‘Classic’al Music : Breeders Bowl Classic Loves Bluegrass (State)
If you can get into a race, the Breeders Bowl can’t be beat. The best in just about every division show up to find out which colt or filly reigns supreme in the Sim (though exactly when dirt milers, filly and older mare sprinters and marathon dirt horses get their crowning glory on a similar vast stage remains to be seen). It’s a high holy week for racing in general, and the main event is once again the Grade I, $5,000,000 Breeders Bowl Classic, a ten-furlong test of champions over the fast track on a clear and cool November afternoon in Kentucky.
It’s not easy to draw into a Breeders Bowl race—no one knows this better than I this week, as my horse waited and waited in the #14 slot in the Juvenile Turf Colts down to the last second before finding out if he stayed in the field or got the bump (which he got bumped anyway). This year’s Classic proves you have to have been a monster on some level this year to run with the best, and you needed 224 points just to make the field as the last one in. If not for his fourth win in a row in the Windy City Gold Cup, Open The Gate would possibly be watching college football on ESPN2 instead of running late in the afternoon in Kentucky. I don’t have the statistics on how the previous winners of the Classic ranked in the pre-entries, whether the last horse in has ever won the event, but it must be said it’s an intriguing handicapping angle when it comes to picking a winner in racing’s championship bout.
There’s something for every taste in this field. The top three-year-old, Middle Jewel winner New Found Cyclone, is here, along with Bluegrass Derby and New Yorker champ Virtuoso and late-season resurgent stars Ermington Pegasus and Rhibus. The older horses are led by the top-ranked colt Solar Song, the speedy Wonderboy Cougar(IRE) and the feisty elder statesman, the streaky vet Sensatious, who has a four-race winning streak to match Open The Gate’s lucky run this year. There’s a case to be made for the newcomers on the scene from three-year-old Divine Inspiration, who had a helluva fall campaign to move him among the elite, and from Sinanju, who showed promise at 3 last year but has become a dependable colt in the handicap division at 4.
And then there’s the horses who are aiming at the Classic as a fountain of youth to regain some lost form, like Toy Maker, who’s itching to regain his springtime form, and Macho Niner, who has won four times this year but is currently making his sixteenth start of 2006. Finally, for those who like enigmas, there’s San Pellegrino, who has but an allowance win on the year yet has been consistent enough among the three-year-old ranks to earn his way into the field by hitting the board in major races, or maybe Privileged, who has been keeping a very low profile until late this season, when he all of a sudden began to bloom versus other sophomore colts in a testy three-year-old division. Lastly, once again, Open The Gate, the last one in, rides a four-race win streak while staying on the road not often taken by handicap horses.
Without even looking under a microscope at each, you can theoretically make a case for just about everyone based on their résumés. They have a lot to live up to, as each successive Classic rolls on by and new standards of excellence are set. Don’t believe me? Then at least humor me:
2005: Call Of The Wild II, 2:01 1/5, 108 speed figure
2004: Tuff Enuff, 2:00, 117 speed figure
2003: Silverwore, 2:00 2/5, 112 speed figure
2002: Horn Knee Sal, 2:00, 123 speed figure
2001: Mine Forest, 2:01 1/5, 115 speed figure
2000: Stormy Prospector, 2:00 4/5, 118 speed figure
1999: Gatling Prospector, 2:01 4/5, 110 speed figure
But, gentle reader, you know me by now. If there’s anything left to be said on any topic, I’m going to be the one riding the long wind. Therefore, I present to you a detailed look at your field for the 2006 Breeders Bowl Classic, Powered By Mike:Solar Song [Deputy Minister x Nureyev] Rank: #1, Older Classic
Best wins: California Classic, Sand Castle Classic, Equinics Eddie Arcaro (all Grade I)
Worst moments: 5th, Maryland Special; 3rd, Army Ruff Bonanza (listed)
What’s being said? Trainer squirrel4: “Well, I’m more confident about this BB entry than my only other one (I had one in the 2004 Juvy Turf—finished a dismal ninth). Some might look at Solar Song’s prep in the listed stake week 3000 and scoff at the third place finish, but that race was calculated to give him an easy prep following a pattern I’ve used successfully in the past. So I’m not worried about the poor prep at all – it served its purpose. He’s sharp, rested, and I expect a huge run.”
