SpeedWeek I: Keep Your Ion The Year Of The Sal
If you have a three-year-old that can sprint, if you did not circle 3147 as the week to point towards, you weren’t paying attention too well.
There are no less than eight stakes races this week for sprinters in the three-year-old division. Three of these are graded events: Florida’s Hutchingson is a Grade II, while the Swale is a Grade III along with a sprint in Minnesota, the EWC Tipping Stakes. The scheduling conflicts show, too: the Hutchingson is the only one of the eight sprints to get a full field, while the Swale and EWC Tipping both got fields of 11. Of the listed events, all but one race got six entrants, while one got five. Picking your slots could very well hold the key to capturing any of these stakes events.
I myself put a pair of moderate-to-huge longshots in the Florida races, but looking at these other fields, I might have had a better chance going elsewhere. Still, the division appears to be so deep and unabiding that all the races should be competitive regardless of the number of entries in each field. Size doesn’t matter. In that spirit, I chose at random to take a look at the compact fields in three of the listed three-year-old sprint stakes. First up is the $75,000 Year Of The Sal Cap, a six-and-a-half furlong dash in its third year. I’ve been associated with this race in each of the two previous runnings. My first stakes winner, Pueblo, was second in the inaugural running of the race in 2005, and he was beaten only a head by Lowlands Lutfi. And last year, in another small field, I ran last of five with Proposal, who was beaten just five lengths by Stone Boy. I bypassed this race this time around, but will be curious to see who of the six colts entered will be king of the Bluegrass sprinting corps over a fast track this weekend. Hey-ho, let’s go:
Indy’s Tempter [Devil His Due x A.P. Indy, trained by tombstone] has two wins in eight outings, and comes here off a fast-closing second in a Norway stakes behind unbeaten potential breakout Pass The Repellant. That earned him an 85, a career best which isn’t the best number in the field, but it falls among these rather well. He loves making that very deep closing run, to be sure, and there’s going to be a rather fiery pace here this time, but six-and-a-half furlongs, while he is 1-for-2 at it, seems a little short for him and his pedigree. His late run should reap greater benefits when it’s coming in longer sprints, but among these he might not have to need to much octane to get it done. Still, the last-out speed figure of 85 is a little bit short of others. Expect his last quarter-mile to be swift, but it’s unclear whether even in a compact field that’s going to be enough.
Ion Storm [Tale Of The Cat x Agnes World, trained by stellar1] is very consistent, hitting the board seven out of eight starts and earning some kind of renumeration in each outing. The sire is good for speed, and the son reflects this late in each race, with a good mid-pack closing run giving him very good runs. He comes in off a good allowance win in his three-year-old debut, which gets him a career-best 96 speed figure, highest in the field as well as the best last-out number, but this does marks his stakes debut. Now, for some the step up to stakes is usually a step back in their speed figures, but it should be said this field isn’t exactly the Breeders Bowl Sprint. He might backtrack in his speed figures slightly, but it might not take such a Herculean effort to get the job done; it’s still early in the game for most if not all of these. He’s 1-for-2 at the distance, gets a solid jock, and should be comfortable almost anywhere in the middle of the pack. As the narrow 9/5 favorite, he’s going to be tough, but he is tested for class here.
Outright Victory [Crafty Prospector-Queen Bushel, by Eastern Echo, trained by sorrento] has won four of nine outings, one of those a stakes win at 2. Indeed, he started off winning three of four at 2, including a stakes in Germany, but since then his form has been sort of spotty. Twelfth in a graded race on the Breeders Bowl undercard, a game third in his final two 2006 starts, and a 2007 debut that found him ninth turned this colt into a hard luck story, usually victimized by an inability to close the deal for himself or just finding himself ambushed late by better horses. He captured an allowance last out in North Dakota with an 89 over a small, field, which ideally should give him a boost in confidence. His numbers are quite consistent, even where the results have failed him. Stepping back into stakes action comes at a good week, where the division is stretched a little thin, and his close-to-the-lead tactics of stalking should feel more comfortable when there’s something up front to keep his eyes no. He’s perfect on both surfaces at the distance, 3-for-3, and has the ability to remain very competitive here.
Cool Bluff [Pine Bluff-Stormy Bro, by Storm Cat, trained by toplight] also has four career wins, in ten starts, and with his allowance win last out has finally run up to his potential, something that was a bit hit-and-miss at 2. He’s 2-for-2 at the distance, and 2-for-2 on the year, with a pair of allowance wins to start off 2007. Take note of the last one, which earned him a 93, by far a career-best speed figure. He was up near the lead, took over halfway home, and won with enough left in reserve. Here he’ll likely be up very close to the lead, and figures into the mix into the stretch. He’s a versatile colt, a stakes winner on grass, and one who’ll benefit from somewhat more conservative pace tactics, but was the 93 a fluke? We should learn more about his potential in this slot.
From The Inside [Speightstown-Unplugged, by Service Stripe, trained by thecrow] has never trailed at any point-of-call in his career, which, y’know, would be much more scintillating if his career wasn’t just two starts old. He’s fast, with a fast pedigree, and definitely wants the lead each time out. This is the big time, and 85, however, is not gonna cut it. Still, he’s doing the same type of thing I’m doing with Concentrate (1-for-1) in the Grade III Swale, in that there’s enough potential here in the colt to try and steal away with a stakes race. The respective fields are challenging enough, but they don’t on the surface appeal unbeatable. There is a distinct absence of potential leaders here, and this horse is I believe fast enough to continue to improve and mature alone up front. Will the speed carry much more than a half-mile, though? It’s clearly ambitious placement, but you gotta start somewhere, and if you see an opening in a listed event, why not dive right in? He’ll lead, but the last of the six-and-a-half panels is where the class will figure.
Langafleet [Afleet-Fried Camcorder, by Langfuhr, trained by hc74] is like a number of horses in my stables, in that even after twelve starts, most in the field, finding his niche is very confuzzling. He tried a pair of dirt races to start his career, where he was nosed out and then a respectable fifth in a stakes, before switching to the grass. On the grass, in his next eight outings, he broke his maiden, earned a stakes win, was stakes-placed, was second in an allowance, and yet the speed figures wildly varied from a high of 79 in the stakes win, to lows of 23 and 45 elsewhere. Then, after returning to the dirt, he won an allowance with an 85, then was last of 14 in the Grade III Super Bowl. Horses like these, speaking from experience, are confusing to figure, because just when you think they’re improving, they take a step sideways. I’m not sure quite what he wants. The grass has been more productive for him, but the wow factor isn’t there. The dirt has been pretty decent, but placement has been problematic. Here, the speed figures aren’t quite good enough. He should be satisfactory in a mid-pack roll, but he has yet to show a strong early turn of hoof or a really impactful late kick in the lane. Added distance might help, but a minor share might be the best to hope for, ultimately.
My selections:
1. Ion Storm
2. Cool Bluff
3. Outright Victory
Good luck to all taking park in the Sim’s SpeedWeek, and happy racing.