G3 Shawnee River Handicap

North Florida will this week host the $125,000 Grade 3 Shawnee River Handicap
open to fillies and mares, 4 years old and up over 9 furlongs on turf. It will be a firm track that will greet a field of 12 this year which will see a mad dash from those fillies and mares attempting to make ground late in the stretch.
The first edition of this race was in week 208 and in 2027 was won by Sim Hall Of Fame Member, Storm Dog. Bella Figura has won the last 2 years running a SP of 102 to win by just over 2 lengths last year whilst 9yo mare Apple Carbon is backing up from last year where she ran 9th, well beaten by 12 lengths.

PP #1 – TORGER – WORLDLY MANNER X A.P. INDY X MALAGRA (philipp) 7/1
Record: 19/5-4-4 & $158,138 – Turf Classic Ranking: 216
After all of her 3yo career and half of her 4yo career was spent racing in allowance and claiming company, this 5yo mare is now stepping up to Graded Stakes racing having not won an Ungraded race. She was in the money in her last four runs as a 4yo filly which were all in Ungraded company and steps out this week in her first run as a 5yo. Her last run, in which she was beaten over 6 lengths, was the Groom Dixie Special, placing 3rd and running a SP of 98 over 9 furlongs. Her racing pattern is to lead, however she is racing against some established runners and therefore could be a sitting duck in the stretch.

PP #2 – MUMBAI – SADLER’S WELLS X KINGMAMBO X SEATTLE SLEW (chilcoat) 4/1fav
Record: 31/14-4-4 & $1,294,810 – Turf Classic Ranking: 83
Although this blue blooded 5yo mare has a poorer turf classic ranking than some of the others in this race, do not count her out. Her 14 career wins have brought eight Ungraded and four Graded Stakes wins including a G1 Breeders Bowl juvenile and the G1 Thousand Guineas whilst running in the money in three other Graded Stakes runs. She has won her last three runs, which have been Ungraded Stakes and beat Ultegra in her latest run with a SP of 106 in the Holda Special over 8.5 furlongs in 3098. She has a versatile racing pattern as she can run from behind or lead the field and still run in the money. As there is no early speed in the race, she may stalk the leader up front and the draw close to the rail will help this. Her only start at this track three runs back gave her a one length victory in the Secret Turf Challenge Stakes over 8 furlongs.

PP #3 – LA PATA DAISY – SADLER’S WELLS X JULES X VICE REGENT (usoz) 13/1
Record: 34/10-10-4 & $2,736,695 – Turf Classic Ranking:161
Credit where credit is due. He may not have the more fancied runners but trainer usoz has two very nice ladies running in this race. La Pata Daisy has five Grade 1 wins, a Grade 2 win and nine Graded placings but has not won in ten races since winning the Little Riz Handicap in 2825. She has placed 2nd in a Grade 1 and 2 however she looks to be a shadow of her former Sydney Oaks and Oaks de English self. As her long turf divisional ranking suggests, she has a far better advantage over longer trips around 11 furlongs plus. Her racing pattern can either be mid-field or closer to the speed; however she appears to be more comfortable closer to the speed. She should be able to take advantage of the barrier and race further forward and could look the winner at some point in the stretch.

PP #4 – BLING(SAF) – HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF) X PENTELICUS X SOVEREIGN DANCER – (safrace2) 12/1
Record: 13/7-0-1 & $271,775 – Turf Classic Ranking: 73
Her first run this year saw her beaten by just over 7 lengths in the G3 Eloquent Lady Handicap and ahead of Dreaming Of Love over 10 furlongs. She was well beaten when 8th in the G2 Trash Can Mile, three lengths behind Cannot Comply who finished 3rd in 3056. Before this however, she put together three wins including the G2 Mrs. Cleaver Stakes in 3042 over 8.5 furlongs. She had a five week break before that her first Graded win and comes into this race with the same break. She is lightly raced and is yet another mare that will be looking to dissolve a big deficit between her and the leaders in the stretch.

PP #5 – APPLE CARBON – MARKS MILL X VICE REGENT X ADMIRAL’S VOYAGE (corza6) 16/1
Record: 39/8-6-2 & $300,509 – Turf Classic Ranking: 297
This 9yo mare was totally outgunned in her first run this year in the Classy K. Memorial Stakes beaten by thirteen lengths over 8.5 furlongs in 3098. She probably got too far back when 4th in the G3 Exploding Outhouse Stakes in 3105 over 9.5 furlongs and therefore comes into this race with a scratchy form line. Getting too far back has been her undoing in her last couple of outings and has not won since the Flat World Memorial Stakes in 2888. On a positive note, there are many fillies and mares in this race that prefer to race from back in the field and with a bit of luck they may bring her into it when they turn for home.

PP #6 – NORTHERLY NICOLE – DYNAFORMER X SUNDAY SILENCE X FAR NORTH (skiron) 8/1
Record: 29/8-6-4 & $599,853 – Turf Classic Ranking: 597
This 5yo mare has run on turf twice. Her last win was in 2811 when she won her first Graded Stakes and in her nine runs since, she has failed to add to her five Ungraded Stakes wins. She is an accomplished dirt classic runner dumped into this turf race through frustration as her last run in 3098 and first for the year saw her again running out of the money in dirt Stakes. Northerly Nicole generally runs in the back half of the field and may just stay there if she does not handle the surface. Hopefully she is adaptable, handles the surface and runs on with many of the others that run from behind to create a banquet finish.

