Spotlight Race of the Day: 11/3 Belgium Allowance
A wet, sloppy track is where a field of older horses will be running on Tuesday in Belgium. The seven horse field will be on the slop for a while as they will be going 10 furlongs in an allowance race. All runners are age four or older in this race and the race is conditioned for non-winners of three in the past year.
1 Kepler Gongo 9/1-Could be a value play here with this entrant cutting back a bit in distance where he’s had some problems recently in longer distances with the exception of a sloppy track win in August. Speeds have averaged 91 in his last five tries. Could be a surprise factor.
2. Implacable 5/1-Over the past six races this guy has finished in the money each time. He’s a strong late runner in long distance races and although he finished third in his last, he did not make up much ground which is very suspicious of him. May be a not so good sign. Only one start where he was off the board racing on an off-track.
3. Saddlemeyer 11/1-Looks a bit overmatched in this one. He has been racing claiming/starter allowance most of the year with one allowance race sprinkled in. On the dirt this year he has not finished worse than fourth, a good thing. However, the speeds have only hit 90-level twice in 9 dirt starts, not a good thing. It’s been 5 months since his last 90-speed, which will be needed here to take the race and this guy is untested on the dirt.
4. Monte Is Drama 3/1-A versatile dirt/grass runner comes off a nice win on the grass and after a trio of races on that surface he’ll move back to the dirt. He’s raced four times on the dirt this year with speeds ranging from 95 to 101 and although winless in this stint, he did finish second 3 times and third place once. This one is in position to repeat but he was off the board in his sole off-track race.
5. That’s Just Swell 5/2-In seven starts this year, this boy has done well sporting a record of 2-3-1. In his last start, he charted a speed of 88 which is the lowest of the season for him. He won the race by over four strides and was under no pressure to ride the number higher. He’s finished second in an off-track setting in two races in poor conditions. Form is good and he should do swell.
6. One More Quirt 5/2-Despite being the co-favorite, I have my doubts with this one. He’s had top three finishes in 75% of his starts in his career, but that was on the grass. On the dirt, he’s ITM only twice in 8 starts and he hasn’t run on the soil since mid-2014. He has one off-track race which was as a 2-year old finishing third. A nice horse but the surface is a big concern to me.
7. Z Speedy Road 6/1-Last three starts were all on the dirt with a pair of 7f sprints and on long race at 15f. He averaged a 91 speed but failed to hit the board in any of these events. He’s winless in his career in 10 dirt races but much better on turf with 4 victories in 16 races and speeds all over 95 this year on the grass. In two off-track races, he has a win (on the turf) and another off-board finish (on the dirt). Again, concerns about dirt ability exist.
That’s Just Swell had easy time in last and should be good to go here, top pick.
Monte is Drama is not out of the picture at all and could be trouble for the top one.
Implacable has that deadly late run. Gotta respect, third choice.