Sussex Handicap – G3

1 1/16 miles TURF $125,000

Dry conditions over the past few days are expected to leave beautiful Epsom turf course firm for Saturday’s card, hi-lighted by the Grade 3 Sussex Handicap.  It’s an affair for 4 year olds and upward, and the entrybox overfilled for this one, so we have a full gate of 14 starters.  We’ll go over the field starter by starter, followed by the three keys of the race.

#1 SCOOBIS ZIG (Jump Start) illrunbyu

 He was last seen in the Grade 3 Laffit Handicap, a race in which he stalked the pace and faded.  Prior to that, he won going away in the Grade 2 NC Mile, leading on to the possible conclusion that he may have bounced in the Laffit.  He gets a good inside draw in an attempt to flash some of that early speed.

#2 DRACO (Sadler’s Wells) spqr

Has struggled in two starts since a score in the Haw Haw Derby vs. 3 year olds last year.  The drop to a Grade 3, and decent early pace scenario may help this guy’s potentially lethal late kick.

#3 BEYER BEWARE (Dayjur) lenny271

Bred for speed, this guys has anything but.  He takes a step up into graded stakes company after posting two decent allowance races, the most recent in which he was the victor.  His previous graded stakes experience leaves a lot left to wonder about.  You have to go back to week 2888 to see a graded stakes placing.

#4 ANDY’S CHOICE (Rainbow Quest) gunsynd

Last year’s 2000 Guineas winner has not visited the circle since.  That’s a seven race drought in which he has only mustered four 3rd place finishes.  Three of those were in minor stakes, and his most recent graded efforts seem a bit lackluster.  Will need to pick it up a notch, even with the services of a good rider.

#5 SILVER COURT (Silver Ghost) ts1442

Was a sneaky winner of the Grade 2 Geegee Turf two starts back.  Sandwiched between those two efforts after a a pair of 11th place finishes in similar spots.  One has to wonder which Silver Court will show up.  Gets the services of a 14% rider, which could make his task a bit easier. He’ll be stalking a decent early pace.

#6 CAMPILLO (Storm Cat) rafita

Tries a graded stake for the first time as a four year old.  He had some success in races restricted to 3 year olds last year, finishing second to the afforementioned DRACO in the Haw Haw Derby.  This one is yet another that will assure a decent early pace.  His recent longer efforts may help his stamina a bit.

#7 DIGGING THE GRAVE (Silver Ghost) zewango2

Old pro has racked up seven straight triple digit SP #’s.  All of those came in sprints, however, which guarantees that this guy will be fresh and a pace threat.  However, a wire job could be a tough task in a race in which half of the field has good early speed.  Lifetime record of 16 for 31 is out of this world.  He’s 2 for 4 going long, but has only earned $15K at a mile or over.  Definitely a red flag there.  Potentially a bad favorite.

#8 DREAMING OF LAUREN (Lear Fan) capncoke

Late runner was a closing 4th in the Laffit ‘Cap going a flat mile.  Prior to that, he won a couple of conditioned allowance races.  Despite the positive setup here, this guy’s numbers look a bit low to stack up with these boys.  Worth watching, but needs to improve to get the job done.

#9 FANTASY DREAMS (Flatter) puke

Horse by a son of A.P. Indy, Flatter, who had many problems throughout his short racing career, makes his venture into graded stakes company off of a pair of good efforts in minor stake company.  He gets an extra sixteenth of a mile to work his magic, and he’s another closer in this field of speed.  Shows improvement at the right time, so if he continues to do so, he will be dangerous at a price.

#10 ANSKAR(IRE) (Sinndar(IRE)) naturesway

An allowance winner in his last start against 3 year olds, this newly turned four year old steps up to the older age group for the first time.  Adding to that is the fact that this is a grade 3, a level at which he was a distant 5th in the Haw Haw Derby.  Not sure if he is ready for this, especially in his first start of ’07.

#11 UNPREDICTABLY T (Western Fame) xtchamps

Another who likes to be forwardly placed, this one makes his first foray into graded company since being a well beaten 9th in the Grade 1 Smackdown last year.  His starts since show three wins.  However, they were against 3 year olds, and his most recent effort against 4 & up isn’t so pretty. 

#12 OTTO ALEXANDER (Pulpit) erendira

Speedy miler stretches it out just a bit to 1 1/16 miles.  In each of his recent starts, he has been on or near the lead.  If he can work out a stalking trip from a bit farther off the pace, we may see this one still alive down the lane.  Dangerous combination of speed, class, and stamina make him tougher than other “need the lead” types in here.

#13 MANIFEST DESTINY (Storm Cat) tigerman

Went gate to wire in a minor stake last time out.  However, that may not be what we see out of this guy today.  He has shown the ability to sit a few lengths off the pace and pick off some rivals late.  If that pace backs up to him, he will be the one fending off the closers late.  Must give this one at least a chance in here.  A respectable 6th in the Breeders’ Bowl Mile doesn’t hurt his class resume, either.

#14 OLLIE’S GONE (Gone West) beamnreasn

The most dangerous late runner in the field, he will surely be running them down late.  He’s fresh off a win in the Grade 2 Sanders Stakes, in which he passed 12 horses to get up and win by three parts of a length.  He has improved steadily over his last five efforts, and shows no signs of slowing down.  Look out inside the 1/8 pole for this one.

THREE KEYS TO THE RACE

• TACTICS – What a pace scenario we have in here.  At least 5 of these starters will look to be a part of the early pace.  That will make going wire to wire a tough task in here.  If one of these potential speedsters can show another dimension and rate from just off the pace, he may be a winner.
• NEWLY-TURNED 4 YEAR OLDS AGAINST OLDER – Only a couple of the newly-turned four year olds have shown the ability to run with this crowd.  The most interesting of these is #14 OLLIE’S GONE.  He beat a full field in his first try against older in his most recent start, and did so by circling them all.  He may do just that again today.
• WAKING UP THE OLD STARS – A couple of “Big Race” winners/starters will go in this sport looking for a win.  #4 ANDY’S CHOICE is last year’s 2000 Guineas (G1) winner, and he looks for his first win since.  You never know when one like that will wake up again and run a big one.  #13 MANIFEST DESTINY was 6th in the Breeders’ Bowl Mile (G1).  A return to that kind of form may put him in the hunt for this.  #7 DIGGING THE GRAVE just reels off graded stake placing anfter graded stake placing in grass sprints.  Let’s see if he can stretch that out over a route of ground.