It’s Vegas, Baby, in Florida

It is November and opportunities for three year old fillies to race against only their own are dwindling.  With recent races drawing the very top rated fillies, today’s Vegas Special, a Grade I mile on the North Florida dirt, is a great chance for some talented fillies rated just behind the top ones.

In fact, four of the fillies ranked between 15 and 20 are here.  Even with their ratings, favoritism is assigned to the sprinter Kepler Gnatet, here off of five straight seconds.

This is the inaugural running of the Vegas Special, so there’s no history to go on.  We can only note that the field contains plenty of early speed, thirteen intimidating breedings, and some of the top trainers in the game.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Jades Treasure (Gone West x Danzig) has shown rapid improvement in her last two races – right on schedule in her 12^th and 13^th race for TheBandit (18%).  Her speed number last time against an above average field of older is the best in the field.   She has two graded seconds: to the number three rated Zytown as a two year old and to Wango Tango early this year.  She won the last on the lead and can come from just off.  If she falls too far back too early, it will go against her.  8-1.

2. Lakuna (Bachelor Duke x Irish River) possesses the most modest breeding in the field, but trainer Rioja (12%) has to be delighted that she also possesses one of the best closing kicks in this race.  There’s no shame in an eighth place finish in her last race.  She passed a lot of fillies in a fantastic field in the Grade II Cotton.  So what if she couldn’t catch Breeders Bowl champ Armed With Money.  In all four wins this year, she’s come from last to first, including the Grade I Grace Kelly.  That win boosted her to a top twenty rating and makes her a dangerous threat here.  Only reservations are that, like most late chargers, she doesn’t always fire and the distance may be short.  7-1.

3. Prior to two races ago, In the Gold (Ballingarry x King Cugat) had never topped a 91 speed figure.  She’s shown great improvement in her last two, and Dundey2 (15%) decides to try her in stakes for the second time.  In that first try, seven months ago, she tried to stay with early speed and faded to sixth in an eight horse field.  There are faster early fillies in here than she is, and she’s never been able to rally from further behind than second.  That creates a dilemma for low percentage jockey J. D. Smith.  If she tries to stay with the early pace, she’s likely to get cooked, yet that’s the only way she’s been successful in the past.  Time for bold jockey instructions.  17-1.

4. It’s a milestone weekend for the LastHope1 (26%) stable as they make their 1,000^th career start with Espresso D’Italia (Medaglia D’Oro x Miswaki).  We’d wish them luck, but this high percentage barn seldom needs it.  This filly is winless in 11 starts as a three year old, most recently finishing a length behind Lakuna out of the money in the Cotton Stakes.  She’s a highly rated deep closer in a speed filled race, though, and with her connections she cannot be ignored.  In an Equinics route, she rallied from 20^th to second.  Though winless, she’s been steadily earning checks and points against some very tough competition.  9-1.

5. Medalla (Medaglia D’Oro x A.P. Indy) tried a route once as a two year old, but since then she’s strictly been a one turn horse for Sonsierra (13%).  Her preferred tactic in sprints has been to sit just off the lead and pounce late.  It’s been working: she has three listed stakes wins and four allowance wins this year.  How will she handle two turns?  With her tactical speed, she should be near the pace today as she stretches out.  We like to see ones like this who are willing to mix it up early and still have something left for the stretch.  Damsire says the stretchout should be more welcome than a problem.  As for the class rise, shouldn’t be a problem – she has a second in the Grade II Rapid City.  Is there a trend here?  She and two others here ran the Rapid City in Vermont and now the Vegas Special in Florida.  This must be the place for the geographically challenged.  7-1.

6. Papua Theft (A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector) parlayed a two year old Grade I win and some success early this year into a  start in the Bluegrass Oaks, where the Pick4 (25%) trainee showed little.  She was given a three month vacation off that and comes here fourth off the shelf.  When she rallied against a modest field of older last time in a listed stakes, she showed she’s ready to be competitive again.  With some deep closers and about six early speed fillies, she looks ideally situated to try her rally from midpack.  Only three wins in ten route starts, she may appear to be better suited to sprint, but the patient handling from a talented trainer looks to have her primed for a top effort here.  8-1.

7. That Right (Giant’s Causeway x Fappiano) has been involved in the top races for this year’s crop.  She finished midpack in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and witnessed the first 19 finishers of the Bluegrass Oaks cross the line.  There is some modest evidence this Super12 (15%) filly prefers sprints and may excel on the grass, but the Supers were encouraged enough by her last allowance race, a career high 96 speed figure, to return her to graded company at two turns here.  That Mexican allowance race included a couple claimers.  This is a substantial class jump.  In her favor is a midpack closing style.  27-1.