Under the microscope: With earnings over $6.3 million, this horse certainly has to rank up there as one of the best ever. He’s a deep threat, likes to sit way out of it, and close well late. Will the pace be fast enough to support the late run? Hard to say here. “If he drops too far back he’ll have a very hard time,” his trainer allows. It might not matter, as the races he won had modest paces in them that allowed him to make strong late runs. A similar scenario looms, as no loose-on-the-lead types are expected here. He’s a half-length from being unbeaten at this distance, and is 1-for-1 over this track, which gives him the biggest advantage, but with the sophomore crop looming threats, he’ll need every inch of ground late for his best kick. The only chink in the armor of #1 might be his last prep race; squirrel4 is quick to suggest that the race “was calculated to give him an easy prep following a pattern I’ve used successfully in the past. His prep for the Sand Castle Classic was also a listed stake, and also was a loss, but he came back to win the big race with his highest SP to date. So I’m not worried about the poor prep at all—it served its purpose.” Fair enough, but even on a medium effort, there doesn’t appear to be a reason why he couldn’t have won going away against listed-stakes winners, except that maybe he ran out of ground late. It’s concerning, but drawing the rail is equally arguable in terms of importance. In the end, it might be the intangibles preventing him from a crowning glory here; a serious foe.
Sinanju [Rahy x NijinskyII] Rank: #11, Older Classic
Best win: Out Of The City Handicap (Grade I)
Worst moments: 11th, California Classic; 10th, Sand Castle Classic
What’s being said? Trainer frosty: “He’s been up and down in his consistency, but after he ran the 114 to close out his sophomore campaign (in a listed Finland stakes) I set the BB Classic as his goal for this year….and he has done it. His upset in the Suburban, er, Out Of The City has been the highlight of my year…my one and only other G1 victory came six years ago. I’ve toyed with the idea of trying him on turf again…after all, he’s a clone of a BC Turf winner…who knows, maybe next year he’ll be going for the Turf instead. So I don’t expect to win, but we’re glad to be here nonetheless.”
Under the microscope: There’s trouble lurking here. Unpredictable Sinanju is here, in the #2 slot, and on form, the oddsmakers appear to be kind, listing him at just 13-1 in spite of being winless since the Out of The City July 1. He too appears to be a deep closing type, but his trainer makes no bones about it: “I don’t mess with his jockey instructions…every time I do he’s flat, so I figure if he wants to make his run from Nebraska, let him. Deep closers are my favorites anyway.” I have affection for them as well, provided it’s not a trend, but a raison d’etre, his reason for living. He doesn’t seem to like any other method of travel in a race, though. He was flat in the California Classic, and has struggled mightily in the fall, with a fifth in a listed marathon last out. This brings up an intriguing idea, considering that race and a second in late July over a mile and three-quarters were relatively decent outings, that he might have an appreciation for marathoning in the future. Regardless, he’s here, and looking to break his recent hard-luck run. Can he? He’s not the best deep closer in the world, but when he’s on, he’s really on, and running back to his last victory would take a solid pace and sufficient pressure, two things that are quite possible here. It’s the high level of competition, a field he hasn’t faced since the California Classic, which is his biggest burden. His recent form hangs like a shadow over him, and so he’ll need some kind of change in tactics from his jockey to shake things up.
Macho Niner [Macho Uno-French N Bad, by Pulpit] Rank: #9, Older Classic
Trainer: louisville
Best win: Farewell to CryptoZot Stakes (Grade I)
Worst moments: 10th, Cosmopolitan Handicap, New Hampshire Handicap, Return Of The Dragon Stakes
What’s being said? Solar Song’s trainer squirrel4: “If Solar Song loses, seeing Macho Niner (winning) would be pretty cool.” And this, from Kingman, in the BTB preview of the Windy City Gold Cup: “He has tore up tracks around the globe in his bid for preeminence.”
