poor race in her last start.

 

DF-roxyken: Free Advice has been in nice form and I think her last race is a throw-away. Finishing 8th in the Blackhawk Cup doesn’t look great, but she was making up ground. She does drop a small bit in distance back to 6.5f where she had two previous wins this year and you can’t ignore the 2nd in the Two Bed of Flowers with that 112 speed on an off-track, right behind I Choose. I think she’ll improve off her last.

 

 

10	JUKE BABYLON  55/1

 

DF-spinround: Juke Babylon – the lightest raced horse in the field, Juke Babylon has only eight starts to her name but she’s won four with three seconds. Her last two starts have resulted in triple digit speed although one of those races came at a mile. I think this filly may be special but I don’t know that this is the race she will show it in.

 

DF-roxyken: Babylon looks like an up-and-comer to me. Despite just eight starts, she has made her presence know with four wins and has won her last two starts. Most recent was a 106 winning by two going a longer mile distance. She makes her first stakes appearance and I’ll take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to see how she handles the tougher competition as she advances from the allowance level.

 

 

11	BEYOND THE SEA   20/1

 

DF-spinround: Beyond the Sea – won last season’s Grade Two Honored Miss Stakes at six furlongs, Beyond the Sea has won three of six starts this year including two stakes races. The two stakes wins came at five furlongs and the feeling here is she may be better going a bit shorter.

 

DF-roxyken: Four grade races since the start of 2015 for Beyond the Sea and three have been tough ones. She won the G2 Honored Miss almost a year to the day ago but as a longshot at 17/1. She struck out in all other tries at the grade level and this works against her in my mind.

 

 

12	FROSTY MAE  5/1

 

DF-spinround: Frosty Mae – a deserving favorite here, this filly has won four grade ones already in her career and looks nowhere close to quitting. She prepped for this start with a facile allowance win at this distance but she did it in style with a low-for-her 110 speed.

 

DF-roxyken: Frosty Mae looks like the class of the field. Last five starts were all speeds of 110 or greater and she has a pair of G1 wins in the Everclear Handicap and Humane Distaff. She took an easy allowance prep race last month to keep her sharpness up coming into the Eclipse. The one to beat.

 

 

13	MO DYNA  22/1

 

DF-spinround: Mo Dyna – began the year running in route races but switched to sprints in April when she won her first stakes race going five and one half furlongs. She came back to run third in a listed at seven and one half furlongs. She’s run fast going a mile or more (her career best speed is a 113) but she hasn’t run that fast going short. She’ll have to prove herself here.

 

DF-roxyken: Mo Dyna has early speed and will be battling out on the lead. She has won three of her last five races which includes a listed win at 5.5 furlongs. Her first two career starts were both at 6.5 furlongs which she won and she returns to that distance for the first time. I think it is going to be hard for her to make that front speed go all the way against this field.

 

 

14	ZABEEL AKNA  12/1

 

DF-spinround: Zabeel Akna – trainer daniel has had wild success with Zabeel’s running on the dirt. His Za Ah Tabai won the 2014 Equinics at 6 furlongs on the dirt for older males and now he’s back with a filly this year. Zabeel Akna has done just a bit better going seven and seven and one half furlongs where she is a multiple listed winner and graded stakes placed but she’s a quality mare and could factor here.

 

DF-roxyken: After a pair of wins in allowance and listed stakes, she followed this up with her best performance in a grade level race finishing second in the Delta Tau Chi Sprint. An 8-time dirt winner has been going well of late and comes off a good trio of races. But she will need to bring her best game with her to get her way in the Equinics.

 

 

15	ALBERTA FRONT  8/1

 

DF-spinround: Alberta Front – this may be the hardest-luck horse in the game. She’s won four grade twos and hit the board in four grade ones without winning one. A quality, quality filly who just hasn’t broken through at the top level. Interestingly she’s never run this short before, with all of her races coming at seven furlongs or longer. Maybe that will be the difference she needs to get her W.

 

DF-roxyken: A strong late closer, Alberta just got to the wire in time in her last race the Best Flight (G2) flying with a 110 speed. She’s got a deep history of running at the grade level but the wins have been elusive with the previous one coming back in March, 2015. I like her late run ability, but she does shorten from her normal 7 furlongs and that may cut her a bit short on timing.

 

 

16	EVOLUTIONTOWN   16/1

 

DF-spinround: Evolutiontown – opened the year with a win in the Grade Three Hurricane Ben Handicap at this distance in which she earned a 113 speed, this filly was off the board in two consecutive races before finishing second last out in the Grade Three Blackhawk Handicap at seven furlongs. This mare also has two grade three wins from 2015 on her resume.

 

DF-roxyken: Evolutiontown is another long time grade level runner who last won back in February, narrowly by a head. She likes the lead and lasting there has been a challenge. Despite not going all the way, she does have ability to take one of the top spots. Still, I think it will be a challenge in this one.

 

 

17	TIZZY’S STORM    8/1

 

DF-spinround: Tizzy’s Storm – co-second choice in the field with Alberta Storm, this filly has been running with no break for a while. She’s made seven starts in 2016 winning the Grade Two Davey Jones Handicap and the Grade Three Blackhawk Handicap, both with top speeds.

 

DF-roxyken: Tizzy has been busy this year with seven starts and walking away with three wins featuring the G2 Davey Jones Handicap where a 118 was sported on an off-track and another grade win in the Blackhawk Cup with a 110 speed. She can clock off those 110+ speeds which I really like a lot and I think she will be a menace in this affair.

 

 

18	WILL IT END  23/1

 

DF-spinround:  Will It End – this filly won the Winter Edition of this race back in 2014 at age five. She’s not the same mare she was back then but it’s fun to see an old competitor continuing on at age seven. She’s run triple digit speeds in her last two starts but this is a tall order for her.

 

DF-roxyken: Will It End is a former Equinics winner, scoring a victory in the Equinics Sponsors in 2014 with a 111 speed and makes a return trip seeking a second round of glory. She’s been lightly raced since capturing the gold and has only one win since this big win. She’s only had one start this season and finished third in an allowance. Nice to see the champ returning but I don’t see her on the podium this time around.

 

 

19	OCEAN OF CAPOTE   42/1

 

DF-spinround: Ocean of Capote – filly is undefeated in six starts on the dirt. All of those races came in allowances and at distances shorter than she’ll run today. She’s a stakes winner on turf but her dirt form is intriguing.

 

DF-roxyken: Undoubtedly Ocean of Capote has one of the longest (if not the longest) winning streak amongst all Equinic runners this year with nine in a row. The last two were on the turf and she comes back to the dirt. Despite the success, she’s a longshot at 42/1. She comes off a win in a listed stake, her first try at that level, with a 103 speed. Hard to tell how good she is as she’s won against softer rather easily. Could be the one to light up the board this year.

 

 

20	DARK VISUAL  16/1

 

DF-spinround: Dark Visual – 2015 grade two winner has hit the board in three straight graded stakes runs. She was third in the Bed of Flowers behind I Choose, third again in the Vagabond Stakes and then was second in the Grade One Princess Looney. Is this the spot she breaks through? Possibly.

 

DF-roxyken: A sprint specialist, Dark Visual has finished first or second nine times in 17 races. She’s been an exclusive grade level runner since early 2015 but only has one win to show for it, which came in the Wilted Petals (G2). With that said, she’s been dinging the board hitting the third spot twice and a recent second in her last three starts. Speed numbers have been creeping upward too and it may be not too far off before she strikes again.