Mopse: Brother, Can You Spare a T?

With half the field rated in the top twenty, the Grade I Mospe Cup has attracted its strongest field ever, and this New South Wales feature race has a history of talented runners.  Five of the six winners have been millionaires, and three of its four retired winners have sired stakes winners.

With a win, favored Spare T(Ire) would surpass the million dollar mark, but he would be the first favorite to win the Mospe.

The Mospe has played fairly to all running styles – won by early runners its first two years, and by late runners the past two years.  Last year’s winner, Manifest Destiny, followed his Mospe with a close fifth in the Breeders Mile.  He owns three other graded wins and is currently ranked fourth among older turfers.

Here is a look at the field:

1. Crimson Warrior (Red Ransom x Sadler’s Wells) picked up a Grade I route win as a two year old but his last graded route try saw the Dowelly (14%) trainee finish well beaten by Spare T(Ire).  He stretches out from longer sprints, where he’s been showing late runs, to two turns.  That might help, but a lifetime best 97 speed figure bodes caution where ten of his opponents have bested the century mark.  16-1.

2. Ollie’s Gone (Gone West x Lear Fan) has been rapidly rising in the three year old rankings.  In nine starts, he already has a Grade III win, an impressive second in an Equinics route, and five total wins.  After his very fast win against a strong, if small, field including Hail Cesario last time, trainer Beamnreasn (13%) ships down from the British Isles.  He’s shown he belongs at this level, though he was beaten my Hail Cesario and Cryptotrick two races back and by Spare T(Ire) the race before that.  8-1.

3. Hail Cesario (Seeking the Gold x Northern Dancer) broke his three race win streak last time in his loss to Ollie’s Gone, but this Catahoula (22%) trained colt looks ready to rebound.  He was five for five as a two year old, struggled a bit the beginning of his three year old campaign, but has been nearly unstoppable since his surprising second in the 2000 Guineas.  Seven wins in 12 turf route tries.  6-1.

4. Always Improving (Trempolino x Silver Deputy) has beaten four horses in his last three tries in graded stakes, but Rhafo7 (11%) was happy enough with last time’s second against a modest field in a listed route to try the return to top flight racing.  The Breeders Bowl Juvenile champ is coming off a ten week freshening, longest of his career.  He owns a top 14 rating, but it looks like his greatest glory is in his past.   Jockey won this race in 2001 aboard a longshot.  17-1.

5. Ride for Show (Indian Ridge x Bold Bidder) has ridden her relatively modest breeding to much better than show finishes.  Unfortunately only one of her seven wins came in a stakes.  The Flurgen5 (14%) trainee followed that win with an impressive win in a Grade II stakes.  Dismiss the following race because it was against older and the last, I suppose, because of the off track, and you’re still facing the filly against boys angle.  She’s tried it twice before, finishing third of five and first of four, but this looks tough.  In her favor, she likes to run early and there is not much early pace here.  13-1.

6. Vermont Victory (Two Punch x Theatrical) has had a steady diet of graded stakes, 11 of his last 13 races have been at this level.  But none of those eleven starts ended in victory for the WTAS (16%) barn.  He’s come close with several in-the-money finishes, especially in sprints.  He appears off form based on the last couple.  Would be a surprise.  12-1.

7. Trainer TS1442 (11%) enters a pair, uncoupled in the betting pool.  Cryptotrick (Cryptoclearance x Phone Trick) has tried graded stakes twice.  Two races back, he made a strong bid in the Grade II Sussex only to fade and lose to Hail Cesario by over six.  He is at his best when he can sit just off the early leaders and pounce late.  That’s a strategy that has worked in half of the Mospe’s history, but this one doesn’t look like it’s going to set up that way, and his recent form, including a disappointing four length loss last time in an allowance, does not inspire confidence.  10-1.

8. TS1442’s other entry, Silver Court (Silver Ghost x Danehill), is coming off a pair of apparently very dull efforts, but they might not be as bad as they first appear.  He tried to participate in hot early paces both times and faded with the other early runners.  The pace here should not be that fast.  Three races back he was ahead of Spare T(Ire) by nearly two at the top of the lane, though that one corralled him easily.  Probably not the winner, his lone graded win came against a modest field, but he probably is an overlay at this price.  14-1.

9. D.H. (Roar x Shahrastani) tried a graded stakes for the first time last out.  It was not pretty.  Trainer Hillbilly (7%) hopes for a lot of improvement off the experience.  Closer has a good record of finishing in the money and has a chance to delight trifecta players who select “all” for third.  17-1.

10. Depravity (Red Bullet x Deputy Minister) has only tried the grass twice, both times against older.  His first try, two back, was a very nice second in a listed stakes where he gained about 80 lengths in the stretch.  Could not make that much headway in his graded try.  Trainer Funster (20%) has to be disappointed to see the likely lack of a speed duel in front of this deep closer.  Funster is closing in on 250 wins.  I said 250 wins.  6-1.

11. Refuse to Bend is one of the most prolific sim-sires the past couple years.  He has 110 three year olds running.  Four of those are graded winners, including Devil’s King (Refuse to Bend x Cozzene).  SteveSutto (14%) has trained him to show steady improvement over the past five races.  King lost to three of these in his first race of the year, but has turned the tables on Silver Court most recently and looks very sharp off two straight wins.  Another with a stalking style.   8-1.

12. Luca Brasi (Dixieland Band x Sadler’s Wells) earned a 103 speed figure in winning for fun against allowance foes last time.   CrazyJoe (19%) stretches him out and moves him up.  He’s tried routes twice.  Most recently he showed he wants no part of running a mile and a half (and who can blame him?).  But seven races ago he tried something close to this distance and ran better than in the races just prior and just after that.  Still lightly raced enough that stable is looking for the right surface/distance for him.  Very fit, possibly at best distance, and an attractive price.  The only drawback for CrazyJoe is if this one falters, is it because of distance or class?  12-1.

13. The longest price on the board goes to Hollow Sun (Beat Hollow x Fantastic Light).  With four in-the-money finishes in his six route tries that may seem harsh, but the Favoritejj (11%) trained colt looks like an easy throw-out based on speed figures.  We don’t like to throw out prices like this.  We should note that in the only race where he got the early lead, he won.  He figures to get the early lead if he wants it.  27-1.

14. How many times in the first 13 reviews have we noted the entrant had been beaten by Spare T(Ire) (Theatrical x Danehill)?  We should have noted his record this year against this field is seven times he has beaten horses in here and once he finished behind one.  We should also note his handling by Super28 (18%).  They’ve decided he’s an eight furlong turf horse and for the twelfth time in thirteen races, he’s running an eight furlong turf race.  Very steady runner is always tough to pick against.  Jockey won this race last year.  5-1.

Morning line: 14-3-10-2

Timmn’s Picks: 14-2-3-12