Under the microscope: A durable, dependable winner of over $3.1 million in earnings, Macho Niner is also somewhat susceptible to occasional “swooning”. He’ll have lengthy periods in which he’ll bulldoze over anything in his path, and then he’ll have times where nothing he does bears fruit. This fall, he’s “swooned”. The Cryptozot was his last win, back on August 5, and since then, he’s faded in the California Classic, led into deep stretch in a listed stakes in Spain, and ran a pair of middling efforts, particularly his last in the Windy City, where he never played a role as either pacesetter or stalker. He needs to get his hooves dirty near the front end if he hopes to contend here, as there are too many strong challengers to mess around with his game plan. Redemption from last year is on his mind, as he led into the stretch before Call Of The Wild II collared him for the win. (He was third, behind fellow returnee Wonderboy Cougar(IRE) who rallied late for second.) There are a lot of horses who’d prefer to sit just off the lead, so his back class and his jockey, a familiar face in Kentucky, will need to come into play. His last three races produced speed figures well below what he’s capable of against the best. He has come from off the pace in his pace, from further than just a stalking position, and maybe that’s what he could use: a shake-up in tactics. He’s certainly a horse capable of coming alive on a dime, but on recent form, he’ll have to dramatically improve to be a factor. Regardless, this veteran deserves to be respected, as he’s due to come around just as he did after a “swoon” late last year. Ten furlongs is his distance, but does the vet have what it takes this time?
New Found Cyclone [Newfoundland x Northern Dancer] Rank: #1, Three-year-old Classic
Best wins: Travelers Stakes, Princess Cup, Middle Jewel Stakes, Sand Castle Derby (all Grade I)
Worst moments: 8th, New Yorker Stakes; 5th, Louisiana Derby
What’s being said? Trainer ydrbargain: “New Found Cyclone renews the three-way three-year-old rivalry with Virtuoso and Ermington Pegasus. Again NFC has set up on three-week-by-two-week break schedule leading up to a major race, a strategy that worked for him to win the Middle Jewel and Travelers. He is kicking the barn door down to race and there are no expectations, only the hope he performs at his best as he has on most other big race occasions…and that he finishes ahead of his ‘mortal enemies’ and retains the top three-year-old classic spot.”
Under the microscope: He’s ruled the roost among three-year-olds all summer. But the Cyclone, who was running other three-year-old colts ragged between June and August in the biggest races, is being wheeled back on just a fortnight of rest. Is two weeks enough? It doesn’t bother his trainer, who, like with Solar Song, wanted to go back to something tried and true. According to ydrbargain, they are “currently 4-for-4 in Grade I wins off a two-week break, and now we are trying for 5-for-5. To set this racing strategy up, NFC was run only at Ready To Go in the Louisiana Derby and ran accordingly, coming back Needs Rest. I decided to just train him for the Classic but he came up sharp all by himself again two weeks ago and therefore was raced against older company for the first time for a nice second in a 107 SP. He came back groggy but again appeared sharp right on schedule this week.” That prep in Jamaica looks theoretically like just another listed race, but among the contenders were horses like Stormzapper, King’s Robbery(IRE) and another entry here, San Pellegrino. So it comes up a bit tougher than it looks, but was it strong enough of a test against elders to help him here? He’s a stalker, and should sit comfortably behind the first flight of horses waiting to move around the half-mile pole. He’ll have plenty of company moving late, and the distance won’t bother him, but do this three-year-old’s legs have enough left on just two weeks to put in a strong effort? A good finish will render the question moot, but I’m not convinced that the timing between starts since the Travelers win has been right enough for a premium effort. Nevertheless, he’s a capable horse who has already proven the skeptics wrong, and could finish 2006 with a flourish here.