PP #7 – ALMA(IRE) – EL PRADO(IRE) X MILL REEF X RIVERMAN (usoz) 11/1
Record: 21/7-4-3 & $849,470 – Turf Classic Ranking: 5
This 4yo filly has the superior turf classic divisional ranking due to a purple patch she had just prior to the Breeder’s Bowl. She won the G2 Roberto Clemente Handicap in 2944 over 8 furlongs by over three lengths, the G1 Demona Handicap over 9 furlongs in 2972 by almost three lengths and then in 3000 won the G1 QE2 Challenge beating Stormy And Spicy by two and a half lengths and Cannot Comply by almost four lengths. However she was then nailed in her next couple of runs including the Breeder’s Bowl and KyHorseman Oaks. Good first up effort as a 4yo in 3098 running 4th in the Beavis’s River Stakes and looks like she will run well this week. Alma runs from near the rear of the field which suits the barrier and will be rocketing home in the stretch.

PP #8 – CANNOT COMPLY – RAHY X KINGMAMBO X LYPHARD (super13) 6/1
Record: 20/9-3-1 & $823,935 – Turf Classic Ranking: 20
One Graded and four Ungraded Stakes wins for this speedy 4yo filly who will have her tenth straight Graded Stakes start this weekend. Her last win came in the G3 Diana Classic over 8 furlongs in 2965 in which she ran a SP of 104 to win by 1.5 lengths and was beaten by almost five lengths by Ascendancy in the G1 Sun State Cup in her next run. Her last run in 3056 was in the G2 Trash Can Mile over 8 furlongs where she was beaten almost 5 lengths. Not the best lead up run but looks to be in this.

PP #9 – ASCENDANCY – RAINBOW QUEST X SADLER’S WELLS X LE FABULEUX (lbgong) 9/1
Record: 15/5-3-2 & $712,900 – Turf Classic Ranking: 19
This 4yo daughter of Rainbow Quest has two Graded wins and three Graded placings in 15 races. Her last win was in 2986 in the G1 Sun State Cup on turf over 8 furlongs in which she ran a SP of 106 to come from almost 12 lengths behind to win by just over a length. Her last start was in the Slew In A Seattle Special Stakes in what was her first in excess of 8.5 furlongs. She ran a SP of 90 to place 2nd, beaten just over 2 lengths after being beaten by over 13 lengths in 3070 in the G1 Penn Turf Mile at Del Penn Champions Day. Ascendancy races from the rear of the field and must ensure that she doesn’t get too far behind.

PP #10 – ULTEGRA – WOODMAN X DYNAFORMER X CAERLEON (maruxa) 9/1
Record: 28/6-12-1 & $329,845 – Turf Classic Ranking: 263
Although this 5yo mare has a better turf long divisional ranking, her last start in the Holda Special Stakes over 8.5 furlongs in 3098 was good enough to convince maruxa to run her again over classic distance. She has just one Ungraded Stakes victory and has run 2nd or 3rd nine times over distances ranging from 9.5 to 14 furlongs. She tends to race closer to the speed and this could be an advantage as she is certainly taking on some accomplished fillies and mares that will finish off strongly and with her stamina, she may just be able to hang on. Big task ahead.

PP #11 – DREAMING OF LOVE – SADLER’S WELLS X MR. PROSPECTOR X UNBRIDLED (snowchief) 8/1
Record: 36/12-7-6 & $1,567,205 – Turf Classic Ranking: 17
This 6yo mare has four Graded and five Ungraded Stakes wins in her career. Her last win was in 2993 in the G1 Yellow Submarine Stakes over 10 furlongs in a solid 5yo season. In her last two starts, both G3 races, she has drawn the inside rail and placed 9th of 11 in 3056 and 5th of 8 in 3091. Her 5th placing off a five week break last start appeared to be a lead up race and Dreaming Of Love looks as if she will give a solid showing this week. Her only run at this track was a three length Ungraded Stakes win. She generally runs in the last third of the field and with a distinct lack of early speed in this race and her barrier she should rattle home in the stretch having had plenty of cover.

PP #12 – STORMY AND SPICY – STORM OF THE NIGHT X IRISH RIVER(FR) X COX’S RIDGE (mmstable2) 9/1
Record: 15/5-4-4 & $327,831 – Turf Classic Ranking: 55
This 4yo filly has not raced since 3056 in the G3 He’s A Charmer Stakes over 9 furlongs in which she was beaten less than a length, running a SP of 105. She has done all her maiden and allowance racing on dirt and has been switched to turf for her last five races in Stakes company. She is a Graded and Ungraded winner and has been Graded Stakes placed three times within those five runs and will be running from the rear of the field with many others this weekend. Her runs to date have been well spaced apart however this is the first time she has had a 10 week spell and there is a chance she may be a bit green in her first race as a 4yo.

Prediction:

At the jump: Torger should take up the running whilst being trailed by Mumbai and Ultegra. La Pata Daisy and Cannot Comply should follow them mid-field with Stormy Spice heading the swoopers in Ascendancy, Bling, Dreaming Of Love and Apple Carbon whilst Northerly Nicole and Alma will drop out the back.

On the turn: La Pata Daisy to move, Mumbai stalking Torger, Ascendancy accelerates followed by Dreaming Of Love and Alma knuckling down. Bling running on solidly with Apple Carbon, Northerly Nicole and Stormy Spice fading.

In the stretch: Alma hits top gear as Dreaming Of Love comes screaming through the pack. Mumbai strides out in front with La Pata Daisy initially sticking on then fading slightly. Cannot Comply attempts to go with the swoopers and can’t as they fly past Ultegra with Bling still hanging in.

On the line: Mumbai salutes as Dreaming Of Love and Alma fill 2nd and 3rd having gobbled up those dropping off. Bling to hold onto 4th and Cannot Comply to nab 5th just ahead of an unlucky La Pata Daisy.