Start the Year Off Special

It’s the first graded race of the three-year-old season.  The seventh running of the Grade III Special Bid stakes has attracted a field of eleven aspiring sprinters to battle for a share of the $150,000 purse.

Last year’s winner, Ab Fab, has gone on to win three more graded stakes and is currently the number three rated sprinter.  The 2004 winner, King of the Cats, owns the stakes record, $2.5 million, and eight more graded wins, including a Breeder Bowl championship.

This year’s winner may not have to follow such impressive predecessors. None of the other four winners ever won another graded stakes.

As you look at this field, certain patterns from previous winners should be kept in mind.  Four of the Special Bids were won by favorites, the other two by a second and a fourth choice.  Only one winner, 2003’s Classic Cap, came from off the pace.  Finally, four of the winners finished first or second in listed sprints in their final two-year-old races.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Aljander (Noverre x Aljabr) fits one of the patterns of past winners: he comes here off a win in a sprint listed stakes last time.  That was the first time BM4 (9%) tried him on dirt and the improvement was dramatic.  On the one hand, the race’s history say to ignore longshots and those that come from off the pace.  On the other hand, at this stage in a horse’s development, when they show sudden improvement, look for even more improvement.  This entry looks like a shrewd gamble for the stable.  14-1.

2. Bermuda (Speightstown x Saint Ballado) was a perfect four for four in sprints until Super7 (20%) tried him in a DelPenn race last time, where he was never a factor.  Gets to meet a much softer field here and, as the top rated colt in the race, he picks up the services of the dominant Indiana jockey, former astronaut Neil Armstrong.  While he won the Montana Futurity by rallying from tenth of 11 runners and another listed stakes by rallying from last, a closer look shows he never fell far behind the leader.  That’s good news.  9-1.

3. Trainer RockZombie always places his horses ambitiously.  Apala Doc (Cat Doctor x Apala Destiny) is another surprise entry.  With speed figures some twenty points lower than most in here, expectations are low.  Let’s find the bright spot.  Twice in his career, he’s got an early lead, and that has inspired this colt to wins.  No doubt jockey Disher will be asked to scoot to the lead.  81-1.

4. What did we say to look for from past winners?  We like favorites, we like early speed, and we like a good race as a prep.  O.C. Matt (Afleet Alex x Giant’s Causeway) is the favorite, won his last two races wire to wire, and his last race was a win in a listed sprint.  In addition, the TheOC (14%) trainee has speed figures that dominate the field and a record of four wins in six sprints.  We need to look for a negative.  At this age we like to see improvement from race to race.  His last win was one speed point slower than his previous.  OK, it’s not much.  Beat him if you can.  3-1.

5. Scared of Flying (Flying Spur x Aptitude) already owns three stakes wins and tries graded company for the first time for trainer, Horseshack (17%), who has taken advantage of everything Mr. Kotter taught him.  Connections get a competent jockey and he can take advantage of a speed duel if it emerges.  We would prefer to see a bit more improvement in speed figures from two races back to his most recent.  6-1.

6. Trainer Mucha (23%) had to be mucho cautious last year with a stable full of two-year-olds. She trained All Square (Stephen Got Even x Alydar) to six in-the-money finishes in six starts, including a second to O.C. Matt last time.  The trend in speed figures (All Square just keeps getting faster) makes it entirely possible for him to reverse that order this time.  5-1.

7. Last year’s winner of the Special Bid faded in a route in his last race as a two year old.  Jarrod5 (10%) is hoping Busting to Leak (Elusive Quality x Storm Cat) can reverse his recent form in a return to sprints and emulate Ab Fab’s win.  The difference may be that Ab Fab’s fading came in a graded try and his three prior races were very good.  Busting is looking to reverse the form of his past few races.  His first two races were sprints.  His four subsequent races have been routes, run no better than his earlier tries.  The barn’s decision to return to sprints looks judicious.  7-1.

8. Gogo Gizmo (Midas Eyes x Smarten) is a classic early speed horse.  It appears if the Congaree2 (6%) trainee can establish an easy early lead, he wins; if he is pressured, he fades late.  It is certain he won’t find the easy to make, especially as he shortens up from his recent routes, so it looks like his best strategy is to try to save some early pace and use his routing stamina to come form just off the pace.  He’s been showing steady improvement, and it would be no surprise to see him pick up at least a share.  7-1.

9. The lightly raced Shake N Bake (Smart Strike x Capote) hopes for a speed duel.  He’s been improving rapidly for trainer Bandinni (7%), and we love to see that.  The bold step up in class against a field with a lot of early speed makes a lot of sense.  He hasn’t beaten much yet, and his earnings per race are only better than the 81-1 shot, but we think he has a good chance to earn a check here.  8-1.

10. Adrian2 (18%) has tried Ta’s Fearless Roar (Roar x Kentucky Jazz) in routes three times with no success at all.  Ta returns to sprinting where he has four wins in seven starts.  Sprinting speed figures make him a contender.  Stable’s surprising choice for a jockey makes a place look more likely than a win.  8-1.

11. LdysSecret (12%) shows great confidence in Ran Quiet (Quiet American x Red Ransom).  After three races, including an allowance win, she sends him up against graded foes.  Ran did try stakes once in his brief career and it wasn’t pretty.  Young horses, when they show rapid improvement, have the potential to continue that improvement.  We’ll see if that’s enough for this one.

Top Threes:

Morning Line:        O.C. Matt                 All Square               Scared of Flying

Speed Last Race:  O.C. Matt                 All Square               Shake N Bake

Back Speed:          O.C. Matt                All Square               Bermuda

Current Class:        O.C. Matt                Aljander                  Bermuda

Early Pace:            O.C. Matt                 Scared of Flying      All Square

Late Pace:             Aljander                    Bermuda                 Shake N Bake

Timmn’s Picks       All Square                O.C. Mattt              Aljander