Rhibus [Kingmambo-Pleasant Nijinsky, by Pleasant Colony] Rank: #4, Three-year-old Classic
Trainer: gradetwo
Best wins: Winchester Park Derby (Grade II); Florida Derby (Grade I)
Worst moments: 12th, New Yorker Stakes
What’s being said: Whirlwind, speaking on behalf of the super entity of stables and their entries here: “Rhibus has been a bit of a problem child after his brilliant juvenile season. We thought he was going to continue this year especially after his Florida Derby win, but it wasn’t in the cards. He raced poorly for most of the spring and we even tried him on the turf, but couldn’t get a race for him over firm going, but then he ran a monster race in the Winchester Park and was back on the radar and we sent him instead of Virtuoso to the Louisiana Derby. Rhibus has plenty of class but I don’t really have a clue how he is going to run.“
Under the microscope: It can now be told. The super syndicate is made up exclusively of air-traffic controllers. Spokesman whirlwind elaborates: “Keeping them (the entries) apart was important, and we had to decide who was going where for their last prep before the Classic. Rhibus hates the surface in New York and Virtuoso had won there so we juggled their schedules and probably out-thought ourselves in the process.” Virtuoso was third and eighth in two New York starts, while Rhibus emerged from two grass races with an authoritative win in Oklahoma followed by a major misstep in the Louisiana Derby. Indeed, Rhibus isn’t quite as scary since failing to deliver what the Florida Derby promised. Says one trainer, “I’d be much more concerned about Rhibus and his record (speed figure) of 110+ if a) he showed any consistency at all and b) if he were coming off turf.” The two grass races following the New Yorker (a badly fading twelfth) were an excellent way to parley a slumping colt into a dynamo, as the Winchester Derby was just a magnificent race for him, but the hangover afterwards led back to a bounce in the Louisiana Derby last time. Which is the real Rhibus? It’s unlikely we will find out among these, as this marks his debut against older horses, which could be considered a serious strike against him, particularly based on form. He likes to kick into gear late, but isn’t really a deep closer like Virtuoso or Solar Song are. The pedigree suggests there are limits to how far he wants, and though he did win the Florida and Winchester Derbies going nine panels, he has yet to fire going further than that. His trainer seems a bit resigned, saying, “If it means anything, he is sharp.” Turning back to a mile might be a good tonic, but trying to battle the best of his generation and his elders in one mile and a quarter swoop on his recent, rather random form makes his 31-1 odds seem unduly generous.
Open The Gate [Jump Start x Distant View] Rank: #12, Older Classic
Best wins: Windy City Gold Cup (GradeII); Return Of The Dragon Stakes (Grade III)
Worst moments: 8th, Movieland Shiny Cup
What’s being said? Trainer deantroops: “I am very excited about this four-year-old called Open The Gate, and I think he will hit the board and has a realistic shot of winning this race, my reasoning being he is in top form, loves the distance, continues to improve and last time out he won handily.”
Under the microscope: His trainer has been down this road before. “My previous best horse was called Start The Music, who qualified last year for one of the big races (the Breeders Bowl Mile), finishing sixth. His lifetime earnings were over $1.75 million with a Grade I and a Grade II win and he finished in the money seven times.” There’s no doubt that this colt is pretty hot himself, being only one of two horses here operating on a four-race win streak, the other being Sensatious, the post-time favorite. One small, tiny minor difference, though: where Sensatious won twice in graded company and twice in open, listed stakes, this horse did it once in a graded race, and three times in restricted stakes company. The form thing is good to have, but where one picks up good form is also important. However, it’s really not as if he’s a paper tiger. Indeed, he also won a race over this surface on Bluegrass Derby Day, the Grade III Return Of The Dragon Stakes. He’ll sit in mid-pack and make a late run from not far off the pace, and his speed figures are still competitive in the division. His ranking is still well-earned on the year, and the last win, in the Grade II Windy City, was an authoritative one, defeating last year’s classic winner Call Of The Wild II and two of his foes in this year’s race, Toy Maker and Macho Niner. A repeat of that one makes him a tough out among these, and his race there was the kind of prep race I like to see going into a marquee match-up like this. He’s certainly live here, particularly in exotic and message-board “pick-six” wagering.
Wonderboy Cougar(IRE) [Barathea(IRE)-Buttery Fisherman, by Polar Falcon] Rank: #3, Older Classic
Best moments: 2nd, Jockey Gild Gold Cup, Movieland Shiny Cup (both Grade I)
Worst moments: 9th, Bluegrass Cup Classic
What’s being said? Trainer karlch: “Don’t underestimate him: he finished second in four Grade II races this year, all over this distance. We couldn’t be more pleased with the way he’s working on training. Last year, we didn’t take any risk in his preparation towards this race. But because of that he didn’t have that little extra the big day. That’s why this year we went for a risky preparation, totally focused on this race. Everything has been going perfectly as planned. We have him ready the way we wanted to. Now all we can do is keep our fingers crossed.”
