Evenly Matched Field Should Provide Thrilling Race!
Numbers Don’t Lie Stakes
Grade III
Six furlongs on Firm Turf
$150,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
We are here at Ostend watching the early morning training of these fine fillies and mares. Boy it gets chilly here early in the AM. Peering through the morning mist, sometimes it is hard to pick out which horse is which and this race is about the same way. We have several ladies that have about the same chance of winning this Grade III race and looking through their stats it is hard to tell some of them apart. But that is why they pay me the Big Bucks at the Bugler so let’s take a look:
1 – WORLD OF TROUBLE(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 9/2 ZWylde 21.2% T.Littleton 9% 105.9 101.7 10
( (GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x FAPPIANO x LYPHARD) Four Year old nicely bred filly that has been hot lately. Since turning for good to the grass last last year she only has one race out of the top two and that a third by a bare quarter of a length in a Grade I in her last outing. Trainer ZWylde has to be tickled to death with this fine filly who looks like she could compete for a long time. She is currently in the top ten and should be tough to beat in this race.
| 2 – PLOY | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | TCrowell | 11.7% | J.Barnes | 13% | 101.0 | 94.6 | 18 |
( (EXPLOIT x LORD AT WAR(ARG) x BOLD RUCKUS) Seventeen of her twenty two turf races have finished in the top three and she has over $500k in earnings. If you knock out the off race on an off surface last time out she really shines and would be coming in here with a two race Graded win streak. This four year old filly is about as consistent as they come and make trainer TCrowell’s job pretty easy. Just saddle her up, put a nice jockey like Barnes in the saddle and send her out to a top three finish. If only they were all that easy!
| 3 – CANDY CANE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Wally123 | 15.9% | Se.Morris | 10% | 104.6 | 100.2 | 36 |
(DISTANT VIEW x LEAR FAN x AL NASR(FR)) This sweet chestnut four year old has also been very consistent seemingly always in the money. She has struggled a little bit with the Graded circuit but was able to win a GIII last year. Her times are good but unspectacular but she always seems to challenge. Trainer Wally123 has done a nice job of picking her spots and moving her around and she is in the capable hands of Morris holding the reins. All in all, a pretty good team that may show something here.
| 4 – A. P. RIZZ KID | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | LordPye2 | 18.1% | J.VanDam | 13% | 109.3 | 99.3 | 7 |
(A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED x TIMELESS NATIVE) After a try at a Graded mile, this four year old out of Stakes and Graded winning broodmare DONNIE RIZZO is moving back to the sprints where she seems more comfortable. Trainer LordPye2 likes to move them around, leaving no stone unturned but this girl has won three Graded sprints this year and just missed another by a head. She is having a great year and would like to win one here and possibly move into the top five in rankings. With VanDam in the irons, that is a distinct possibility.
| 5 – WAKI ALEXIS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | ManOWar | 14.1% | L.Neilson | 2% | 104.1 | 94.9 | 20 |
(MISWAKI x FORTY NINER x STAR DE NASKRA) This five year old mare has had a really nice career with 12 wins and nearly three quarters of a million in earnings. She has a couple of Stakes wins but is still searching for that elusive first Graded win. Trainer ManOWar knows that her window of opportunity is running out and she needs to probably pick one up this year if she is going to. She has struggled a bit lately when she has left the allowance circuit and she will be under the guidance of jockey Neilson who has been just plain terrible this year. It would be a surprise if she picks up that first one here.
| 6 – MAN ON FIRE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | Lenny14 | 26.4% | A.Smith | 21% | 104.0 | 98.7 | 6 |
(WOODMAN x AJDAL x RIVERMAN) Great name on this four year old filly and quite appropriate as she has literally been on fire lately. Since moving to the turf for good earlier this year she has entered seven straight Stakes and Graded races and has two wins and three seconds including the Graded win last time out in the Hearty Appetite Sprint GII. Her previous two were Gradeds that she lost by a head and a nose. Trainer Lenny14 has her wound like a steel spring and is ready to spring her on this group. They have the tracks best jockey up in Smith and will be somewhere near the front at the finish.
| 7 – ACADEMY OF LIGHT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Sharood | 10.2% | J.McCarthey | 12% | 102.5 | 98.8 | 48 |
(FANTASTIC LIGHT x ROYAL ACADEMY x CADEAUX GENEREUX(GB)) In two years of turf sprints, this five year old mare has finished out of the top five exactly one time. She’s only run a couple of Graded stakes for trainer Sharood but has been competitive in those as well. She looks like she is feeling good right now and could do some damage, especially with McCarthy in the leather as he knows how to pull them across the line. There are a lot of talented horses in this race but you sure can’t cut this one out.
| 8 – ROCK OF THIRROUL(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46/1 | Crawl | 6.9% | J.Holmes | 11% | 90.8 | 82.5 | 510 |
(ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x SABREHILL x SWITCH IN TIME (IRE)) An Irish bred with an Aussie name only begins to explain the career of this five year old mare. She looked pretty good as a three year old after only one race as a two year old. She took off the entire four year old season and most of this one and has just recently won her first race in two years. A long layoff but it is hard to figure out what she will do with all of that extra energy for trainer Crawl. She could pop a big one at any time and no one would really be surprised.
| 9 – THEATRICAL CRY(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | DocPaul | 12.9% | T.Iommi | 9% | 104.1 | 98.8 | 69 |
(STREET CRY (IRE) x THEATRICAL(IRE) x NIJINSKY II) This pretty brown four year old filly strung a couple of nice triple digit SPFs together earlier this season and has finished second in her last two Stakes races. She needs to bump it up a bit to compete here but trainer DocPaul knows how to saddle them up and has her looking good right now. She likes to stalk the leaders and will need a good trip from this post to accomplish that. Iommi is steering and will need to be at his best to bring this girl home.
| 10 – TRIPLE CROWN HOPES | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | 3rdTry | 14.1% | T.Bash | 11% | 96.6 | 90.1 | 15 |
(MINESHAFT x DANZIG x FORTY NINER) A little late for this horse to win her namesake but she could still squeeze in a couple of Graded wins. She won a GI in her last race last year on an off track and hasn’t’ really had a commanding race since then. Trainer 3rdTry has given the old college try with different surfaces and distances but can’t quite get her back to that Graded winner type run again. She has run several off tracks successfully but there is no rain in the forecast and that plays to her disadvantage.
| 11 – CHARMING CHASE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/1 | StevenP | 15.7% | B.Campbell | 9% | 104.1 | 99.1 | 52 |
(SILVER CHARM x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SEATTLE SLEW) As if there weren’t enough in this race already, here is another hot filly. She is a beautiful cream colored four year old and has four wins this year including two Stakes races although she is still searching for that first Graded win. She has hit triple figures in her SPF’s five times this year and could contend. This may not be her absolute favorite distance but she is certainly a sprinter with a lot of heart and that can ultimately win most any race.
Morning Line = 1-6-11-3-4-7
Yoss Tipsheet = 1-7-11-6
Paz Picks = 1-6-3-4-11
A This should be a really great race as we have several ladies with similar styles and attributes. I would like to put CHARMING CHASE in my mix but I just don’t think she is best at this distance. I like A. P. RIZZ KID to finish fourth. She could move up but I think she will just miss the board. CANDY CANE should make a sweet trip and finish third. Staying hot like her name, MAN ON FIRE will challenge but fall just short in second by a short length. And making a WORLD OF TROUBLE for the rest of the field is the filly of the same name who is too strong right now for the rest of this group.
Good luck to all runners!
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