Big Race Preview 2993

As we near the Breeder’s Bowl the Preps are heating up. We have some three year olds looking to wrap up solid preps for the Classic, fillies and mares for both the dirt and turf distaff, three year old milers on turf and three year old sprinting fillies. Grab your favorite beverage and enjoy what looks like a great weekend of racing.

Race: 2993.0515 LA Derby – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Louisiana
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Dirt

The top two favorites here renew an ongoing rivalry as they face off for the fourth time this year. New Found Cyclone has finished ahead of Ermington Pegasus in two of the three meetings, the Middle Jewel and the Travelers. Ermington Pegasus finished ahead of New Found Cyclone in the Bluegrass Derby when he just got run down by Virtuoso at the wire.

These two have been handled differently thus far by their trainers. New Found Cyclone seems to be following a somewhat typical pattern for a good three year old sim horse. He had five races as a two year old and this will be race number twelve for New Found Cyclone in his three year old season. He may not have much left as a four year old. Ermington Pegasus on the other hand only had three starts as a two year old and is making just his ninth start of the year. 

Ermington Pegasus could be a good case study for sim trainers as to whether or not more rest between starts will indeed prolong a sim dirt runner’s career especially when that runner is competing at the top of his division as a three year old. New Found Cyclone will be stalking and Ermington Pegasus will be coming from off the pace. Both look very tough in this spot.

Divine Inspiration just discovered route races and what do you know he appears to like them. With blazing speed he is a danger but there is a very real chance this distance is a little too far for him. Rhibus is a very interesting looking runner here. He used the turf to dirt angle to perfection jumping from mid 90’s speed figures to a huge 112 last time out back on the dirt. Does he have a new found form?

Baffin Bay is an interesting late bloomer. He has made the allowance to grade I jump before and earned a check in that grade I although finishing well back. He has graduated from his allowance conditions and looks like he fits well based on his speed figures. Intergalactic is an honest horse that was second in the Middle Jewel, the Princess Stakes and the Swamps before totally laying an egg in Travelers. He could very well bounce back and should not be overlooked.  

Race: 2993.0416 Gallorette Handicap – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New York
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

Wild Cat Tales is currently having the type of run that deservers end of the year honors consideration if she can keep it up. She has ripped off three in a row moving up the graded ladder each time. A grade III then a grade II then a grade I last time out. Her speed figures are significantly better than most in this field and that is why she is a bit of a heavy favorite.

Caddilac Moon is the second favorite. She was a pretty good three year old filly and at the beginning of this year she took the grade I Orange Blossom. She has struggled to keep up since then with a string of off the board finishes. Still she is capable of the big speed figure and if she comes out and is on the pace she is probably on her game.

Donner has been pretty good at much longer distances. She still has been running very good speed figures that far and usually when runners like this cut back they show up. It has been a while since she ran at this distance and most of her best races have been at further distances. She may very well have the speed to keep pace early and she will not lack for stamina in the end.

Race: 2993.0114 Yellow Submarine Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: California
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Turf

Just nine fillies and mares line up for this Breeder’s Bowl Turf Distaff prep race. The top five betting choices are all close together and talented so we should get a pretty good race. Dreaming of Love is the every so slight morning line favorite. She has only attempted graded company twice this year where she has a grade III win and did not do so well in her lone grade I attempt. She is a middle of the pack closer most times and is in pretty good form right now coming off strong back to back performances.

Getaloadofthis, Tommy and Estrogen are all second choices on the morning line. Getaloadofthis has had a solid year. In her last two she has hit the board in grade I stakes and prior to that had won five in a row. She might be a little better at longer distances but she holding good form and her middle closing style she keep her in the thick of things. Tommy had some electrifying speed figures at the beginning of this year but has cooled off a bit since. Last time out she ran a solid second in a grade I despite the speed figure not being real high. She likes to stalk and should not be far off the pace.

Estrogen won this race last year in gate to wire fashion and is likely to try the same thing this year. She is fresh off a grade II win on the dirt at a mile and a half and has had success on both surfaces. With no pressure early she could be very dangerous. The three year old Tenacious V picks a great spot to go after her elders for the first time. On paper she really does look like the most likely winner. Her speed figures are superior although at a little shorter distance. She won one of the biggest three year old filly turf races the 1000 Guineas. She is fresh off another grade I win and if she can kick home from the back of the pack as usual she has a very good chance here.

Race: 2993.5415 Mospe Cup – Grade I – $600,000
Track: New South Wales
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

A very solid field of three year old milers have come together lead by Spare T (IRE). He is one of the best of his class so far despite a fourth place finish in the 2000 Guineas. He has since won a grade I and a grade III while just missing in another grade I. His speed figures have been consistent and he likes to come from off the pace.

Hail Cesario finished ahead of the favorite in the 2000 Guineas with a second place finish. He followed that up with three straight wins including a couple of grade II events. Hail Cesario was not himself last time out running evenly in a listed stakes. Do not count this one out off his last though he has some of the best speed figures in the race. Depravity has yet to win on turf but one of his best career speed figures came on the turf. He still needs to prove he belongs with company like this on this surface.

Ollie’s Gone ran huge last time out dropping back into a listed stakes after a couple of dull finishes in graded company. He is a grade III winner and based on his last can run with these. He likes to stalk and pounce so look for him to be forwardly placed. Devil’s King (IRE) has won two in a row since dropping back in distance. Last time out he won the grade II Boston Derby. The one thing against him is experience at the distance. This can be a distance that really lends itself to runner that have the experience so he might be on the outside looking in.   

Race: 2993.0316 The Remember Cupid Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: Kentucky
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: Six and one half furlongs on the Dirt

A full field of three year old fillies sprinting, that means fourteen runners with legitimate shots at winning. When the favorites are 7/1 you know you have a competitive field. Skippy is one of the favorites. She won the grade I Exam Stakes two races back. She comes from way down town but has an impressive five wins from seven sprint starts. She ran second in a grade II route race last time out so she looks like the one to beat.

Kepler Gnaget has been in listed stakes since her grade I win at the Equinics back in February. She picks now to make a return to the grade I level. She is a front runner and ran a big speed figure two races back. Thnxmsslew is the number one ranked filly in the sprint division. She was a great two year old and has been a solid three year old. A win here is not out of the question despite her last three races not being all that great.