Under the microscope: He may not have won a race this year, but he’s earned over $5.5 million and has won exactly one-third of his career starts. And that, and not necessarily just his recent form, is likely why he was installed as the third betting choice in advance of the race. Frankly, it’s justified by his record of near-misses. Look at the performances, and you’ll see he’s been sent to the front and almost held on each time in the big races, with the net being four seconds in four Grade I events at this distance. According to his Belgian connections from the Benelux residency, all these things have been incidental to their instructions. “I think he made the pace himself too often this year. The jockeys simply ignored our instructions, arguing he was pulling too hard early on and they let him go. But I’m convinced he is a better horse when stalking the leaders. So we’ll insist his jockey will ride him this way.” So, as insurance, “We contacted SL Ledwith who gave him a good ride in the Dubai Sand Castle Classic to come over and ride him” in the Classic. Ledwith is having a strong year as the Dubai colony’s leader, which should help the entry. Does this horse want the lead, though, and if so, will any attempt to stop him work? He could be the main source of early speed here, but there is no end to the amount of pressure he’ll face if he goes. Still, he doesn’t rate well, judging from both the Bluegrass Cup Classic and Movieland Shiny Cup tries, where he never got started in the former and gave way late in the latter. There is no doubt that he’s been a strong old bird in the division the last couple of years. But after 33 starts, the question remains about his reliability at this level these days. Last year was great, but this year has been disappointing, and he’ll need a superior rating job to turn it around here; expect him to try and make the lead again, but without running away with things early.
Privileged [Gone West x Danzig] Rank: #9, Three-year-old Classic
Best wins: Morrison Mile (Grade I); Hudson Hawk Stakes (Grade II)
Worst moments: 8th, Heat Less Stakes (Grade II); 14th, Equinics Ron Turcotte (Grade I)
What’s being said? Trainer saver: “He’s never been in better form, and while he didn’t fare particularly well in his one try at this distance, we’ve got reason to be optimistic. First of all, he faced some of the top three-year-olds in the New Yorker at a mile and a half, and he was right there until the stretch call, which was well past the ten-furlong marker. Second of all, we’ve learned that he wants to sit back and make a run, as opposed to lying close. If he can relax early like he has recently, we think he can get that extra distance.“
Under the microscope: When pressured, the trainer admits, “Looks like a tough spot, no doubt, but how many chances do you get to run for $5 million?” How many, indeed. This earner of just over $900,000 is a late-blooming contender in the three-year-old division, who bloomed recently in the Morrison Mile and the Hudson Hawk, but those were against just three-year-olds; he makes his debut versus older horses in this spot, and as one trainer stated candidly, “I’m not as familiar with the three-year-old classic division, but a quick glance suggests that generally speaking they’re still 5-10 points slower than the older horses.” It’s a bold statement, but does it hold water? That remains to be seen. This colt’s campaign has been long, arduous and ragged, sometimes all at once. He won both the Hudson Hawk (at a mile and a sixteenth) and the Morrison Mile from well out of it, and sandwiched an awkward start in a graded sprint in between these; he hasn’t been this distance since a tiring ninth in the Haskell back in August, and in both attempts at going ten furlongs or longer, he set or stalked the pace and faded badly late, hence the recent game-plan adjustment of closing late. The change of tactics is a welcome one, but there are closers that are so effective here that he might get caught off his guard by the time the kicks begin. He’s capable on either end, but can he get the distance successfully here versus the handicap division’s elite? No matter what prognosticators think, the trainer is optimistic in his assessment: “He’s a three-year-old who is improving at the right time, and he’s always had a touch of class, being a Grade I winner at 2. Hopefully he can continue that upward pattern and be a factor on Saturday.”
