Can DANGER CAT Win Back-to-Back Stakes in the Big Hill Stakes?
We’ve got another beautiful forecast for the 7th annual running of the Big Hill Stakes. In a week with few graded stakes races to choose from 14 trainers send their two-year-olds to the gate for a piece of the $225,000 pie. Previous runners in this race have come from all walks; 2000’s champ GERI’S TORNADO is a royally bred STORM CAT X GONE WEST colt while 2002’s winner ZAFONIC PROSPECT was modestly bred, and maybe even a cheapie. Some were very successful two-year-old runners like last year’s victor NORTHERN BLAST (claimed three of his four stakes wins before his third birthday), while others were unknown before making the leap into stakes competition like 2003’s star SILVER BULLET II. A few have had less success in this race, but then catapulted onward to noteworthy careers including GOLD BANSHEE and REAL DEAL SQUEAL. Diversity being said, the front runners historically have a few traits in common; they have a handful of starts under their belts, they’re bred to be stakes winners (lots of colts sired by Storm Cat, Forty Niner, Seeking the Gold, etc.), and the oddsmakers figure they’ll be in the mix. This year’s batch isn’t as easy to categorize; they’re fathered by freshman studs, relatively unknown sires and top 100 sires, and come from a wide variety of mares. Let’s take a look:
BLACK JACK BLUES – trained by blackswan – 7/1
This colt raced well early on this year, going 3-for-3 to start his career. Blackswan has since moved him into routes at the graded level. This didn’t seem to be a good fit as he finished at the back of the pack in both attempts. Trying back at a distance JACK may be more comfortable at should bring some improvement and jockey A. Lageman may be able to steer this one into the money.
SPUD PICKER(AUS) – trained by bargiana – 12/1
This son of FLYING SPUR(AUS) has been improving in terms of speed ratings, but didn’t have much success last time out. He’ll need to pick up the pace yet again amongst this stiffer competition if he doesn’t want to repeat his last performance.
PROSPECTINGFORGOLD – trained by teamfoppa – 14/1
A son of freshman sire QUINTON’S GOLD, this colt’s best race to date was at this distance. Although he’s never won a stakes race, he has primed himself coming into this one by finishing only a length and a half out of his last race. Despite the odds this once could make it into the money with a little improvement and a solid ride from the respectable jockey P. Wolff.
KITTY HEAVEN – trained by onemore – 8/1
This light grey colt by SOUTHERN HALO out of a STORM CAT mare has been on a role all season. With a record of 3-1-2-0 he can’t be discounted in this field. Last time out, in the BLARNEY BENGAL(GB) Cap over 6.5f, he was closing on the victor in the stretch, finishing only a ½ furlong out of the winner’s circle. Of the inside post-positions he has run the fastest SP and pulling in one of the better jocks, K. Murray with a 50% ITM percentage will certainly put him in the position to finish top five.
SONG OF PEGASUS – trained by bayouranso – 5/1
Co-favourite along with his next-door neighbour in the gate, the bookies felt that this one was a pretty sure bet for the money. I would agree; his last two runs have been solid. That being said he came a disappointing second to DANGER CAT last time out. He stayed in it all the way through the MEADOW DEPOSITING Memorial Stakes, but just couldn’t muster enough in the stretch to get the job done. The extra half-furlong plays to his advantage, but is it enough to carry him to his first stakes win?
DANGER CAT – trained by stormbird9 – 5/1
Coming off a big win last time out, this colt is trying the graded ranks for the first time. He’s certainly up to the task with a huge 92sp in week 2986 and respectable mid-80’s in the two attempts before that. The question is, can this one come up big twice in a row?
QUESTION THE STORM – trained by jakster – 14/1
This colt took his time breaking his maiden, but was jumped very quickly into stakes competition. He improved dramatically over 8 furlongs, taking home second prize in a stakes race last time out. The return to sprinting may not suit and he may find it difficult to race against a quicker front pack since he likes to be near the front all the way.
EARLY PEAK(IRE) – trained by stupor8 – 11/1
This son of somewhat obscure sire IN EXCESS(IRE) has run the 6f course all five times out of the gate. The extra furlong in this one may do him some good since he closed late in the race last time out in stakes company and just missed the winner’s circle. The horse will need to improve slightly here, but the biggest concern is the jockey – C. Tuten’s record of 90-7-13-2 shows that he isn’t the most talented (or lucky!) rider this colt could hope to get.
CHEROKEE CONTENDER – trained by dan02 – 14/1
With eight starts in his two-year-old season thusfar, “KEE” is the most experienced horse in the field. However, that experience doesn’t include any in a stakes race. He’s been a handy type of runner, paying the bills with consistent top three finishes in seven of his eight career starts. Bringing home a cheque in this much tougher field will be difficult, and I have doubts this guy is up to the task.
TULL’S BAI BAI(IRE) – trained by hebbe – 13/1
Hebbe certainly has a colt with the speed to win a big race like this one, but his consistency in running those big numbers hasn’t been good. Assuming the terrible race he had in the grade I Horsehead Juvenile was due to injury, his performance in 2986’s The THEIR BOOK(IRE) Memorial Stakes makes him a contender in this one. Again the jock is a bit of a let down, “BAI” would need a pretty solid ride in order to hit the board and he’s drawn the inconsistent and if I don’t say slightly overweight jock L. Wilson. In my opinion all that sweating before the race impairs his judgment and he’ll have to have his game on to steer this one to victory.
FILIBUSTIER – trained by hohenlohe – 15/1
This son of FOXHOUND earned his right to appear in this race off a big run in the allowance ranks eight weeks back. The odds don’t tell the full story here… “BUSTER” has finished first in both attempts at seven furlongs, once breaking his maiden with room to spare, and then coming back with a big 87sp next time out. I’m not sure which of the following caused his demise in the Grade III Indian Juvenile last time out; the extra distance or the much stiffer competition. Hopefully it wasn’t the outside post-position because he’s drawn another one here.
TOUCH OF THE CAT – trained by dshock – 7/1
Dshock has got to be impressed with the effort this colt has being giving this year. Since a disappointing debut in 2874 this colt has been perfect; finishing 3-for-3 in a maiden, allowance and last time out a stake. This will be his first time amongst graded company, but if he brings his usual enthusiasm he could end up upsetting some more experienced horses.
SKYWALK – trained by unshaded99 – 12/1
Another colt with long odds, this time caused by a disappointing run in Trixy Delight’s Special Grade I Stakes in 2944. He came back well, winning an allowance race last time out. With his confidence restored I expect this one to run mid-pack – a respectable finish for a colt I envision as a solid top three finisher in the allowance ranks.
WOETTE’S OUTLAW – trained by stars1 – 20/1
With the longest odds this son of GRAND REWARD pulled the worst postposition as well to make his stakes debut. Throwing in an extra furlong and a much tougher group of colts won’t help this one move forward in his career with confidence. I’d drop him back into allowance or non-graded competition, try the turf and put together a few more solid starts before trying him back in a field like this one.