8. When I grow up, I want to be TexasAce (27%).  I used to want to be JockeyMax, but now I want to be TexasAce.  After last week, his Horseshoe Bay is a top candidate to be horse of the year, and from a stable full of stakes horses, he enters 15^th rated Unbridled Mistress (Awesome Again x Unbridled) here.  She’s the third filly in a row we’ve looked at that was an also-ran in the Bluegrass Oaks.  Her record on off tracks would make her an outstanding pick here had the rain come.  Alas, it promises to be sunny and ideal in northern Florida on Saturday.  With two firsts and two seconds in her last four dirt starts, her top 15 rating, her trainer, and her 21% jockey, the odds look awfully generous.  10-1.

9. Kepler Gnaget (Rahy x Nureyev) is the top rated three year old filly sprinter.  Maianus (15%) stretched her out to two turns last time in the Grade II Gowader, where she bid and hung to place against a pretty strong field that included Espresso D’Italia. There is a disturbing pattern here.  She’s finished second in five straight races, and is a beaten favorite in three (almost four: her odds 7.80 and the favorite’s odds 7.70) of her last six races, and she’s the favorite again today.  In fact, she’s been the favorite (or just about) in eleven of her past twelve races.  In that time she has three wins and six seconds.  She will certainly be among the early leaders here, and an exacta ticket that doesn’t include her looks awfully risky.  9-2.

10. Exile on Main St (Thunder Gulch x Danehill) has finished in the money seven times in seven dirt starts this year.  That includes a couple thirds in graded efforts for Super18 (19%).  In her last race, an allowance, she got off to a huge lead, and she hang on to win almost two lengths at this 8 furlong distance, but she was fading fast.  She figures to be on or near the lead here.  There is sure to be a battle for early pace, but this filly seems to run her race without concern for what others do.  12-1.

11. Wondergirl Elf (Danzig Connection x Storm Cat) was an upset winner a couple months ago over a high quality lool Oaks Stakes field that included a couple in here.  Since then, she hasn’t shown trainer Zeco1 (12%) much.  What would she need to return to her winning form?  In the lool, Wango Tango got off to a lone early lead with Wondergirl not far behind.  When Wango Tango tired on the sloppy surface, this one inherited a lead and won going away.  It looks more like a midpack race for her today, and she’s never been one for much of a rally from far back.  Also the lool was a wet track, and Wondergirl does her best racing on wet surfaces – the lool was her only route win and her best speed figure.  11-1.

12. Groomed to Romp T (Gone West x Blushing Groom) is winless in 14 lifetime routes, and, in fact after winning her first four starts she is winless in her 21 races since.  Trained by Pick6 (10%), Groomed romped to lone leads in her last two races but faded against weaker than she meets today.  As a two year old she led the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly for most of the race.  She has shown some versatility and can stay out of a speed duel if her connections wish.  She passed tired horses in the Rapid City Sprint and rallied for third in the South Dakota Oaks (which is actually run in South Dakota to the consternation of the geographically imaginative).  The suspicion is she is here to provide a hot pace for stablemate Papua Theft.  16-1.

13.  Wango Tango (Pine Bluff x Affirmed) is a speedy sprinter (rated 13^th in that category) stretching out for the Zewango (21%) barn.  She’s been dancing out to early leads in sprints and should be the speed of the speed from her outside post.  Her problem has been holding onto those leads.  Six times in her life she’s had leads of over a length by the second call, and she only won one of those.  The hope is that she can get that lead with less effort in a route and stay the distance.  It’s not such a far-fetched idea.  7-1.

I’d like to try something new here.  Many of these are perforce estimates, but here goes:

Top Threes:

Morning Line             Kepler Gnaget 9/2        Lakunza 7-1              Wango Tango 7-1

Speed Last Race       Jades Treasure 106      Kepler Gnaget 105    Papua Theft 104

Back Speed              Papua Theft 107           Wango Tango 107     Jades Treasure 104

Current Class            Kepler Gnaget              Wango Tango            Lakunza

Early Pace                 Wango Tango               Kepler Gnaget           Jades Treasure

Late Pace                  Lakunza                       Espresso D’Italia       Unbridled Mistress

Timmn’s Picks           Papua Theft                  Lakunza                    Jades Treasure