San Pellegrino [War Chant x Pleasant Colony] Rank: #8, Three-Year-Old Classic
Trainer: super12
Best moments: 2nd, It’s My Birthday And I’ll Cry If I Want To Stakes, Equinics Clinton Potts (both Grade I)
Worst moments: 10th, Eddie Haskell; 11th, Bluegrass Derby (both Grade I)
What’s being said? Whirlwind, speaking on behalf of the super entity of stables and their entries here: “San Pellegrino is also ours (the super family of stables), but he was on the bubble to draw in to the field. He is a solid and honest racehorse with a nasty habit of finishing second in Grade I races. One day, he is going to put it all together and explode, so why not this weekend?“
Under the microscope: Doc CV’s diagnosis: acute seconditis. Four seconds (all in graded races), two third-place finishes (in listed events), and a sole win this year (versus a NW1n field over this track and at this distance back on June 17) equals a Breeders Bowl starter? Yes, and one would be wise not to ignore this one. His main prep for this last out, in Jamaica, was loaded with some good graded-caliber competition, and his late run for third was not just a solid stretch run, but it earned a higher last-time-out speed figure than Solar Song, Virtuoso and Ermington Pegasus did in their final preps for this race. He’s not a Virtuoso who can close from Bowling Green, or a Rhibus who has shown flashes of domination in his career, but he will make a charge from back in the pack, and could be building for that explosion the syndicate is hoping for. He owns a win over the track and distance, even if that win was only versus a field of a maiden, a computer-owned horse, and a stakes-placed colt, and only came by a nose over second place (and 31 lengths ahead of third), and even with his tendency to underachieve in Grade I company, his strong late runs in events like the Equinics and the Buckeye Derby do hint at some real talent long forgotten since his two-year-old season. An explosion may be imminent, but if you trust the way he’s been underwhelming this year, it could be one of those cases where a horse that was marginal at 3 comes to be a sensation at 4. Still, keep him in mind as a longshot play on the back end of a trifecta.
Divine Inspiration [Pulpit-Devine Cat, by Phone Trick] Rank: #5, Three-year-old Classic
Trainer: win
Best wins: Louisiana Derby, Swamps Stakes (both Grade I)
Worst moments: 6th, Morrison Mile (Grade I)
What’s being said? Ermington Pegasus’s trainer pigeon3: “The main danger in this race, I believe, is Divine Inspiration, who has been very good recently.” And knightmare’s Breeders Bowl Preview (Part II) states thusly: “Divine Inspiration is a three year old that has really seemed to blossom over the summer and got better as he stretched out. His pedigree does not exactly scream a mile and a quarter but his best race came at the distance.”
Under the microscope: BTB’s knightmare adds, “His last time out he not only proved he could settle off the pace and close but he ran a big 110-speed figure. That type of stalk and pounce style is very dangerous.” That, it is. His Lousiana Derby win came by just giving So Slew Me enough rope before lassoing that colt at the half-mile pole and drawing away as the rider pleased late, finishing under wraps. His trainer is mute on the topic, partially caused by a delayed flight into Kentucky for which he couldn’t be reached at press time for comment. But the best explanation for why this colt is dangerous is in his speed-tilted pedigree and his tactical speed. He easily wired his peers in the Grade I Swamps, and shared the load on the front end in the Travelers before fading to fourth late. His stalking ability is very solid, even as it comes among a field with varying and complicating tactical speed abilities, but it’s the last in Louisiana, with his solid middle move to coast to an easy win that should have most everyone’s eyes opened. In a field that sways more towards front-running types but without a clear sense of who’s going to go out first, he might take the chance and make them dance to his lead. The “X” factor here, though, is that this will be his first start against older, more seasoned competition, and even as a rising star in the three-year-old race, he still comes up a little light on quality, hard-knocking experience against the best in the division, having skipped the Triple Crown and the prep season, and in fact, only Ermington Pegasus has had fewer starts (12, to this colt’s 15 starts). Still, he makes up for it with his meteoric rise late to the Top 5. He has something to say about the pace, to be sure, and will be at or near the front, but how much heart does he have, and can it withstand the experience and discipline of the more hardened and veteran of opponents?
Virtuoso [Cryptoclearance-Fight Earn(IRE), by El Prado(IRE)] Rank: #3, Three-Year-Old Classic
Trainer: super7
Best wins: Bluegrass Derby, Corkscrew Stakes, New Yorker Stakers (all Grade I)
Worst moments: 8th, Jockey Guild Gold Cup, Middle Jewel Stakes (both Grade I)
What’s being said? Whirlwind, speaking on behalf of the super entity of stables and their entries here: “It is a very difficult race to dope out, a very evenly matched race with a very strong three-year-old group. The key to the race is going to be pace. It appears that it should be a realistic pace, so that will help Virtuoso greatly. He also loves the racing surface in Kentucky, winning the Derby and Corkscrew here this year.
