Surprising Upset in Store in Queensland
Train Station Stakes
Grade III
Seven and half furlongs on Firm Turf
$150,000
Fillies, 3 years old
We are here in beautiful Queensland and we are getting set to run down the Train Station Grade III Stakes Race. It appears that the weather is going to be gorgeous as it usually is here this time of year and we have a nice field of young fillies including two of the top five in this division. Let’s take a look:
1 – PARADISE ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 5/1 CoolDude 23.2% C.Wyatt 28% 100.5 88.3 34
(GONE WEST x STORM CAT x PRETENSE) This big brown filly had really been handling this distance nicely until stumbling in her last race, the SALLY BLUEGRASS Special Stakes. She turned it up a bit at the end but only finished 7th with a lackluster effort. That has to annoy trainer CoolDude as she had really been running nicely prior to that, even throwing her first triple digit speed figure the race previous. This may be half a furlong too long for her but one good thing is jockey Wyatt in the leather who has been burning them up this year. He may get her back on track.
| 2 – NOT A HONKY TONK(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1 | FlickasPad | 18.2% | T.Brett | 8% | 102.2 | 97.0 | 51 |
((NOT IMPOSSIBLE (IRE) x CARSON CITY x SECRETARIAT) Trainer FlickasPad has this filly taking a step back from the grueling Grade One circuit after two straight where she faded at the end. This will be the first sprint for this filly since her second race in her two year old campaign. She had won five straight turf races and was just nosed out in a GI earlier this year at a mile or a little more. It will be interesting to see how she fares at the shorter distance. She likes to park just off the lead so the post may help her cause. I’m not positive that the odds are generous enough here because of the distance change.
| 3 – MISS MOLLI WOLLIE(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/1 | GezLodge | 8.5% | T.Phillips | 7% | 96.4 | 87.5 | 125 |
(PERSIAN TURBAN (IRE) x PERFECT x RED GOD) How can you say this horses name without either smiling or grimacing? She has had a fairly tough year with one win way back in her first start in a regular stakes and short field. Since then she has pretty much given trainer GezLodge fits with her struggles. She came in third last time out in a nine horse allowance field. She will really have to step up if she is going to place in this race.
| 4 – COSMO GIRL | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/2 | TheOC2 | 24.2% | V.Wakeman | 8% | 103.0 | 96.4 | 5 |
(STORM CAT x GONE WEST x NIJINSKY II) I’ve been following this little lady for more than a year now and what a year it has been. Seven wins including three Graded wins. She is seemingly always in contention as trainer TheOC2 keeps her at the top of her game. This girl can win any race that she is in and I’m not usually one to bet against her. It has been two straight since she won but those were both GIs and I think she will probably prevail here.
| 5 – LITTLE MISS VIXEN | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/1 | TheOC | 6.7% | T.Bouwens | 7% | 84.7 | 82.1 | 63 |
(STORM CAT x GONE WEST x RAHY) This will be the first Stakes outing for this nicely bred filly in five races since she came up lame in the MADYSON’S HI Special back then. Trainer TheOC is trying to whip her back into shape but she’s been hard pressed to get more than an 84 SPF since then and that won’t win this race. She may even like a little longer race better but will give this a try.
| 6 – WANGO TANGO | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/1 | Zewango4 | 21.6% | S.DeBerg | 8% | N/A | N/A | 214 |
(PINE BLUFF x AFFIRMED x LYPHARD) Seven times in the money in twelve races but hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since a Grade III seven back. She threw an incredible 107 SPF in the GI ODE TO BARBARO four back but was only good for third place. She tends to get a bit tired in the stretch and usually is caught from behind. She will probably be the big speed horse in this race so trainer Zewango4 will have to get together with jockey DeBerg to plan the right strategy.
| 7 – ROAD BACK HOME(GB) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | SDMF7 | 15.4% | H.Arthur | 10% | 92.9 | 86.7 | 1790 |
(DIESIS(GB) x SADLER’S WELLS x STORM CAT) Nine times of twelve in the money is a super start for this young filly but she is entering her first Graded race. She finished third in her first stakes last time out and trainer SDMF7 seems to have her improving and on the right track. Could be one of those that really lights it up as a four year old. Jockey Arthur is in the irons and will certainly do a capable job as he always does. Watch out for this team.
Morning Line = 6-4-2-1
Yoss Tipsheet = 4-6-2-1
Paz Picks = 2-4-6-1-7
It appears to me that PARADISE will be good enough to finish fourth. I’m going to go against the crowd and put COSMO GIRL third. I think that WANGO TANGO will lead most of the race but will only have enough to hold on for second by a neck. The young lady that is ready to make a statement to the racing world this week is NOT A HONKY TONK . I think she will surprise a lot of folks this week and win the race.
Good luck to all runners!
Email your comments to pazjazz.btb@gmail.com. I love to hear from you!