Under the microscope: Who would have thought after his Bluegrass and New Yorker wins that this colt, who took two legs of the Sim Triple Crown, would be the second-biggest price in the ‘06 Breeders Bowl Classic? At 18-1, we could be talking some huge value here. And the super group can sense something, when they speak of their colt. “In spite of his race in the Jockey Guild, I’m expecting a good race from him,” spokesman whirlwind states. “I think we micro-managed him after the Travelers after Rhibus jumped back into form and sent a short colt out in New York in his last. If the pace is realistic, expect the old Virtuoso to show up on Saturday, flying down the lane.” In fact, the pace here should be solid and not streaky, and with that absence of a hot pace, Virtuoso’s virtuoso late move of closing from the rear could indeed be a live wire versus these. Why, then, is he such long odds, parimutuelly speaking? It could be the way he’s been trained up to this; he’s had only three starts since winning the New Yorker on June 10, with a second in the Clerk Of Scales, followed by a belated third in the Travelers. His one prep for the Classic came in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup, his only race against his elders, and his traditional run from the clouds mysteriously vanished, as he just passed tired horses late for eighth. It was an inauspicious debut against the handicap division, but one that figures to give him some toughness and wisdom here, and one that was compromised by Wonderboy Cougar(IRE) getting loose on the lead. The likelihood of a similar scenario is much less, given how that horse’s connections desire him to rate at any cost here. It is a mighty fine line between having a fresh horse and having an under-prepared one, and there’s the rub for Virtuoso’s connections: did he get enough wisdom from that last prep, or is the lack of tough racing since June a detriment to this point? He’ll come late, and loves both track and distance, but he’s one for which it could be said he could really need this race as a prep for a last 2006 start; we’ll learn more here.
Sensatious [Conquistador Cielo-Carolina Groom, by Deputy Minister] Rank: #5, Older Classic
Trainer: coffee
Best wins: Jockey Guild Gold Cup, Bluegrass Cup Classic (both Grade I)
Worst moments: 6th, Equinics Eddie Arcaro (Grade I)
What’s being said? BTB correspondent squirrel said before the Bluegrass Cup Classic that “This is a heck of a horse who has been brought along by trainer coffee in a very smart manner.” And knightmare adds, “He is always consistent and his stalking style means he will likely be around in the end.”
Under the microscope: Talk about stopping and smelling the roses. This horse, the elder statesman of the field at 6, has 16 wins in 27 starts, an exceptional win percentage no matter what competition he’s faced. It’s even more remarkable because this horse managed to endure a break of two years and four months and a shift in ownership before even breaking his maiden, and the time was certainly well-spent in gaining maturity and wisdom: he went from speed figures before the break in the 50s and 60s to a MSW win and a speed figure of 91 first time back. That is rather remarkable, but not near as remarkable as his eight-race winning streak that begun with his comeback MSW win and ended with a pair of listed stakes wins. And the hits, and development, kept on coming, as the horse has proved his considerable mettle at the graded level this summer and fall. He was second in his graded debut in the Michael-Strike Stakes over this track in June, and followed that up with another near-miss in the Movieland Shiny Cup, but finally broke through in the Bluegrass Cup Classic, where he just sat off the pace and exploded in a bruising stretch drive, finally prevailing over the fast-closing Strike A Boundary by a diminishing half-length. The speed figure, a 115, is the best of the recent figures for any contender in the field, and it set him up for an equally thrilling win in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup that equaled the stakes record and earned him the best last-out speed figure in the field. He’s the “now” horse, and the justifiable favorite here, but what could be the downside? Two things do stand out. He’s a stalker type, and this field has plenty of those, even as the pace isn’t likely to be out of hand, and this scenario favors a deep closer more. Then, there is the matter of seasoning. He has done great this year in hitting the board in four graded tries, but most in this field have more graded attempts in their histories, so, comparatively, he’s not as well-versed versus graded folks, even with the immediacy of his successes at this level. Most of his stakes races still have been listed ones, though he has more or less dominated those. He’s a deserving favorite with good tactical speed and a jockey who’s the best at France of judging tempo, but after two huge efforts in a row, he’s vulnerable to the whims of the pack, and to a “bounce”. He’s tough to knock, but he is a vulnerable chalk; it’s lonely at the top.
Ermington Pegasus [Sky Mesa-Secret Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus] Rank: #2, Three-Year-Old Classic
Best wins: It’s My Birthday And I’ll Cry If I Want To Stakes, Equinics George Woolf (both Grade I)
Worst moments: 3rd, Louisiana Derby (Grade I); 6th, Flat Land Derby (Grade II)
What’s being said? Trainer pigeon: “I happen to be very confident about Ermington Pegasus chances to win this race, because he’s been preparing for this race since his second in the Bluegrass Derby.”
Under the microscope: He’s the Bluegrass Cat or Strong Contender of the bunch, a horse who’s done exceptionally well on his own merits, but a forgotten horse in the shadow of the giants. In a year with Virtuoso, Rhibus, New Found Cyclone and the recent foe Divine Inspiration, no one remembers that it was he who had won the sophomore mile in the Equinics, or that he was a game second in the Bluegrass Derby over this track, missing by less than a length, third in the Middle Jewel Stakes, and a fast-closing second in the Travelers. People also forget he is 1-for-2 over a route on this surface, with a victory in the My Birthday And I’ll Cry If I Want To sitting next to his Derby placing. But then, it could be said that the lightest-raced horse in the field lacks the late-season breakthrough against older horses to put him on the map. The criticism is fair, particularly after failing to be a factor in the Louisiana Derby last time out. But this marks his first start against the handicap division’s stars, and the lack of experience is going to hurt him initially. His style is rather versatile, as needed; he can stalk the pace or make a charge from the rear in the stretch. There are a lot of both scenarios going around here, but the more he rates, the better I think his chances might be, particularly over a surface he really enjoys. His jockey hasn’t had the year he had last year at Dubai, but is certainly a capable rider with a closer on the track. He’s a #2 horse for a reason, for better and worse, but he’ll need something to run at late versus the Sim’s best classic types.
Toy Maker [Harlan’s Holiday x Darshaan(ENG)] Rank: #7, Older Classic
Best wins: Eviscerator Stakes (Grade II), Glenn Handicap (Grade I)
Worst moments: 7th, Windy City Gold Cup (Grade II); 10th, Out Of The City Handicap (Grade I)
What’s being said? Trainer darshaan: “We started the year very strongly winning the Glenn Handicap(G1). Toy Maker did not train well going into his race in Dubai and appeared dull heading into the race. The trip to Dubai did not catch up with him right away as he returned to the United States to win his next start, but he has been winless since. However, he has trained well since his last start, so we are going to take a shot and see what happens. We don’t feel as if we are going in without a chance. We realize we will be a longshot, but we’re in it and trying to win it.”
Under the microscope: Longshot? Not necessarily, as the morning-line cut him a break, but he’s certainly not helped by an outside post here. His recent form doesn’t do him a lot of favors, either, but he does have speed to burn when he wants it, and it might not be a bad idea to want it here. He stalked his way to his first Grade I win in the Glenn back in February going a mile and an eighth, and went out all the way on the lead in his last win in April’s Eviscerator. But since then, things took a turn for the worse, as he’s struggled in five successive graded attempts at distances nine furlongs and longer, bottoming out when he was a no-factor eighth in the Jockey Guild behind Open The Gate last out. The question is whether these classic routes are just too long for his front-running tendencies these days, although he has a pair of wins dating from 2005 at the distance in California (a track which tickles his fancy more). His numbers have been competitive previously, particularly earlier in the season, but in his present form, coupled with his dubious position on the far outside, bodes less than inspiring for his chances.
Finally, we’ve reached the chance I have to alienate everyone, with my selections for the 2006 Breeders Bowl Classic. It’s an incredibly tough call, but here we go with the selections. CVBear endorses:
1. Virtuoso
2. Solar Song
3. New Found Cyclone
4. Sensatious
5. Divine Inspiration
Good luck to all the Breeders Bowl contenders, and happy racing to one and all.